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Author Topic: Trading on the financial Market?  (Read 2974 times)

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #45 on: March 06, 2017, 06:48:45 PM »
Well the idea of writing started when i began this topic actually. But the effectuation will be something for somewhere in  a further future.

the priority is my own trading for now. I wont get to the writing part until , everything about my own trading style and techniques is in perfect condition.

Until recently i had not invested in reading US books, although i know the quality of content is better than books in my own language. I made that decision because my method works everywhere but the US. So i'm trying to adjust i few things.

To answer your question, honestly i haven't decided yet because of 2 of 3 things

the intention is to cover all the important stuff that is actually usefull, and cut of all the useless crap stuff. most of the time when you purchase a book , only 10 to 20% is actually of value. wouldn't you prefer to have 1 book that covers everything, instead of having to buy  books on  several related stuff, without being sure it will be worth the investment.

the idea of combining that with an educational program / face to face training course. where all that is mentioned in the book is put into pratice. Just to make sure what i state in my book someday isn't just talk. I want everyone that actually tries out my book the be able to implement it on his own, and see for yourself with the training course, that when you put the content of the book in pratice it actually will work.

simply because reading books only wont make you a trader.And only doing papertrading by folowing the markets, without any actual knowledge wont get you anywere.

I wont be 'selling' dreams but the idea is i would be offering all the tools neseccary to succeed.

the things that make me doubt of actually charge or not are the following:

1 stocket market, trading, and technical analysis books in my language are mostly just basic stuff. So over here there is potential for selling a book that covers a lot more and goes deeper.

2 most private traders will tell , why should a succesfull trader write about trading, he doesn't need it?

3 and if a writer is an unsuccesful trader, why bother buying a book?

By this logic there shouldn't be any books about stocks, investing, trading on the market.

that doesn't make sense does it?

By all means when a trader is actually writing a book thats because he thinks he has something of value.

the above statements only come from traders who are frustrated and therefor become extremely sceptical, because they dont succeed.

to give an example Jesse Livermore is considered the best there ever was. Why would anybody clame that? livermore went bankrupt and actualy commited suicide. Although the book about the life of jesse livermore is considered the best book there is. Why would anyone state this as the best book , if its about a person that went  bankrupt several times??

One other example:

Mark Douglas is considered an authority when it comes to the psychology of a trader. his writing style isn't much tho (to much dragging around), but the message holds a lot of value. many have a problem with him tho, because he wasn't succesfull in trading himself (which he admits in his book). But what did he do? he focused on traders that were succesfull, he followed them, and than compared with other traders, only to see what divides succesfull traders from other traders. His conclusion was that the mindset and psychology made a huge difference. so his books are about his own study of succesfull traders, instead of talking from own experience. I guess not many are actually aware of this.

And you have the morrons too that dare to say i havent learned anything from this book (any psychology book about trading). Yeah sure. A psychology trading book, does not learn you how to trade. But it is an important asset which is often overlooked.

Trading is hard, very hard. ecspecially mentally. who neglects this, wont ever become succesfull. this may sound stupid but it all starts with simple things as respecting your sleeping hours, being in shape fysically, and healthy. how you suppose to perform well on the market, if you dont respect these things. Being sharp and alert is of highest importants.

I appologise for dragging on a bit
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #46 on: March 06, 2017, 07:19:56 PM »
 You are simply right, Geoffrey.
    Best thing player can do is to drink a cup of water. Be it roulette, markets or any other game for this matter.
    These who not control themselves about basic things like sleeping or being alert while play, they shouldn't play at all.
 
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ShadowBlue

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #47 on: March 10, 2017, 02:27:09 PM »
My first post here of course not about roulette why ? Very simple trading is so much more profitable then gambling. And it also  much easier to achieve long term profits.

Is trading hard ? No not for me. Found a very good site about trading. Best indicator for trading is PRICE.

I am trading price action higher time frames for big picture view and the 1-hour time frame for entry- and exit points.

Every week different good set ups trading Oil and GBP-JPY. They say the mental side counts for 90% in trading.

Yes it is important. But i became profitable when i only began to buy and sell at very important points.

