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Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 35421 times)

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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2017, 02:16:03 PM »
Hi Palestis, thought I'd give your system a try but it was tough going. I got 3 back to back losses straight away.  :o The hit rate picked up eventually but it was a tough stretch. Results in csv format (L,M,H = Low, Middle, High dozens)-

OUTCOME, W/L
M
M
H
M
M
M,L
M
L
H
H
M
M
H,L
L
L
L,L
H
M
L
L
L
M,w
H
H
H,L
L
L,w
M
M
L,L
H
M
L,w
M
M
M
L,w
L
L
L
M
L
L
L
L
M
H
H
H
L
H,L
M
L
M
H
M
H,L
M,w
M
H
M
M
L,L
M
H
M,L
H,w
H
L
M,w
M
M
M
M,L
L
M
H
H
L
H
L,L
L
H,w
H,w
L
H
M
L
L
M
M,w
L,w

I admit I wasn't strictly following all the rules about when to not bet though.

If making 3 bets at a time, the probability of at least one win is 70%, which is pretty high, but when you compare this to the probability of winning a double-dozen bet (~65%), it isn't that much higher. And a double dozen bet can lose 12 times in a row.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:17:36 PM by Bayes »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #46 on: March 10, 2017, 02:22:59 PM »
12 times meaning (3 times)*4 but actually I can simulate 16 losses on a double dozen (3 times)*5.

The chances of 12 losses on a DZ+DZ bet is 99.9996334, meaning 0.000003656 or 1 in 273,523. 

I think we can be pretty confident in the 3 back to back loss limit (quite the testimony to Pales' bet construction & analysis skills) but should have a bankroll to accomodate that 4th loss, just in case?
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:24:59 PM by Reyth »
 

palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2017, 12:00:18 AM »
Hi Palestis, thought I'd give your system a try but it was tough going. I got 3 back to back losses straight away.  :o The hit rate picked up eventually but it was a tough stretch. Results in csv format (L,M,H = Low, Middle, High dozens)-

I admit I wasn't strictly following all the rules about when to not bet though.

If making 3 bets at a time, the probability of at least one win is 70%, which is pretty high, but when you compare this to the probability of winning a double-dozen bet (~65%), it isn't that much higher. And a double dozen bet can lose 12 times in a row.
I took a look at your results, and I made notes on the cases where back to back losses occurred.
A single 3 bet loss is not a problem. And also 2 back to back losses are not a problem either.
Wherever you had 2 back to back, losses and the single 3 back to back loss you encountered , it was a clear case where  betting would not have taken place.  Because either the trigger followed a 3+ number sequence  of the same dozen or 1 or more numbers in a trigger that came from a previous cycle. And these are red flags that indicate to pause and wait for new numbers.
We are supposed to use fresh numbers, after we finish betting the 3 spins after a trigger.
Even better we let some spins go idle. So we can enter a new cycle.
This system is closely related to the law of 2/3. But you don't want to follow a continuous flow. Because you stay in the same cycle where the law of 2/3 operates.
And if the cycle expires you will have problems following an expired cycle. (A dozen is 12 numbers).
That is y you need to keep getting into new cycles all the time.
By skipping streaks and avoiding use of previous numbers, you create a brand new cycle for the law of 2/3 to do its job.
The system was passed on to a friend overseas, and out of 41 sessions in a live roulette he won all 41.
( I can have Kav call him, if he doesn't mind, and he can verify that. He is close to where Kav resides). 
But he's playing it a little differently.
After a trigger is located, he waits for it to lose the 3 bets (virtually). Then he bets the next trigger.
It takes more time, but the results are solid. 
Also some other people I passed to system on, report great results.
But we have to follow the rules.
I understand your comments about the statistics.
But if the EC's appeared 50% of the time, the dozens 33.3% of the time  etc etc. we would not have any problem winning all the time. Unfortunately things don't happen that way.
A powerful trigger is supposed to make sure that what we are betting will show up within its statistical range.
The more frequently the system achieves that, the better the system.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 02:38:49 PM by palestis »
 
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Reyth

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2017, 12:12:41 AM »
But if the EC's appeared 50% of the time, the dozens 33.3% of the time  etc etc. we would not have any problem winning all the time. Unfortunately things don't happen that way.A powerful trigger is supposed to make sure that what we are betting will show up within its statistical range. The more frequently the system achieves that, the better the system.




