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Author Topic: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)  (Read 1134 times)

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Bayes

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Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« on: January 05, 2017, 09:23:36 AM »
This is a preview of software which tracks various bets and shows the EC marquees which are updated every cycle (according to the cycle length for that particular bet). This preview version only shows the single numbers (for which the cycle is 25 spins) but I will be adding dozens/columns, lines, streets, and splits (selected from the options tab, which is currently empty).

There a lots of ways you can use the information (hot numbers cold numbers, patterns...). For example, in my first trial run (in the screenshot) I tracked 2 cycles (50 spins) after which there were 8 numbers with LL. A chip on each of these numbers produced a profit after 3 spins. I removed the chip from the winning number and continued with the remaining 7. Continuing this way generated a profit of 34 units after 8 spins (flat betting).



P.S. The screenshot shows the program on my Linux system (if anyone uses Linux let me know and I'll upload it), but the windows version doesn't show the number buttons coloured when using the Windows emulator. Could someone confirm that the numbers are coloured on Windows? Thanks.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 09:55:39 AM by Bayes »


 
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kav

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2017, 09:36:56 AM »
Great job Bayes!
No the numbers are not colored in Windows.
Maybe we can contribute ideas what stats to track for future updates?
 
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Bayes

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2017, 09:51:58 AM »
Maybe we can contribute ideas what stats to track for future updates?

One possibility is to track sectors around the number which hit last. E.g. sectors of length 3,5,7,9... although the cycles/probabilities for an equivalent EC bet may not be exact.

update:

For 3 number sector : same as street - at least one hit in 8 spins, probability = 0.49
for 5 number sector: at least one hit in 5 spins, probability = 0.52
for 7 number sector: at least one hit in 3 spin, probability = 0.47

For larger sectors you need to look at "at least X hits", where X > 1, because if X = 1 the probabilities aren't close enough to EC.

For 9 number sector at least three hits in 11 spins, probability = 0.52
For 11 number sector, this is similar to a dozen/column, so at least 2 hits in 5 spins, probability = 0.47.
For 13 number sector, at least 3 hits in 7 trials, probability = 0.47.
For 15 number sector, at least 3 hits in 6 trials, probability = 0.47.

I think that's far enough. Any more numbers will reduce profitability.

« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 10:21:54 AM by Bayes »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2017, 03:39:34 PM »
Question

Assume i track a single number and i get no hit at 25 spins - then i should not have a loss - as i have no show - then at 30 spin my single number hit - then it should hit again with in 25 spins to become a EC bet - a win.

But you track each cycle with 25 spins as a Loss or a Win.
So if my single number hit once within 25 spins there is a win and if there is no hit within 25 spins there is a loss.
So if a number sleep for 50 spins i get two loses.

That is not how i understand the random bit - maybe i am wrong.

For example corner bet can sleep for 12 spins but does not mean i got two blacks (EC bet) with 6 spins cycles x 2
I wait for my corner to hit once then it should hit once again within 6 spins to become a (EC bet).

Bayes can you tell me what is what - if i am wrong then i have to play and look different at the random bits - but if i am right then your software is not working correctly.

Again i see a single number hit then my expectation is that it should hit once more within 25 spins to become a EC bet - but your program is not working like that.

Cheers
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 03:43:30 PM by Sputnik »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2017, 09:42:00 AM »

 Ok i Think i understand that there is two ways as i write above.

1) First one is that you run cycles with trails for 25 attempts - no hit and you get black and a hit you get red - as EC bet cycle based with single number.

2) If you play after a hit, then is the same as start betting when you colour has hit once.
So if i would play there would be at least two reds againt 6 single reds, then i would attack after each hit for 25 attempts for single number bet and if i would lose all six cycles i would have six single reds.

Cheers
 
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Bayes

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2017, 09:46:19 AM »
Hi Sputnik, there seems to be some confusion here.

Assume i track a single number and i get no hit at 25 spins - then i should not have a loss - as i have no show

Yes, you will have a loss because the status of the bet (W or L) is updated once every 25 spins.

Quote
But you track each cycle with 25 spins as a Loss or a Win.
So if my single number hit once within 25 spins there is a win and if there is no hit within 25 spins there is a loss.
So if a number sleep for 50 spins i get two loses.

Correct.  :)

Quote
That is not how i understand the random bit - maybe i am wrong.

For example corner bet can sleep for 12 spins but does not mean i got two blacks (EC bet) with 6 spins cycles x 2
I wait for my corner to hit once then it should hit once again within 6 spins to become a (EC bet).