Those points are all  close and at round numbers and midpoints.

Why because round numbers and midpoints heavily influenced traders and created psychological levels of support and resistance in the markets.

Trading is far better then gambling without any doubts.

But of course playing roulette can be fun at times...  :D
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 08:00:19 PM by ShadowBlue »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #48 on: March 10, 2017, 06:31:12 PM »
That you find it easy to profit from trading is not the Norm .ShadowBlue. Most Day Traders lose.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #49 on: March 10, 2017, 10:46:30 PM »
Can't argue with that Shadowblue. being profitable on trading is less hard than roulette, thats for sure.

In fact i guess any serious gambler could be succesfull in trading. why? because it simply is something you can build skill and expierence. and a gambler is familiar with pressure => bankroll management. Whit roulette your succes is too much build upon luck. an expierence gambler will last longer, but that aint a certainty of being profitable in the end.

why 85 to 90% of traders are losing money has it reasons. i wont bother mentioning, dont feel like repeating myself over and over again.

what is interesting is that being succesfull in trading you aren't bound with the idea that there is only one way to get there.

Seems like shadowman does his business in crude oil and forex. Looks like he's doing well. while i have a different approach. I never trade on those.

But that only confirms a earlier statement of mine. you only have to find what suits you and focus yourself on that particular segment of the market.
Nontheless support and resistance lines sure are an important factor.

To be honest if the serious roulette players  on this forum would put half the effort they do with the roulette game in trading. I'm pretty sure you'll all do well. Some better than other obviously , but chances of being a loser trader would be rather slim.

Concerning the book i intend to write. the ones being serious about trading and want to invest time and work, maybe i'll send a free copy (keep in mind that it will take a lot of work and time to finish it, so dont expect it to get one in the next coming months)

But those who show real interest can always send me PM.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 01:27:03 AM by Geoffrey »
 
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kav

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2017, 12:42:39 AM »
The one million question is: Could we apply any of the tools, insights and knowledge from trading, to roulette?
Are they completely unrelated in terms of approach and strategies?
 
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Jake007

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2017, 01:06:29 AM »
It would be interesting to chart spins and somehow view those spins with moving averages, etc
 
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Reyth

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2017, 01:08:39 AM »
The charting criteria is key.  Sputnik would have alot to offer there as he uses alot of amazing patterns that would show up in charts pretty well I think.  I can chart just about anything.
 

Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2017, 01:37:15 AM »
it sure is the one million question. who would be able to produce a copy paste strategy from long term profitbale approach in trading onto roulette holds the key to beat roulette on rather continous base.

Charting and using technical indicators could be a good starting point.
I wonder if it could be possible to do. corelations between both are more on the surface rather than deep correlations. thats what make it hard to figure out. If it where easy, i would have come up with a solution long time ago. But that doesn't mean it cant be done for sure.

although my focus is on trading, i find roulette to much fascinating to drop it.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 01:38:52 AM by Geoffrey »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2017, 11:59:19 AM »
I find it easier to win at roulette than at Trading. Probably because I don't Trade !
Seriously, though, I am suspicious of claims that if you only did This-or That then you will profit.
Talk of the market showing a profit over  a certain lifespan is pretty meaningless IMO because it is a case of " looking in the rear view mirror ". Like roulette it  is a form of gambling as many who thought otherwise  found out.
Still, Good Luck in your  punting Guys . 
 
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ShadowBlue

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2017, 03:16:09 PM »
That you find it easy to profit from trading is not the Norm .ShadowBlue. Most Day Traders lose.

Yes i know that most of the traders lose money. But i only looked at traders who are trading successfully.

I learned from what they did and applied it to the system i have learned. So i made some important changes.

And then the system became profitable for me.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 03:41:20 PM by ShadowBlue »
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2017, 03:18:26 PM »
for those looking into charting , i suggest to put the focus on bankroll management because its way more important that acutal hitratio succes. when being able to keep it under controle in very bad runs. thats where the solution is.

at sceps: you are entitled to have an opinion even if  you dont trade. I still respect that.good to hear you're doing well with roulette. Keep it up.
I think its natural for being sceptical i dont blame you, i would be too if someone comes out of the blue stating stock market in beatable and profitable on long term.
Same with all the so called roulette Hg's. i'll only believe it when i see it with my own eyes

You sure are right that being in profit in a certain  timeframe doesn't mean much. cant argue that.
question is what is considered a certain lifespan? 1 month, 6 months, a year, 5 years, 20 years??

there is much more to it that 'do this , then do that' approach, but i get it that you dont mean it in the way as simplistic is sounds.