This system reminds me of Occam's Razor:

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

His principle would seem to apply to roulette quite well!

Dang I kind of feel a bit guilty here because I came up with my own set of triggers based on "my own roulette heart"; 4 triggers for each dozen.

I think your principle of separating spins works very well.  After a win or loss the next spin starts fresh any trigger patterns.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 07:08:43 AM by Reyth »
 
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juice

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2017, 03:29:49 AM »
Reyth, this play could be the final piece of the Talos mystery. It sure wins a lot . Just saying.
I actually like the testing of this with one press after a win. If you play perpetual and break every rule of waiting for fresh numbers to re enter a new play you will find that yes, you can lose more often, but, NOT THAT OFTEN.
Consider this....
2-2-1 / dozen 1=w, no waiting and play dozen 2 / =w, play 2 again= w, play dozen 1/ =w and so on. When the pattern finally  exstiguishes itself, when dozen 3 drops or the dominant side of the trigger runs, the damage by the player has already been done. This pattern and other winning perpetual patterns are very prevalent and will win in bursts of 3 to 5 at a time. Now if you do the simple math and consider that the single parlay attempt, after a 2/1 initial payoff , on a successful bet you are at NET 8 (eight), that's right, a NET 8 units. This is where the JUICE, is certainly worth the SQUEEZE!
Try it out you will see the power, and if you play the bet positions as a separate event as I mentioned in my last post, and play best of 5 series, it absolutely will not lose. QUITE THE OPPOSITE.
I see the play as a title fight, you have got to take a few on the chin so you can get inside and work the body and the head will eventually fall. IT IS A ONE UNIT BET THAT PAYS NET 8 UNITS, With a very high success rate! BOOM~
This might not be Talos choice of play...... But it should be, it don't get much flatter than this bet, for such a big payoff.

                                                Good Luck, juice.

Ps In this case variance is your friend .........

« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 03:46:38 AM by juice »
 
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Jake007

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2017, 05:40:15 AM »
Can someone please walk me through the progression on this?

1-1-2 and then 2-2-4

and thats it? No further progression?

I was doing great until I ended up betting 32-32-64 and thats not going to recoup all those previous bets.
 
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jekhb76

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2017, 06:26:00 AM »
Good morning Jake,
Let me try to explain what i do and i'm still riding the dozen wave quite well.

for this system to demolisch your bankroll you will need a very very bad session of more then 4 loses of 3 sets in a row or more. 3 set loses back to back doesn't hurt in the end, it's the 4+ loses that hurt, when you get a few of those in a short time, but that doesn't happen if you follow the rules.

I I use the same betting progression as you and i never needed to bed 32-32-64 units. i never had 4 back to back loses in a row with this system and i played 61 triggers up till now.

I use the following progression:

1-1-2
2-2-4
4-4-8
8-8-16
16-16-32
32-32-64
64-64-128
128-128-256

That's a 8 step progression and if you play it by the rules you only need a 3rd step max 4 if you're really unlucky.

What I do when i loses a session, i stay on the same progression level, that way I recoup right a way when i win the next round.

when it happens that i lose 3 sessions in a row, let's say the first is 1-1-2 then 2-2-4 and the n 4-4-8 i would have bet 28 units from the previous 3 losing rounds. I now need to bed 8-8-16 when i win i stay on the same level of 8-8-16 now when i win again, i'm even and i can start over with 1-1-2.

This is the furthest i got in all those hours of play. but i do not ignore the red flags, i just skip a trigger. it does take longer, but you will not be in trouble. if you adjust your bankroll to the following, and you play by the rules, you will never loses.

if you take your base bet of let's say 1u and you multiplay it by 100, ( bankroll 100u for 1u base bet) you will never reach the 100 bankroll.
5u - bankroll of 500u you're safe
10u - bankroll of 1000u you're safe

try it and let me know how it went Jake.
all the best. -Eddy
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 06:40:02 AM by jekhb76 »
 
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Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2017, 08:46:46 AM »
Thanks Palestis,

But if the EC's appeared 50% of the time, the dozens 33.3% of the time  etc etc. we would not have any problem winning all the time.

