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Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 34436 times)

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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #300 on: April 03, 2017, 03:33:14 PM »
When all hell break loose there's nothing to do, and no progression can save you. (yes, it do happen!) no matter how clever betselection or clever progression you have. (I should know!).. :s

So, the real question IS what's a good stoploss?

OK OK!

I crown you King Ignatus!


« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 03:36:53 PM by Reyth »
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #301 on: April 03, 2017, 03:34:25 PM »
Thanks, but I thought TERM tested that mod and it didn't do so well (see reply # 100).
 

Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #302 on: April 03, 2017, 03:40:15 PM »
Yes I saw that and his results are 100% valid.  I still believe it should perform better but that's not the point because we are talking about the fact that Harry/Pales require a second unique Dozen to appear in a series of 3 before betting and how that may favorably change the statistics?
 
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TERMINATOR

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #303 on: April 03, 2017, 06:11:18 PM »
@ Bayes
Quote
I don't like fixed progressions, preferring to adjust stakes according to (mainly) where I am in relation to my current target, how the session is going, etc. So with that in mind I've changed the progression in the tracker to a simple list of numbers increasing by 1, D'Alembert style.

I like this idea. I have a lot of experience with the D'Alembert in EC play. If I may make a suggestion, since this was designed for EC play, if one uses this on Dozens, perhaps it should go more like: 112233445566, etc. And on a win you would still go back 2 levels.

The good thing about D'Alembert is that if a situation goes WLWLWLWL (or, in the case of dozens, WLLWLLWLLWLL), then we will incease our profits each time it goes back and forth. The negative side is that a bad streak will still kill our bankroll.

I look forward to trying that out!

Quote
I tend to agree that there probably isn't anything in the specific bet selection which gives an advantage...There may be something in the stop-continue method though.

I'm leaning this way, also.



@ Reyth

Quote
The truth is that it is virtually impossible to create a system that can be followed 100% to the letter on every spin, while allowing it to be simple enough to follow.  This is because there are so many different exceptions and choices available to a high quality system that it must become something personal to the person placing the bets; a human choice based on instinct/emotion/previous experience; sometimes we just "know the best choice" and make it; intuition?

This is why computer simulations lack "the human element" and should be used as tools with that limitation in mind.  A computer simulation will show us where "the human element" needs to be applied, it does not replace "the human element"!

Yes, I agree with your statements, Reyth. And I appreciate that Palestis is trying to show us this, too. But, if it's intuition that is making this system successful, and intuition that will cause us to never see many losses in a row, then this is completely separate from anyone's "System" or "Method" causing this. Because intuition cannot be taught by others, it can only be learned by experience.

Also, if, after a certain amount of losses, we should "stop betting this game" and move to another table and restart, then, once again, THIS would be due to Money Management, and not due to anyone's Roulette System. Because Money Management can be applied to ANY System.

And, just so you know, I've never used a computer simulation for the Single Dozen, it was all done by hand. But I am having a very hard time understanding the exact SPOT of where to "Stop" during the progression. That is why I am hoping someone can look at Post #291 and show me what they would do in that situation.

It's hard for me to tell if a bad streak will continue, or cease. It's easy to say what one would do in hindsight, but it's much harder while it's happening live.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 06:19:49 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #304 on: April 03, 2017, 06:17:19 PM »
I think its kewl you have played D'Alembert alot!  Have you seen the IDG's D'Alembert system for EC's?  I can link to it if you like.

I think the truth is that there is some "art" to the trigger selection that Pales applies while he is playing; whenever he plays. 

I think you and he have correctly identified the parameters for trigger selection where a "conservative" OR an "aggressive" approach can be used. 

Its up to our personal choice (however we choose to make it) to decide which method to use at a particular time.

This "art" aspect appears in every high quality system and is inescapable.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 06:20:23 PM by Reyth »
 

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #305 on: April 03, 2017, 06:28:43 PM »
@ Reyth

I have not heard of the IDG variation, please link. Thanks. Does it help improve the original D'Alembert?

« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 06:30:27 PM by TERMINATOR »
 

Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #306 on: April 03, 2017, 07:21:16 PM »
Yes it definitely helps.  Although it is not like his recommended method because of the worst possible payout but his unique twist is designed to improve it as much as possible but ultimately he would tell you that it is better to move inwards on the felt.  King Jesper agrees! :D

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=715.msg10320#msg10320
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 07:30:44 PM by Reyth »
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #307 on: April 03, 2017, 08:58:05 PM »
@ TERMINATOR:
 I took the sheet with Game # 3, specifically from spin 90 -180 (where you had the trouble).
That is how I would play that session. It could be that I would make some number jumps, but I would probably end up with no different results if better.
When I say as part of the rule is to avoid the first trigger after a streak and pick the next one, it means the trigger that is almost glued to the streak. If it came after 5 or more numbers obviously the red flag has in a way expired.   If it follows immediately the streak or  very close to the streak
then you pick the next available  trigger.
Starting from the 90th spin, it is obvious that there is something wrong with the flow. A H streak is followed by an L streak then back to H streak ( 31-31-14-32),   even though it is separated by 14, but  still raises suspicion because it follows closely the previous H streak.
I am sorry but when you see things like that, you either wait and see what happens further down, or move on. Most experienced players would do just that. Instead of getting  entangled in a situation that obviously is not normal for this system . But I will let that go.
Anyway look at my sheet and make notes on the places that you have questions and we will take it from there. I will explain my way of thinking.
Just remember this:
 Whenever I see something strange like a streak, I either change tables or wait till things look more normal. I don't have to be on guard and jump on the first opportunity after the streak. Let some numbers go.
Also when I say skip the first trigger after a streak, It is understood that this will be a trigger that shows relatively fast. If it takes more than 5 numbers to see the first trigger obviously it doesn't count, because enough numbers have passed to neutralize the read flags.
I also include a sheet form live numbers from Wiesbaden Casino, for you to process them  to see how they compare with your other games.
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #308 on: April 03, 2017, 09:18:03 PM »
http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1376.msg20905#msg20905

So an example:

31 2 4 <=== this is ZXX

The missing Dozen is Y and so bet.
The question is you bet the missing dozen,, but for how long? What if the dozen goes missing for 8-10 -15 spins? I wouldn't take the extreme of 28 spins.
Obviously you must a have a limited number of spins in mind when chasing that missing dozen. It can't go on for too long for obvious reasons.
With the YXX trigger you bet Y but only for 3 spins (one cycle).
Then you wait for another YXX where the Y is not necessarily the same dozen as before. and that's for 3 spins again . Then wait for another YXX. what you do is zig zag a different dozen each time.
If your suggestion is to bet the missing dozen for say 3 spins, and then you bet a different missing dozen for 3 spins and then another missing dozen, then I would say the  system has potential.
It is when you chase one thing for a long period of spins that  runs you into  trouble.
Chasing the same missing group indefinitely is the major cause of great losses in roulette.

 

Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #309 on: April 03, 2017, 09:38:31 PM »
The question is you bet the missing dozen,, but for how long? What if the dozen goes missing for 8-10 -15 spins? I wouldn't take the extreme of 28 spins.
Obviously you must a have a limited number of spins in mind when chasing that missing dozen. It can't go on for too long for obvious reasons.

If I was actively running this system using my triggers, my "book" would say that the farther back that missing Dozen is, the better my odds to hit.  I use your progression and so I end up cycling through betting opportunities just like you do.

What I think is brilliant is your twist where you force me to wait for "a second enemy" to appear before I can consider betting!

Quote
If your suggestion is to bet the missing dozen for say 3 spins, and then you bet a different missing dozen for 3 spins and then another missing dozen, then I would say the  system has potential.

Yessir!  I am on board with your philosophy of "make 'em beat me on every separate occasion or just pay me!"

« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 09:44:03 PM by Reyth »
 
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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #310 on: April 03, 2017, 11:33:15 PM »
Palestis,

I don't understand why you skip some spins.
According to your description I would have played some different triggers (in red layer) than you.
Can you please explain why you didn't play those triggers?

PS: in the first trigger I made a mistake I mean the "11 1 30" trigger for the 3rd dozen.
I find it very strange that although the rules seem relatively simple, different people interpret them differently.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2017, 11:36:24 PM by kav »
 
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jekhb76

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #311 on: April 04, 2017, 06:00:20 AM »
What if we use the Whitticker Progression.

If the Whittaker progression is applied to twelve number bets, the following starting sequence is used: [/size]1. bet 1 unit
2. bet 1 unit
3. bet 2 units If the first bet wins, profit: 2 units.If the second bet wins, profit: 1 unit.If the third bet wins, profit: 2 units.In each of these cases the progression begins new with the sequence: 1 - 1 - 2! If the first 3 bets are lost, the next bet is determined as follows:with a negative balance between 4 to 9 units the balance is divided by 2,with a negative balance between 10 to 21 units the balance is divided by 3,with a negative balance between 22 to 100 units the balance is divided by 4,With a negative balance over 100 units the balance is divided by 5.If the result of the division is not a whole number, then this number is always rounded up.
The progression starts always with a bet size of 1 unit!·  Bet No. 1: 1 unit, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss:·  Bet No. 2: 1 unit, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss:·  Bet No. 3: 2 units, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss: 4 : 2 = 2·  Bet No. 4: 2 units, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss 6 : 2 = 3·  Bet No. 5: 3 units, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss 9 : 2 = 4.5 =5·  Bet No. 6: 5 units, in case of a win next bet 1 unit, in case of a loss 14 : 3 = 4.66 = 5·  Bet No. 7: 5 units, in case of a win next bet 4 : 2 = 2 units, in case of a loss 19 : 3 = 6.33 = 7
·  Bet No. 8: and so fourth...
 