If it where easy i wouldn't be working on this for years. but eventually i got it.

in 5 year, with 3 years of papertrading and testing i only got one month with a loss. so continued to test it out with real money after that. in the 24 months that follow i only endured two losses ( that small it didn't even hurt)

the ones who follow this topic already know i limit my trades a day (mostly 2 trades)

Lets pretend my trading capital equals a 100 unit roulette bankroll

1) when doing a trade it cost me 2% of my capital, so that equals 2 units of your roulette bankroll

2) i do approx 40 trades a month (could be equalised with 40 spins)

3) you have 3 scenarios: a good trade (hit), a bad trade(losing spin), a break even trade (1 unit on red or black and 1 on high or low, win and lose one: just an example)

4) the bad trade is set at 2% as mentioned already (cut your losses short) when things go against you, you dont lose much.

5) a break even trade is self explanatory. i gain as much as i put into.

6) in my book a succesfull trade start a 10% which can go up to 40% (let your winning trades run). as said before, doesn't matter how much you hit, what matters is when you hit, make it count)

now from my testing results over last 5 years these are the statiscal averages on the way i trade:

a) 70 % of my trades end up as break even, i put 2% on the table and gain 2% back= balance eachother out = total control. nothing has happened.
so 28 of the 40 trades has no effect whatsoever.

b) losing trades are approx about 20% of the trades (average is between 8 and 9)

c) winning trades are approx about 10% of the trades (average is between 3 and 4)

i only need 2  rather small winning trades to have a break even month or little profit, when losing trades are at the rather expected average.

i only produce loss when the average of losing trades is higher than normal, and the % winning trades are below average and rather small. Even so in this scenario with only one good trade of 25% i could end up positive.

as told above, this doesn't happen frequently (3 times out of 60) = 5% of the time. and even if it does , it doesn't effect my capital much, when i do have a losing month it wont be much of a loss anyway

so succesfull ratio aint that important at all. what matters is that the good trades outperform the bad ones. which has happened 95% of the time over a 5 year period.

when you know that 70% of the trades has none effect to your bankroll/capital + the fact that 95% of the time the winning trades/ spins outperform the bad ones, without need of having a high hit % thats what i call having control of your bankroll to an extreme extend.

Seems pretty solid to me.

If we could reproduce something like that on roulette , you'll have a lifetime winner.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 03:30:58 PM by Geoffrey »
 
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ShadowBlue

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2017, 03:39:54 PM »
The one million question is: Could we apply any of the tools, insights and knowledge from trading, to roulette?
Are they completely unrelated in terms of approach and strategies?

No i don't think so. Why because the big difference between gambling and trading is:
The dice doesn't have a memory, the cards don't have a memory and the wheel doesn't have a memory.

But the markets do have a memory. And all traders who trade in the markets create reliable patterns.
Which repeat themselves over and over again.

But i do agree that roulette also create patterns but the only thing is you never know how long they will last.
If i play a roulette strategie i always search for a table which shows regular hits. And then i will play hit and run.

And go for 3 a 4 hits and stop.
 
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juice

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2017, 03:47:56 PM »
Shadow, I would encourage you to read the article that Kav, has on the site, about the wheel having no memory. Dr. Ellison would argue differently and makes more than an intelligent point about his opinion on this topic. I for one support Dr. Ellisons observation.     Best Regard, juice
 
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Reyth

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Re: Trading on the financial Market?
« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2017, 04:03:01 PM »
I kinda agree with SB in as far as wheel sequences are not the same or even similar to market trading sequences.  Tickseeker proved that with his "blip charting". 

I still believe of course that random sequences have observable patterns and that someone like Sputnik who works heavily in sequence patterns can provide the criteria for successful charting.