Yeah but actually I only gave those stats as an indicator of how bad things could potentially get, according to probabilities. If we take a negative 5 standard deviation event as the "limit" then a bet with win probability of 70% will at some point suffer 11 consecutive losses, which would take a 2-1 martingale type progression way beyond the house limits. Of course this ignores your advice about the skips and warning signs, but then probabilities in this game never take account of them anyway.

It was just a rough patch and I did make a profit eventually. I've found that tracking both dozens and columns and switching randomly between them seems to smooth the path somewhat, so far anyway. 
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2017, 03:51:43 PM »

Well,  that is the idea of testing as many spins as possible and never stop testing.
If theoretically 11 consecutive losses can occur, I would assume that 3 and 4 back to back losses should appear somewhat more frequently. That's 1/3 to half the way to a catastrophe.  But after thousands and thousands of test spins it doesn't happen.
And if it  looks like it is going to happen, after you have 2 back to back losses, it always gives the warning signals. So you can stop on time, until the dozen appearance mix seems more balanced.
Also the starting progression doesn't have to be 1-1-2. It could be 1-1-1.5. Like $10-10- 15.
Instead of 10-10-20. Also after 2 back to back losses, you don't have to jump into  a Martingale type progression, where any hit at any point in the progression will recover all previous losses plus make a profit.
As triggers form very fast , you can scale back the progression and restart with a small increase in the next trigger, instead of a Martingale increase. In  the next 1-2  triggers recovery should be reached. Something that's more appropriate when using high value chips like $25's, and $100,s.
When you play with small chips like in an online casino, then even with Martingale you still can't suffer a material loss even if you run into 5 or more back to back losses.
It's a matter of session B/R to minimum chip ratio.
And yes involving columns in the system, is another good idea, to diversify the play.
And whenever the target dozen dissects the target column, you can play the 4 numbers common to both. But that requires a separate research. 

As you diversify, it would take  many things to go wrong simultaneously to end up losing.
That's y they say, don't put your eggs in one basket. There must be some true to it.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 04:02:03 PM by kav »
 
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Jake007

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2017, 05:23:23 PM »

I am doing pretty good sticking with a 1-1-2, then 2-2-4 progression. If it fails beyond that its easily recoverable.

I need help on clarification of the "avoid betting" rules...

Quote
1. If the same dozen appears repeatedly immediately preceding the trigger. (it's a sign of anomaly that can affect the rest of the dozens).

Isnt this open to interpretation? I have to go with my gut feeling here. If I see X dozen appearing approx 5 or more times in the last 10 spins I will flush it out with more spins.
------------------------------------------

Quote
2. If the playable target dozen ( Y), has appeared more than 3+ times immediately prior to the trigger. (meaning it has appeared enough times already and runs the risk to disappear when you begin betting it  3 times after the trigger).

Also open to interpretation? If I see Y dozen has appeared even 2 times prior to trigger I flush it out with more spins.
------------------------------------------

Quote
3. If the first 2 bets after the trigger result in XX (same dozen as the majority dozen in the trigger, you stop and only lose 2 bets). Easily recoverable in the next trigger

This one I just dont understand.
 

Jake007

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2017, 05:29:27 PM »
I guess I am also confused on the progression.

As I understand it, if I lose the round of three bets using 1-1-2, my next round would be 2-2-4. Is that correct?

OR...

If I win during the 1-1-2 progression, my next round is 2-2-4? Then 4-4-8? and so on until I lose?
 
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jekhb76

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2017, 06:46:53 PM »
No Jake, let me try to explain the progression part.

