Author Topic: Best progression for 4 numbers bet  (Read 1842 times)

Sputnik

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2017, 02:09:50 PM »
Sputnik,
I guess each + represent a sequence where the hit appeared after the 6th spin, right?
The big question is what do we do after the 6th spin? Do we keep betting? Or we only bet the first 6 spins after a hit?
If we keep betting after the 6th spin then the actual length of a + sequence if of great importance.

The probabilistic problem that makes the puzzle hard to solve is that after the 6th spin, can theoretically begin a new cycle, so betting after the 6th spin can be considered a new sequence and equal to betting in the first 6 spins. (theoretically there is no difference since roulette has no memory)

Yes + sign pass and minus sign hit.
Now you talking about the real thing and i will give example.

1) Bayes says that one hit or several hits within a cycle count as one.
This means that you can track the random bits in cycles of six with no hit or hit within does cycles.
If you chart and tracking them as Yes and No you will get the same distribution as Red and Black.
YNYYYNNYNYNYYNNNNYYNYNYYY

2) Assume you follow one color only, then color you follow has to hit before you can attack, so if you would bet against six singles to catch at least a serie of two, then it would be the same using the following approch with quads. You see one quad hit then you bet for six attempts (one cycle) no hit and you get a Black and if you win you get a serie of Red.

NOTE this is based upon my understanding.
I know GF - but i put my money on does event that has a hit to hit more, then following a slepping path that might never end (stop sleeping).

Feel free to make your own conclusion - i assume you get more results of the random bits with option one (not meaning more action or attacks) just the charting and tracking results, then option two.

Cheers
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2017, 03:24:33 PM »
Thanks for your reply Sputnik.

Another relevant topic started by Janus (Winkel):
any 4 Numbers
 

Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2017, 01:19:56 PM »
Our enemy is not only the 65spins type of gap but for example 2 or 3 25-spin gaps after each other, which is quite uncommon, but can be ruin if we have the wrong progression.
The good thing is that half (50%) of the gaps are 6 or less spins.

After testing this a little, here is the best I could come up with.  Only raise bets after a hit.  Progression would be 10% of negative balance.  Let's say you're betting 1 unit on a quad, and you would get your first hit in 25 spins.  (-25+9)...you now have a negative balance of -16.  Now raise your wager to 2 units (16×10%).  Now it goes another 25 spins (-50+18)...you now have a negative balance of -48 (-32-16).  So this time you wager 5 units (48*10%).  Next hit is in 3 spins...your balance is now -18. 

From the few test I've tried, this progression seems pretty safe....even if there or 2 or 3 consecutive long gaps....as long as it is followed by 1 short gap (6 or less)
 
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Jesper

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2017, 05:26:42 PM »
HHOO! The number we bet, (not the numbers bet) If we know the difference we know some more than before.
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2017, 06:59:22 PM »
Thanks Scarface.
I will study your suggestions and come back.
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2017, 01:06:13 PM »
Scarface,

You have a nice suggestion, similar to divisor plan.
With your approach one fast win will very nearly eliminate most of the losses.

After thinking about it (testing scenarios) I would say that it could be made even softer and safer. For example add a rule that the bet can never exceed 5 units or something like that. I think that this kind of additional rule can keep the progression from exploding and still recoup the losses fast enough.

My own thinking about the 4-numbers bet is to start with a strong bet after a hit and as there are no hits lower the bet. For example start with 8 units after a hit, then if after 5 spins no hit, lower to 5 units, then if after 5 more spins no hit lower even more. The point is that the average bet on the long losing sequences (12+ spins without a hit) is much lower than the sequences with frequent hits.

Maybe the perfect system should incorporate both ideas:
  • Your slow up as you lose, steady percentage (or divisor) progression
  • And my down as you lose progression
Have not decided yet how this can be done.

More feedback is greatly appreciated.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 11:07:43 PM by kav »
 
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Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2017, 10:59:53 PM »
Kav, thanks for the feedback!  It really got me thinking.  So, I ran some quick test on combining my divisor approach after a hit with your idea of lowering the bet on loosing streaks.  I tested this with dozens just to make the math easier on paper, looking at about 11 gaps which were a horrible scenerio.  If it would work with dozens, it should work with quads too.  Honestly, I didn't think it would work....but wow! 

My way of using a divisor after a hit had HUGE drawdowns compared to using the divisor+down as you go method.  As soon as I get the method down for a 4 number quad bet, I will post it here.

Definitely seems like Divisor+Down as you go is the way to go.  I know this is for a 4 number bet.....but, I was thinking if we were to use a parachute method it would also be a powerful to to keep the bets low for even longer period of time.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2017, 10:21:25 PM »
Kav,

If we were to look at the last 4 numbers hit out of all 37 numbers, would worse case scenerio be around 90?  Working on a parachute+progression method and was wondering worse case
 

Scarface

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2017, 02:04:36 AM »
Here's what I'm thinking.  Let's say that we know 4 numbers won't pass 90 spins before a hit.  What if we started off betting 12 numbers...after each hit we drop a number, so the next bet is on remaining 11 numbers...next on 10..etc.

What we do know starting out is we should hit 9 numbers in 90 spins.

