Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 34435 times)

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ShadowBlue

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #480 on: April 27, 2017, 11:16:32 AM »
Hi Terminator,

Looking back to Jekhb76's alternate dozens i see that i misunderstood rule nr 1.
I have been playing it  this morning. I had good results and i haven't tried HarryJ's method yet.
I will check it out. We have a lot of triggers now..... Thanks for your 2x divisor.

i will papertrade your progression. Normally i don't go higher then 1-1-2 and 2-2-4.
And playing it with NLE. NLE ( Nice Little Earner ) 3 even/changes to become 4.
I use a leveller progression +1 on a loss -1 on a win.

Stop loss = 4 losses in a row. And some times i play reversed NLE 3 even/changes not to become 4.

But maybe i need to play more aggressive.....  ;)
« Last Edit: April 27, 2017, 11:55:36 AM by ShadowBlue »
 
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Can anyone else Program in Excel?
« Reply #481 on: May 06, 2017, 02:30:44 PM »
The work that Alex did with Excel is incredible, and I appreciate all the work he did with his program. However, he has not logged on in two weeks, and there are some things that need correcting. I was able to correct some things with my basic knowledge, but not the more advanced.

The major problem is this:

In Palestis's (and Holloway's) progression, after a win, it resets to the FIRST betting level. This is why there are a lot of losses whenever we press the "F9" key.

For example, let's say we reach level 3 and WIN on the 2nd bet of the 3rd level. That is an 8 unit loss. The current excel program does NOT resolve that loss. Instead, it begins the next bet with that loss at the 1st bet of the 1st betting level. Therefore, no matter how good we do in the game from that point forward, that game is guaranteed to be a loser, if there will be no losses that will be resolved.

The correct way is to continue with the progression from a set point, until it is resolved, and THEN reset the progression. Such as with Palestis's original method of starting from the same progression level we were on when we won, or starting from a lower progression level with my 2X divisor.

Can someone fix this Excel sheet so that when there's a win, palestis's progression will go back a "CERTAIN" amount of bets to recoup previous losses, instead of always starting again at level 1 on every win? (maybe with my 2X Divisor)?

I have attached Alex's most recent program (with my corrections) for your examination.

I think this change would make a huge difference in the results. Thanks everyone!
« Last Edit: May 06, 2017, 04:13:57 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #482 on: May 07, 2017, 03:00:57 AM »
I don't believe anyone has shown that this system is losing yet.
 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #483 on: May 07, 2017, 03:27:20 AM »
There gonna be no difference in results.  It's a dead end.  It's not a bet a selection, just rulls that someone invented to loose in " organised way".
    I would be happy to help you, but unfortunately,  its just a waste of your precious time and potentially waste of mine also.
Y don't you show us your winning system mr. Perfect step  by step. Then we will start taking you more seriously. Vaguely insinuating that physics is the only way to beat roulette, has no credibility unless is followed by facts that can be tested and confirmed by others.
Should all cancer researchers abandon their search for the cure, simply because someone claims he  has the secret formula that cures cancer? Thus rendering all research a waste of time?
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #484 on: May 07, 2017, 06:06:18 AM »
I have already proved to myself that there is a huge difference in results. Out of over 12,000 spins tested so far, I have lost 1 game out of every 20 played (a loss is when I reach a 100 unit loss). I won close to 1,000 units in that time. This comes to an average of 4 units per hour won played at roulette (50 spins per hour).

I replayed those same 12,000 games over with many different betting progressions, including the betting patterns in Alex's Excel sheet, and I LOST hundreds of units instead of winning almost a thousand.

This proves, beyond any doubt whatsoever, that the progression alone can make the difference between a losing session and a winning session.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #485 on: May 07, 2017, 02:52:20 PM »
 Terminator, progression is a good thing. It can make money in favorable situations. The catch is that situation itself should be somehow favorable for upplying correct progression.
   Progression itself is just a tool, you need right tool for a job, that's all about it.
    If you are right in your situation assessment,  progression will progress winnings, if not... 
    Real qwestion for progression is what kind of sequences it require to attack. Progressive betting it's like a net for fishing... right net for a right fish.
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #486 on: May 07, 2017, 08:32:23 PM »
Terminator, progression is a good thing. It can make money in favorable situations. The catch is that situation itself should be somehow favorable for upplying correct progression.
   