When you have a trigger, let's say XXY D1 D1 D3
then your progression starts right away, becaue you arw placing bets from the beginning.
In this example you place 1 unit on the D3.
if you lose that bet, let's say D2 shows then you're next bet is also 1 unit. If you lose the 3e round, let's say 3rd spin is also D2 then you're 3rd bet is then 1.5 or 2 units. by then you have bet 1 round of 3 bets. 1-1-2 (1.5) then you start again waiting for the next trigger shows up. when you now start betting then you're first bet is 2. so you just follow the sequence 1-1-2 (1.5) 2-2-4  etc. So to make things clear, the first bet you make is the first bet in the progression. Hope this helps.
 
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Jake007

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2017, 07:39:55 PM »
OK Thank You for explaining! I have been doing it all wrong. When an X appeared I would do the next 3 bets on X or less if it hit. I would then spin to find the next X to bet on using 2-2-4.

It worked pretty good actually :) capping two sets of progressions.

Your explanation will take longer, but looks far safer. Thanks again for guiding.
 
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Rinad

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #58 on: March 12, 2017, 02:05:41 AM »


 this single dz is great because of the selection,triggers,new batch of numbers each time.

I played it yesturday on a air ball roulette combined with the one number system and had fun with.
because that small edge of not losing a dz as often as if one was to just pick one randomly it can bring a lot of $$$ in your pockets. but you have to be patient and not be too quick to make-up for losing a couple of triggers.
this could be anyone'worst enemy.
you begin playing, wins often, get a superman complex, and then all of a sudden start losing. so instead of being picky like you were before about your triggers, you start to "compromise a little" because the pain of losing what you had just won is right here. so beware of that.

I lost 3 back to back once yesturday. I was debating aboucriss[/size][size=78%]t let in it go,take a loss, or go for the "jugular" and do a 4th level. I decided to go for it, but this time I would wait for ultimate timing.[/size]
I would wait for a colum and a dz to "-cross at the same time" adding value to my selection before making a biger bet. in other words I would need 2 triggers instead of just 1.
I did and won the bet at the first spin.

I  also added 2 split bets where the colum and dozen crossroad.
in other words covered those 4 numbers. adding inside numbers to your dozen that you play is also a way to play a progression without having to raise the dozen bet too high. be creating, you can play the whole system flat bet and just go up on inside numbers,quads,splits,ect... the sky is the limit.
just something to consider if betting big bets is not your cup of tea. it is not mine, but somehow adding inside bets seem easier on the blood pressure . great sharing on this forum, you are all great.
 
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palestis

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #59 on: March 12, 2017, 02:09:44 AM »
Jake,

Yes the 1-1-2 or 1-1-1.5 (both  legitimate progressions for dozens, and it is a personal choice)  are the beginning of the bets. As long as you win in one of those 3 spins, you still start with 1-1-2 again. You only go to 2-2-4 if you lost the 1-1-2. But you always come back to the basic bet 1-1-2 as long as you win or you just recovered from a loss
That is your base bet. You only go to the next progression increase if you lose the 3 bets round.

About the "avoiding bets" issue:
 Yes it is open to interpretation. I said if there is a consecutive predominant dozen just before the trigger is best to avoid betting after the trigger.
But as  you said if one dozen has appeared 5 more times in the last 10 spins (prior to the trigger), then  by all means avoid betting. It doesn't have to follow the rules exactly as I mentioned it.
You can certainly add your own ideas. If something looks unusual, before the trigger the rule of thumb is to avoid betting. Triggers form very fast. So by waiting for a few more spins to bypass an unusual event, won't take much of your time. But it can make a big difference in certainty.

About the XX that you don't understand here is an example:
 We have 22-24-5. The XXY is 221. The target dozen is the first dozen.
But after you bet the first dozen 2 times  and 16-20 came up, you stop right there. Because now you have the 2nd dozen that appeared 4 times in 5 spins. Which brings you back to the first rule.
The only thing you can't avoid is the fact that  you lost the 2 spins.
This rule saves you from possibly losing the 3rd spin. Which is the most damaging out of the 3 spins.
You can use the units saved towards the next trigger.
Another:  you have 1-15-8. You play the 2nd dozen 3 bets. If in the first 2 bets 4-9 shows up you stop and only lost 2 units. No need to risk 2 more units.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 01:39:15 PM by kav »
 
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