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Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 34436 times)

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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #360 on: April 11, 2017, 03:11:26 AM »
Harry J uses double streets which are quite flexible on the felt.
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #361 on: April 11, 2017, 10:09:15 AM »
@ Bayes

Very impressive progression. I cannot understand how you determine how much to bet, and when to bet 0, but I know you're still working on it. When you finalize your progression, I'd love to test it myself.

Hopefully this progression will also do well in "average" games. Most progressions I've tried that do well in losing sessions, don't do too well in average or good sessions (profit is too low). Hopefully it's not the case here.

The algorithm is fairly simple, and there are 2 main parameters: the divisor and the target, both of which can be varied, although you really need to keep the target fixed until you've achieved it over a number of spins (which may vary). The divisor can be varied at any time, depending on current conditions. I'll post a detailed example of how it works later, but here's an example of an "average" game, with the target set to 1u every 7 spins and a divisor of 2.8.

   1  L      1   -1
    2  L      1   -2
    3  L      1   -3
    4  W      1   -1
    5  L      1   -2
    6  L      1   -3
    7  L      0   -3
    8  W      0   -3
    9  W      1   -1
   10  L      1   -2
   11  W      1    0
   12  L      1   -1
   13  L      1   -2
   14  L      1   -3
   15  L      2   -5
   16  W      0   -5
   17  L      3   -8
   18  L      0   -8
   19  W      0   -8
   20  L      4  -12
   21  W      5   -2
   22  L      2   -4
   23  L      3   -7
   24  W      4    1
   25  L      1    0
   26  L      1   -1
   27  W      1    1
   28  W      1    3
   29  L      1    2
   30  L      1    1
   31  L      1    0
   32  L      1   -1
   33  L      2   -3
   34  W      0   -3
   35  L      0   -3
   36  W      0   -3
   37  L      3   -6
   38  W      4    2
   39  L      1    1
   40  L      1    0
   41  W      2    4
   42  W      1    6

So the target was achieved after 42 bets (6 * 7 = 42). The price you pay for keeping the target modest is that on really good sequences you still only make 1 u every 7 spins, which isn't very efficient, but I have some ideas about how it can be improved when the expectations are running high.

The divisor is the main factor which determines how quickly stakes increase on losing runs. If it's the same as the odds, then this amounts to a martingale type progression (1 win clears all debt and gives a profit). i.e. if the divisor was set to 2, because the odds are 2-1, a win will clear all losses and give you profit of whatever the current target is. This allows for a lot of flexibility because you can adjust the divisor to whatever odds you like. Find the odds of an event and set the divisor to it. For example, you could target 2 dozen wins in a row, the odds of which are approx 8-1, so setting the divisor to 8 will get you to your target when this event occurs.

 
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #362 on: April 11, 2017, 11:18:46 AM »
Harry J uses double streets which are quite flexible on the felt.
Single ones are even more interesting. .. many of them have numbers that are near one with another or opposite. Often player may miss a revolution or ball miss diamond...  it goes opposite quite often.
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #363 on: April 11, 2017, 03:17:59 PM »
This allows for a lot of flexibility because you can adjust the divisor to whatever odds you like. Find the odds of an event and set the divisor to it. For example, you could target 2 dozen wins in a row, the odds of which are approx 8-1, so setting the divisor to 8 will get you to your target when this event occurs.

Oh, I see now. Thanks for explaining it more clearly!
 
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Harryj

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #364 on: April 11, 2017, 03:40:25 PM »
  @Mr Perfect,
             I did try ones and twos and threes etc. I found that alternating sectors around the wheel didn't work. One needs to fight random with random !  In the end I found that one sector of 3 or 4 pockets and the rest in twos worked best. As long as they were fairly evenly BUT RANDOMLY SPREAD. I found that betting 12 single numbers on the layout was a bit of a bore. I could achieve almost exactly what I was looking for using DS on the European wheel.
          Be warned it is more complex on the American wheel, because DS are not randomly spread. If I were playing the American wheel I would redo the research to account for this fact. 
          Harry

 
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 09:32:12 PM by Harryj »
 
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Probability Question
« Reply #365 on: April 12, 2017, 05:36:07 PM »
Can someone help me with this math problem? I need an answer for "Z1" and "Z2" to my question at the end.

Now, I know the answer to this:

For every ONE (Z1) time I win a bet for a Dozen, I will lose TWO (Z2) times, to the other Dozens.

However, I'm doing testing on the YZZ scenario (how many times it wins vs loses). This is what I am doing. After a YZZ, if it WINS on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd bet, I count that as a WIN. If it does not win by the 3rd bet, it is a loss.

I am not keeping track as to WHICH bet wins (1st, 2nd or 3rd), just whether or not it wins, period.

Now, my question is the following:

For every "Z1" times I WIN a bet for Y, I will lose "Z2" times to the other Dozens.

1 win to every 2 losses does NOT work for the above question, since there are as many as THREE bets to take into consideration (3 chances) and not just ONE.

Thanks for your help!
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 05:48:08 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Bayes

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Re: Probability Question
« Reply #366 on: April 12, 2017, 05:43:37 PM »
Now, my question is the following:
For every "Z1" times I WIN abet for Y, I will lose "Z2" times to the other Dozens.