Yes, I agree, and that is what I am doing. I am NOT applying the progression arbitrarily to Palestis's Single Dozen method. I only play the Level 1 progression using his method. When I increase to level 2, I only play XYY triggers. Then, when I increase to level 3 progression, I only play XYY+3 triggers.

This has worked very well for me so far.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 08:48:41 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #487 on: May 07, 2017, 11:36:37 PM »
I think that's genius Term!  I actually proposed something like this in another thread (I could link it if you want) but I never actually attempted to implement it.  I am glad you are proving it works! :D
 
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bigfish10

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #488 on: May 09, 2017, 11:02:53 PM »
Hello to All, First of all, I am amaze with the passion you guys have with the game. I am new and after reading the whole thread. I am going to ask a dumb question to get more clarification.

Based on the tracker built by Alex, the WIN ratio is averaging at 30%. Is there are hidden secret being the betting progression?

This is because no matter how many times I randomize the spins, it will still LOSE.

Thanks,

BF10
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #489 on: May 10, 2017, 12:23:15 AM »
Progressions are built around average appearance expectations of the chosen target.
It is the careful selection of the trigger in a system, that ascertains  that this average expectation doesn't deviate too far from its average. Because if it does, no progression can save you from a disaster.
Therefore system trigger and progression are very much interrelated.
Progression alone cannot make a system win.
When the furthest deviation observed in tests, is within the available B/R limits, then the right progression will eventually prevail.
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #490 on: May 10, 2017, 10:57:49 PM »
This is because no matter how many times I randomize the spins, it will still LOSE.

Hi Bigfish,

The main reason why Alex's Excel program loses is because the progression code is in error. The way we play them, the progressions must be resolved FIRST before proceeding back to level 1 again.

Unfortunately, Alex designed them so that after the first HIT, it goes back to level 1, even if it means starting at a loss.

For example, let's say the progression gets to level 4 and we have a hit, but are at a 12 unit loss. We must CONTINUE with the progression until the 12 units are resolved. THEN start at level 1 again. But Alex's Excel program does NOT resolve this loss, but starts again at level 1.

Therefore, these games will mostly lose because each time it does this, the losses accumulate. If we start each level at a LOSS, it will get progressively worse. Now, this would be FINE if we were playing a Martingale, but the progressions for the Single Dozen usually requires several hits before we are in profit, not just 1 hit.

Alex has not logged on in a few weeks, so he has not been able to correct this error. I don't know of anyone else who knows EXCEL good enough to correct his work either.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2017, 03:02:44 AM by TERMINATOR »
 
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mfj

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #491 on: May 12, 2017, 07:25:16 AM »
Terminator, progression is a good thing. It can make money in favorable situations. The catch is that situation itself should be somehow favorable for upplying correct progression.
   

Yes, I agree, and that is what I am doing. I am NOT applying the progression arbitrarily to Palestis's Single Dozen method. I only play the Level 1 progression using his method. When I increase to level 2, I only play XYY triggers. Then, when I increase to level 3 progression, I only play XYY+3 triggers.

This has worked very well for me so far.

Hello everyone. Based on what I've read this system seems promising. It makes sense to me to test only the special trigger. That is, XYY (with no previous occurrence of X in last 3 spins). I don't know anything about programming. I think it would be interesting to test wins/losses over 1 million spins. Is anyone up to the task of writing a program to test just this trigger? Thanks in advance.
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #492 on: May 12, 2017, 09:45:03 AM »
I am certainly willing to code this.  I can produce output files to prove that my code is accurate and to document the most serious loss sequences that we can expect to ever face.

Please correct my "off the cuff" summary of this system, using Term's adaptive rules:

1) During the FIRST progression level, I played Palestis's method, with his triggers and red flags.

The trigger is in the form of XXY. (XX are 2 numbers in the same dozen and Y is another dozen).
 Needless to say that XYX and YXX is the same thing as far as the trigger is concerned.
When we see this trigger in the last 3 numbers spun we simply bet the single dozen (Y), for 3 bets

Situations where you avoid betting, and wait for things to become more normal
1. If the same dozen appears repeatedly immediately preceding the trigger. (it's a sign of anomaly that can affect the rest of the dozens).
2. If the playable target dozen ( Y), has appeared more than 3+ times immediately prior to the trigger. (meaning it has appeared enough times already and runs the risk to disappear when you begin betting it  3 times after the trigger).
3. If the first 2 bets after the trigger result in XX (same dozen as the majority dozen in the trigger, you stop and only lose 2 bets). Easily recoverable in the next trigger
4. if there is more than one 0 in the numbers preceding the trigger. (0's tend to come in packs).