We bet 12 numbers and it takes 9 spins before a hit.  Next bet 11 numbers and it takes 7 spins before a hit.  Next bet 10 numbers and it takes 12 spins before a hit.  So far, we have 3 hits in 28 spins....so that means we know we should be guaranteed 6 more hits within the next 62 spins (90-9-7-12=62).

If we know we'll get 6 hits in 62 spins, there should be an algorithm or progression to guarantee a win.
 
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kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2017, 05:41:11 PM »
Not sure I'm following you perfectly. But most importantly, this not a 4 numbers bet.
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2017, 08:11:02 PM »
Further stats
Based on the datasheet here http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1273.msg18322#msg18322
The probability of the first hit occurring on each spin of a string of spins is as follows:

Spin  Probability to hit
1:      10,8 (%)
2:      9,7
3:      8,6
4:      7,6
5:      6,9
6:      6,1
7:      5,4
8:      4,9
9:      4,2
10:     3,9
11:     3,5
12:     3,1
13:     2,7
14:     2,4
15:     2,2
16:     2

etc...


Another way to put this is that if we observe 1000 gaps between hits, then
108 gaps will be zero (immediate hits)
97 gaps will be 1 spin
86 gaps will be 2 spins
76 gaps will be 3 spins
69 gaps will be 4 spins
etc.

To be continued, though you see where I'm going: it is better after a hit to follow with a value bet and then decrease it over time as no-hit spins go by.

Any relevant feedback is appreciated.
 

Reyth

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #26 on: February 18, 2017, 08:26:41 PM »
Our enemy is not only the 65spins type of gap but for example 2 or 3 25-spin gaps after each other, which is quite uncommon, but can be ruin if we have the wrong progression.
The good thing is that half (50%) of the gaps are 6 or less spins.

After testing this a little, here is the best I could come up with.  Only raise bets after a hit.  Progression would be 10% of negative balance.  Let's say you're betting 1 unit on a quad, and you would get your first hit in 25 spins.  (-25+9)...you now have a negative balance of -16.  Now raise your wager to 2 units (16×10%).  Now it goes another 25 spins (-50+18)...you now have a negative balance of -48 (-32-16).  So this time you wager 5 units (48*10%).  Next hit is in 3 spins...your balance is now -18. 

From the few test I've tried, this progression seems pretty safe....even if there or 2 or 3 consecutive long gaps....as long as it is followed by 1 short gap (6 or less)

You can combine the Turbo method and the Boom! technique:

1) Bet 1 unit 8 times.  If you miss raise 1 unit and start over.
2) If you hit with less than 32 units profit, then reduce back to 1 unit and start over.
3) If you hit with 32 units of profit or more accrued, then divide all profit by 16 for the bet amount for 8 spins.
4) Repeat number 3 on any hit within 8 spins or after 8 spins until you have less than 32 units of profit.
5) Enter back into the standard Turbo progression (probably 2 units) and bet as usual until 32+ units of profit.
 
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Geoffrey

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2017, 02:50:33 AM »
interesting topic. wouldn't it be nice to have a topic that covers progression for any kind of bet? making some sort of guidline depending on the total of numbers you bet, getting the adecuate progession ? for those familiar with BJ, i'm thinking of basic strategy card, but then for roulette purpases.
 

kav

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2017, 08:46:14 AM »
Geoffrey,
Indeed, but there is no point starting a topic if there is no method yet.
In fact if you search you can find some systems for dozens, double streets, 5 numbers etc.
- - -

Now back to the 4 number (corner bet) progression.
Here is a very nice progression for a corner bet, always based on the logic of catching a trend and slowing down when your numbers go cold.

6 units x 3 spins
4 units x 3spins
2 units x 3 spins
1 unit till hit
On a hit start over with 6 units.

This is a very aggressive progression meaning that the profits are amazing when you get repeated hits within 4 spins, but if you miss such hits it can lose often.

A more balanced approach is this:

2 units x 2 spins
3 units x 4 spins
2 units x 3 spins
1 unit till hit
On a hit start over with 2 units.

To the latter progression, besides the "catch a trend and slowing down when your numbers go cold" concept, I have incorporated an additional idea:
We know that the the average expectation is one hit every 9 spins. We also know that probability for a hit in the first 6 spins is 50%.  If we use the same bet for the first 6 spins we get more profit the earlier we get the hit. Yet variance can change everything temporarily and we don't want to depend too much on those early hits. Therefore in the first 6 spins we use a progression that gives more or less the same profit, no matter in which spin we get the hit, we try to even out the early hit big win and later hit less profits phenomenon (always within the first 6 spins).

I also want to point out that I have done extensive study before presenting these.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 09:45:41 AM by kav »
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Best progression for 4 numbers bet
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2017, 01:23:09 PM »
What is also a good method, wich is a bit boring to do, but will end always in profit when your are using a good progression with a BOOM! method in it.

The way I do it sometimes when i'm bored and don't feel like anything is to spin the wheel until you have 4 unique numbers left from the 37 this including the zero. most of the time you reach 4 numbers left between spin 50-70. and of we are taking note that 4 numbers will not show for a max of 95 spins, then we have only max 45 spins left in wich they must fall. I truly believe that we can make a propper progression for these max 45 spins.
it is a long wait for 50-70 spins all the time, but for once in a while it's something different. and you will always be in profit, when don right. last week i did this and ended up after 3hours of play in a +-125 euro profit. listen to some music and sit back for a spinning ride with a decent profit after an hour.
 
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