Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 34436 times)

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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #75 on: March 14, 2017, 03:28:31 AM »
Thanks for your reply, but the question is simple and it is specific to this system:
If while waiting for your loss you lose 6 winning opportunities, is it still a good idea?
How do you know that you wont lose 6 winning opportunities while waiting for a loss?
 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #76 on: March 14, 2017, 04:16:00 AM »
That's the thing.
You don't know in advance if you missed several winning opportunities, while waiting for the virtual loss.
But what you also don't know, is if by betting perpetually to seize those winning opportunities,
you might lose a long series of bets, with increased progression, where recovery from it will be almost impossible or at least a huge task in itself.  The psychological let down supersedes the financial loss.
To make my point more understood, when I test a system, I compare results of betting all the progression steps, to the results of betting selective shorter spans of the progression.
And the results vary widely in favor of certainty. 
You can't compromise CERTAINTY for the sake of missed opportunity.
One might say that you bet lesser times compared to perpetual betting. And that eventually equal number of selective bets will have the same results with equal numbers of perpetual bets.
That is definitely not true.
Those selective bets are backed by a higher degree of certainty.
How can they have the same results with endless betting?

 
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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #77 on: March 14, 2017, 04:29:52 AM »
Let's say that while betting virtually you see (many) 12 winning opportunities go by and then you see a virtual loss.
The problem with the many missed wins is not only financial. Now that you saw so many good virtual spins it is even more possible to have a loss back to back, because the spins before the virtual loss were so favorable. So still, you can't be sure the next attack will be a win.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 04:33:42 AM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #78 on: March 14, 2017, 05:56:39 AM »
Well Kav we have to be realistic when dealing with systems.
12 missed opportunities strengthens your argument, for the argument's sake, but it highly unlikely that this will ever happen. At least in this particular system.
Sure if you see something like this happen, it's very likely that  when you start betting you will run into a long overdue loss.
 But this scenario is outside any realistic presumptions.
When you test a system, the results will show how many back to back wins are possible. As well as how many back to back losses. This is a vital part of  testing a system.
In this particular system the usual average of consecutive wins is about 3. Never 12 and rarely 6.
Then it is interrupted by a single loss and more rarely by 2 back to back losses.  Not a serious problem.
But if you have a system that requires betting 30 numbers, most likely you will have 10 and 15 consecutive wins very frequently. But all it takes is 3 losses to make up for a large number of wins.
There is a very close relationship of the number of virtual losses that you can employ to the number of
the average consecutive wins observed during testing as well as the number of possible consecutive losses. All you have to do is try to balance everything so that the risk is minimum.
If in this system frequent 12 consecutive wins were possible, and consecutive losses  limited to 3, then this could very well be the holly grail.
Realistically speaking the average winning opps. you have to forgo is about 3. That's the average for this system. So the most winning opps. you will miss is 3 on average.
A virtual loss almost guarantees that the in one of the next 2 triggers you will have hit.
On the other hand if you have $5000 B/R and play with $5 chip minimum, by all means there is no need to wait for anything. You can bet perpetually without fear of losing. There are no back to back losses that can happen to deplete such a high B/R.

 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #79 on: March 14, 2017, 08:58:52 AM »
The problem with the many missed wins is not only financial. Now that you saw so many good virtual spins it is even more possible to have a loss back to back, because the spins before the virtual loss were so favorable.

Since deviations (positive and negative) very often come in clumps the danger of using virtual losses is that in a way you're seeking out losing streaks. Every long losing streak begins with a shorter one. I do sometimes wait for a VL or two but just because it mixes things up a bit (there's no evidence that it increases the certainty of a win). The VL's amount to a different bet selection, and if you stick rigidly with one selection it's inevitable that  you'll enounter its extremes of variance. "Diversification" reduces variance.

Palestis, you mentioned that the system is based on the law of the third. Could you explain how? Thanks.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 09:02:31 AM by Bayes »
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #80 on: March 14, 2017, 11:17:31 AM »
Palestis, regarding the no-bet situations:

Quote
Situations where you avoid betting, and wait for things to become more normal
1. If the same dozen appears repeatedly immediately preceding the trigger. (it's a sign of anomaly that can affect the rest of the dozens).
2. If the playable target dozen ( Y), has appeared more than 3+ times immediately prior to the trigger. (meaning it has appeared enough times already and runs the risk to disappear when you begin betting it  3 times after the trigger).
3. If the first 2 bets after the trigger result in XX (same dozen as the majority dozen in the trigger, you stop and only lose 2 bets). Easily recoverable in the next trigger
4. if there is more than one 0 in the numbers preceding the trigger. (0's tend to come in packs).

Don't rules 1 & 2 collapse into one? namely : "Don't bet if any dozen appears more than 3+ times prior to the trigger".

The same dozen could be the playable target dozen (rule 2), or not. In either case, it signals a no-bet. Also could you be more precise regarding rule 4? For how many spins do we look back for 0's?