TERM, can you clarify? This isn't a question but a statement.  :D

 

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #367 on: April 12, 2017, 05:46:44 PM »
I am looking for a number to enter in place of "Z1" and Z2." Sort of like Algebra.

"For every (blank) times I WIN a bet for Y, I will lose (blank) times to the other Dozens."

Does this make more sense? Maybe I'm not phrasing my question correctly.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 05:49:38 PM by TERMINATOR »
 

Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #368 on: April 12, 2017, 05:56:15 PM »
Ok I think I know what you mean. You want to know how many times you mark a win (w) considering that it's a win when you get at least one hit in the 3 spins versus how many times none of the 3 spins gives you win, right?

If that's correct the probability is 70% you will get at least one win, so for every 7 times you win, you will lose 3 times. i.e the odds are 7-3 for a win, 3-7 against.
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #369 on: April 12, 2017, 06:38:00 PM »
Thank you, Bayes. That's what I needed!

I went thru the last 20 games tested, and looked for all the YZZ patterns. So far the average number of wins is 7.5, and the average number of losses is 3.2. So, this YZZ pattern does a LITTLE bit better than the average expectancy so far.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 07:22:43 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Excel - Single Dozen Tracker for all your games
« Reply #370 on: April 12, 2017, 07:00:27 PM »
For those interested, I created an Excel sheet to keep track of all your games tested or played on ONE sheet. It can be used for testing purposes, or to keep track of your actual play with real money.

It automatically keeps track of the following TOTALS, AVERAGES, and HIGHEST AMOUNTS REACHED in the following categories:

- Total Units won or lost
- Number of individual bets won
- Number of individual bets lost
- Highest Progression Level Reached
- Most Losses in a Row
- Highest Bet Made
- Largest Debt
- How many times an XYY pattern won
- How many times an XYY pattern lost

An example of the last 20 games I played are on here. Simply delete the numbers on the left side of the sheet. I created another sheet with my results deleted, so all you need to do is enter your own results. When you enter your own numbers on the left side with your own results, the right side statistics are automatically displayed.

Also, I am putting the most recent update to the Single Dozen individual games also. Enjoy!
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 07:24:45 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #371 on: April 12, 2017, 09:18:40 PM »
Thank you, Bayes. That's what I needed!

I went thru the last 20 games tested, and looked for all the YZZ patterns. So far the average number of wins is 7.5, and the average number of losses is 3.2. So, this YZZ pattern does a LITTLE bit better than the average expectancy so far.
If you are going thru all this trouble, y can't you keep track of the most frequent winning  range?
If it is in the first 2 pins (either spin-1 or spin-2) where most of the winnings happen, then obviously that's a great advantage.
 
« Last Edit: April 12, 2017, 09:23:00 PM by palestis »
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #372 on: April 13, 2017, 12:10:16 AM »
I tried doing that in the beginning, but it was too time consuming. It has to be done manually for each game played. And instead of 1 simple category (of either a win or loss for XYY), I needed at least 4 additional categories (000 XYY,  X00 XYY, 0X0 XYY, and 00X XYY) with a win and loss in each one.

If this could be automated somehow, I'd gladly add this to my stats.

I DID do the first 2 games. And when there was NO X in the previous 3 spins before XYY, it had 6 wins. When there was an X00 XYY, there were 3 wins, and both 0X0 and 00X had 4 wins each.

But it was way too time consuming, and when I double checked my work, there were mistakes and such. So, I am just focusing on just XYY for now.

Palestis, if you want, I will do ONE category. So, instead of XYY by itself, I will just look at those XYY's where NO X's appeared in the previous 3 spins at all, since this is most likely the most profitable. Would you prefer I do that instead of XYY by itself?
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #373 on: April 13, 2017, 05:46:09 AM »
Okay, I went through my last 20 games, again, and THIS time I looked for all triggers of XYY, in which the previous 3 spins did NOT include an X. Here are the results:

Wins =  53
Loses = 15


So, if it's 7 wins to every 3 losses, it seems like a very good outcome! If we divide both numbers by 5, then the losses become a total of 3. And the wins are 11 (actually 10.6, but I rounded it off). Considering that 7 are the expected wins, winning 11 is pretty damn good!

So, this small sample of 20 games (200 spins each, total of 4000 roulette spins), seems to confirm that an XYY trigger IS a favorite to hit when the previous 3 spins were NOT an X.

:D That's 57% ABOVE expectation!  :D

 
« Last Edit: April 13, 2017, 06:01:20 AM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #374 on: April 13, 2017, 08:36:02 AM »
Okay, I went through my last 20 games, again, and THIS time I looked for all triggers of XYY, in which the previous 3 spins did NOT include an X.

TERM, do you mean just bet the missing dozen in the last 3 spins?

I would be cautious about coming to conclusions based on limited data. Mathematically all 27 three spin patterns have the same chance, although one or two may dominate in a given short term (which actually might be quite a lot of spins). You could try tracking all of them and betting on the one in the lead, or combining the top performers and selecting the dozen which is common to them, but that would be taking us far from palestis' original selection method.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2017, 08:48:30 AM by Bayes »