 
2) Once I went to level 2, I ONLY played the XYY trigger, STILL following the red flags, BUT using the previous 3 spins if possible (like HarryJ gets his triggers from), since the occurrence of XYY alone has a longer wait time (3x longer than Palestis's 3 original triggers).

3) And once I reached the THIRD level, I would only play the XYY+3 triggers (also using the previous 3 spins if possible) and ignore all the red flags. It is still profitable when ignoring red flags, and since the wait time is HUGE between XYY+3 triggers (4x longer than XYY trigger alone, 12x longer than Palestis's 3 original triggers), we have to compensate.

4) Oh, and I also used my 2x divisor to determine which level to play. This makes a huge difference! Not only for managing bankroll, but cuts down on the wait time between triggers also:

Actually, just the opposite. I'm betting lower, which means I lower the progression level I'm on, thus lowering my risk if a bad streak hit. This also means possibly changing the trigger...so if I'm on level 4 (an XYY+3 trigger) and use my 2x Divisor to lower it to a level 2 (XYY trigger), then that means I wait less between spins because I am not playing an XYY+3 trigger.

Here is a more detailed description of my 2x Divisor:

Sure:

1-2-2-
2-2-4
4-4-8
8-8-16
16-16-32
32-32-64

Now, Palestis originally played this by the following: if you are not at least tied with your previous high when you win, you RESTART the level you are on.

So, for example, if you are on the 4th betting level (8-8-16), and you WIN, but you have not at least broken even with your previous high (i.e., 4 units away from break even), you restart the betting with an 8 unit bet from the same level 4 (8-8-16).

This is risky to me, because we are risking way more than we should (risking 8 units to win 4, and winning 16 units when we only need 4), because if a bad streak starts here it will raise our bets very quickly and puts us closer to bust on a smaller bankroll
(or table limit).

My modification is the following:
However many units we are away from a tie with our previous high, we DIVIDE by 2 and start at the level that begins with THAT amount.


Example #1:
Let's say we won on the 4th betting level. We are 4 units away from break even. We DIVIDE 4 by 2, and get 2. So, we drop to the level that begins with a 2 unit bet (2-2-4). So, we would begin the next betting at level 2 instead of level 4.

Example #2:
We are at level 7 and win. If we are 12 units below our last high (meaning we are 12 units away from a tie with our previous high point in the game), we divide 12 by 2 and get 6. There is no level that begins with 6, so we go UP (he means DOWN boys and girls watching at home) the progression and play the next closest one, which would be 8 (not 4). So, we begin the next bet with an 8-8-16 progression (Level 4).

Example #3:
Let's say we win at level 3 (4-4-8), and after we divide by 2, we get 8! We do NOT start at a higher betting level than the level we are currently on. So, in this case, we would still begin with a 4 unit bet (not 8 units), which would mean we start betting at Level 3.

This helps prevent the progression from getting out of control in the case of a bad streak.


Ok, so assuming that the above is all correct and complete, I have everything I need to create the code.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 10:07:02 AM by Reyth »
 
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mfj

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #493 on: May 12, 2017, 02:08:35 PM »
Reyth--first of all, thank you for the response and your willingness to work on this project.  I'm definitely interested in the system you summarized, but I had a much more simple test in mind. It would be useful to see the results based on multi-level system described above, but I simply wanted to find out the results for wins losses when betting on the most conservative trigger of all. That is, what about looking at just level 4. What is the win/loss rate when dealing with only the level 4 trigger and betting the next two (or perhaps three) spins. Even though this trigger may require our patience for its appearance, I want to discover if the win rate is considerably greater than the loss rate. If so, it may be worth simplifying the system and betting only when this more rare trigger shows up. 
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #494 on: May 12, 2017, 02:43:25 PM »
Ok, well it will simply make my job simpler to start out that way. :)