For a quad bet the spin window is 6 spins (probability of at least one hit in 6 spins = 0.5 rounded up). After 12 spins in which a particular quad doesn't show this is equivalent to two EC losses - LL (just like LL for a single number would be 50 losses).

Remember that in all cases we are talking about at least one hit in the spin window (there might be more, but it still only counts as one W)

The program is working ok given the assumption that it should update once every 25 spins. If a number doesn't hit at all in the 25 spin it gets a L, otherwise (one or more hits), it gets a W.
 
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Bayes

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2017, 09:56:26 AM »
The scheme works on two "levels".

  • Each particular bet in a group of bets (single numbers, streets, lines etc) is given its own individual and independent "marquee" of W/L which corresponds to the same probabilities of an EC bet like Red or Black.
  • The group can be regarded as a whole. For example, for single numbers, after 25 spins approximately half of the numbers will be given a W and the other half a L. You could think of this as the "Law of the Half".  :) . Similarly, tracking the streets after 8 spins , 6 of the streets will have a W and the other 6 will have a L (on average). This is the Law of the Half for streets. Note that this "law" is only valid for groups which consist of mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, so it doesn't apply to quads because quads overlap.
So when creating systems using the scheme, you can make use of both aspects. The possibilities are endless.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 09:58:22 AM by Bayes »
 
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Bayes

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2017, 10:07:40 AM »

2) If you play after a hit, then is the same as start betting when you colour has hit once.
So if i would play there would be at least two reds againt 6 single reds, then i would attack after each hit for 25 attempts for single number bet and if i would lose all six cycles i would have six single reds.

Be careful  not to curve fit or commit the gambler's fallacy. You should make your bets for each 25 spin cycle in advance, not start a new cycle by looking back some arbitrary number of spins based on what just happened and then "defining" the beginning of a new cycle from then on. The 25 spin cycles are fixed, so you shouldn't redefine where they begin and end, otherwise the whole scheme becomes meaningless.
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2017, 11:06:51 AM »

Ok i understand ...
Thanks for your effort Bayes - great contribution.

Cheers
 

Sputnik

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2017, 04:04:28 PM »
Question

If i track a single number or any other position and they hit within expectation several times.
Then i assume i just from the last hit count for a new window of attempts.
If not then how do you deal with a broken cycle that is not Clean with one hit only.

a) Example a single number hit twice within 25 attempts (2 reds) then i forward the next 25 attempts as a EC bet cycle.

b) Using one side of the coin and wait for a hit and then attack for a cycle does not create this issue as you only forward each new cycle for each new hit - see my explination above betting one color only.

So how does your software handle that situation where there is more then one hit with one single number within 25 attempts - do you get several winning signs W for each cycle with 25 attempts.

But i can be wrong again so i wait for you answear.

I test your softwar and click on several wins with number 1 within a cycle of 25 attempts and it only show one win - but in reality i got several reds in a row with no blacks present.
But if i had play one color only i had been notice and charting and tracking several wins for red from where you start from one hit and forward the cycle with amount of attempts.

Here is a clear example:
A minus sign show that a single number hit within 25 attempts and a plus sign show that a number does not hit within 25 attempts and a equal sign show that a number hit on the 25th attempt.

 - - - + - - + - + - -

So here we can charting and track if a single number hit several times within 25 attempts.
Then we get several minus signs. And each time is missing a cycle of 25 attempts we get a plus sign.
8 reds and 3 blacks

Cheers
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 04:44:45 PM by Sputnik »
 
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Bayes

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2017, 11:58:48 AM »
Question

So how does your software handle that situation where there is more then one hit with one single number within 25 attempts - do you get several winning signs W for each cycle with 25 attempts.

But i can be wrong again so i wait for you answear.

Yes, wrong again.  :)

Only one W for one or more hits within 25. This is because the probabilities are different for exactly one hit vs one or more hits.

The probability of one or more hits within 25 spins is 50%, which gives you the EC equivalence.



But for exactly one hit the probability is lower:


 
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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2017, 12:45:14 PM »

 Ok thanks Bayes :-)
 

kav

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Re: Tracking Software (high odds to EC)
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2017, 10:58:09 AM »
Just saying....

Yes the probability for only one and at least one hit are different. But the probability (50%) of no hit is standard. So maybe Sputnik has a point and it is worth starting a new cycle after a win.