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jekhb76

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #312 on: April 04, 2017, 06:02:18 AM »
The Whitticker 20 step ladder progression.

Bet  1  1
Bet  2  1
Bet  3  2
Bet  4  2
Bet  5  3
Bet  6  5
Bet  7  5
Bet  8  7
Bet  9  7
Bet 10 9
Bet 11 11
Bet 12 14
Bet 13 17
Bet 14 21
Bet 15 21
Bet 16 25
Bet 17 30
Bet 18 36
Bet 19 43
Bet 20 50  (310 units total)

« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 06:09:03 AM by jekhb76 »
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #313 on: April 04, 2017, 07:53:06 AM »
Yes, I agree with your statements, Reyth. And I appreciate that Palestis is trying to show us this, too. But, if it's intuition that is making this system successful, and intuition that will cause us to never see many losses in a row, then this is completely separate from anyone's "System" or "Method" causing this. Because intuition cannot be taught by others, it can only be learned by experience.

Agreed. I'm not saying that intuition is necessarily bunk, only that I don't think the "human element" is necessary. This is because if you can articulate your "intuition" (even to yourself) then it's possible to program a computer, or compile a list of rules which will do the same thing. There may be a lot of rules, but there should be no ambiguity. The rules don't have to be "sharp", they could have "fuzzy" boundaries, but unless  you're talking about precognition (and I don't want to go down that road), where winning numbers just come into your head, it should always be possible to articulate why you make a decision.

 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #314 on: April 04, 2017, 09:18:14 AM »
Palestis,

I don't understand why you skip some spins.
According to your description I would have played some different triggers (in red layer) than you.
Can you please explain why you didn't play those triggers?

Yes the first red layer wasn't a trigger. (3-11-1). I skipped  the next available trigger (30-31-14) because it  immediately followed the 1st dozen streak. And it's part of the red flag rules. (which would've won anyway in the second spin with 13 had I followed the 30-31-14).
But even if I picked 11-1-30 by mistake, it still won with 30.
The second red layer you marked was the 17-18-11. That would've won in the second spin with 7.
Yes maybe I skipped by mistake. But in real life betting in live roulettes, that could probably be the first trigger you saw on a score board. If the last 4 numbers were 17-18-11-23 on the board the obvious trigger is 18-11-23 winning with the first bet with 7.
A mistake, or changing tables suddenly, does not penalize the system.
But if you took 17-18-11 as the trigger, 23 was the first VIRTUAL LOSS. ( an added bonus). Then again 7 would've won.
The 3rd red overlay you marked was 15-14-5 which is a trigger. But since it was glued directly under the 33-35-25 streak as a rule we skip it. (skipping the first trigger following directly under a streak).
Had I chosen it by mistake in real live play it would've lost with 14-32-23 coming. But I would've won the next trigger 1-4-22 in the second spin with 24 coming.
The main point is, whether you follow every trigger blindly without any skipping , or mistakenly or purposely skip some triggers here and there,  back to back trigger losses are not happening, no matter how you do it.  This is the strength of this system.
The rest is finding the right progression, to avoid the damage of the rare 3 back to back trigger losses. I t won't happen often, but if it happens it's best to be prepared.
Unless of course you have a huge B/R compared to the starting chip.

Palestis,

I find it very strange that although the rules seem relatively simple, different people interpret them differently.
There is an explanation for it.
When you test a system, from a list of numbers on a sheet of paper, it is not easy to follow all the rules, especially if you have to determine all the time how are numbers  clustered together. That would be a tedious task and very boring indeed. 
In a live roulette everything is in front of you. Including previous numbers. It's much easier to make a decision because at a glance you can see what is happening. And you only have to do that when you are ready to bet. In testing from a sheet of numbers,  you have to do that constantly.
That is y I tested the system without paying any attention to any rules.
Otherwise I would not have performed as many tests as I did. 
« Last Edit: April 04, 2017, 09:34:40 AM by palestis »
 
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