I need this information because I'm planning to add more code to the tracker which automatically adds the w/L registry and signals a no-bet if any of the above rules apply, so I need definite numbers. Currently it's a bit of a headache keeping track of both Doz/Col and adding the w/L. Also I'm planning to add another bet for the sector dozens, so there will be 3 bet selections to keep track of.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 11:19:29 AM by Bayes »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #81 on: March 14, 2017, 01:54:51 PM »
On the other hand if you have $5000 B/R and play with $5 chip minimum, by all means there is no need to wait for anything. You can bet perpetually without fear of losing. There are no back to back losses that can happen to deplete such a high B/R.

LOL.  I can go in with WHEYMOAR than only 1000 units!  How is 20000?
 

Jesper

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #82 on: March 14, 2017, 02:06:41 PM »
1000 times the bank to bet unit is never sure. Every with 10 Euro in the pocket could never lose?

I got a real run from hell, start with 1 cent and dive down 40000 units until I got a win at 20000 units.
Playing cents do not say small bets but lasting!
 
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Rinad

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #83 on: March 14, 2017, 02:27:48 PM »


  just my 2 cents,

 the less exposure to the HE,  the better off. dont stay longer in the "shark infested water" then you have to.
 play a higher unit, limited spins, and GET OUT!!!!.
  plus your hourly wage is so much greater. the casino knows that with extended period of plays they could hurt you.
 dont give them that chance.  now if you have 20.000 $ BR, by all means play black chips and take 5 of them out of the casino each day and go enjoy life.  after all it is why a good system was created. but again, you need to walk around with at least 2k in your poket to play at that level. (if not more).

Palesti's system is working by not continiously playing all the spins that roulette is throwing at you.
and it does make a difference in your overhall "spin history" because you play on your terms, not theirs.
you dont even have to play the mini series all on one table. it does not matter. the reason why you win is because you have a greater chance to "hitting" that dz that you picked then the ODDS dictate.
that is precisely why you have less back to back losses.
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #84 on: March 14, 2017, 03:13:43 PM »
My tests ultimately now agree with Bayes.  Hit and run cannot avoid the black swan because the ratio of amount won:spins is always the same. 

I however agree that it "breaks things up" and Pales' separation of triggers to me makes a great deal of sense; at least if the black swan is going to get me, it will have to do it on 14 separate & successive occasions because otherwise I will coup large.
 
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Rinad

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #85 on: March 14, 2017, 05:07:13 PM »


 see Reyth, the black swan can follow you, and can even get into the water following you. the HE is more like a shark.  so if you get out of the water soon enough he will have to bite the other guy. and after it does,you can go back into the water until his digestion is over. ;)
 

Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #86 on: March 14, 2017, 05:16:20 PM »

TRIVIA TIME!





Psssst, there is more than one shark!

 
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petespin

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #87 on: March 14, 2017, 07:33:59 PM »
i ll try to direct u at the right side with this system , after a lot of testing i conclude that.. the most important thing is in which spin [1,2,3] u won , when u win of course , after all i also count the lost triggers and exploit these scenarios ,i ll give an example as how i bet , lets say i ve won 3 triggers in a row at the very first spin , ... guess what am doing next ... i bet the other 2 dozens instead of that the trigger shows! that way minimize the odds to have a lost trigger , i do the same with all scenarios like.. counting how many triggers have won at 2nd spin,or at third spin etc...  the most basic factor is to choose the scorebord that trigger-s already lose and then start betting . 
 
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scepticus

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #88 on: March 14, 2017, 08:17:04 PM »

I think it is clear that what Palestis proposes is to limit his losses to an acceptable amount.If he  has deduced that a particular dozen will win within , say , ten spins then if he waits for ,say, 6 spins  and it has not won then it is reasonable for him to think it will win within the next 4 spins and so starts betting it.
He is not concerned if he misses wins while waiting because he has not lost any money . He merely moves to another table and waits for an opportunity - or has  tracked a few tables waiting for an opportunity at any of them.
By virtual betting he has also avoided  the number of EXPECTED zeros.
Due to the variability of winning  dozens  it can be argued that his winning opportunities has not lessened because of prior wins. Clumps do happen . If we only knew WHEN  !
 
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Rinad

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #89 on: March 14, 2017, 11:08:42 PM »
i ll try to direct u at the right side with this system , after a lot of testing i conclude that.. the most important thing is in which spin [1,2,3] u won , when u win of course , after all i also count the lost triggers and exploit these scenarios ,i ll give an example as how i bet , lets say i ve won 3 triggers in a row at the very first spin , ... guess what am doing next ... i bet the other 2 dozens instead of that the trigger shows! that way minimize the odds to have a lost trigger , i do the same with all scenarios like.. counting how many triggers have won at 2nd spin,or at third spin etc...  the most basic factor is to choose the scorebord that trigger-s already lose and then start betting .
I think what you are saying is close to what I experimented with. you are keeping track of every wins and losses in colums of 3, then you see which leg of the progression you have won or lost ?
If you could explain it a little more so it is clear, maybe with a example?  thx.
 
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