Author Topic: Traders at the roulette table  (Read 1716 times)

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Real

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2016, 06:03:05 PM »
Tickseeker,

There are about a zillion reasons as to why what you're doing won't work. 

First and foremost, each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial.  In other words the same number pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, therefore the odds do not change from one spin to the next.  There is no comparison to trading stocks.
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2016, 06:32:56 PM »

tickseeker i apoliges i rush into argument and read topic to fast.
Yes La Partage Rule is great, you lose half your bet if zero strike and keep the other half.

Keep up the good work.
If you want some basic and good roulette books you can PM me and i will give you a copy.

Cheers

No problem.

Thank you very much for your offer. I am currently reading stuff about streaks/trends/clusters in randomness if you have anything you recommend for this area I would be very interested in to know.

Currently Im reading the paper Perceptions of Randomness: Why Three Heads Are Better Than Four (Ulrike Hahn and Paul A. Warren) and there is some other papers waiting too.
 
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tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2016, 06:33:48 PM »
Tickseeker,

There are about a zillion reasons as to why what you're doing won't work. 

First and foremost, each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial.  In other words the same number pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, therefore the odds do not change from one spin to the next.  There is no comparison to trading stocks.

Please read more carefully my posts until reply.

And what comes to the question about the similarities between futures/stocks trading and roulette yes of course they are 2 different world. I understand very well the basics of the roulette table and it's propabilities. I come from very short term trading so believe or not there is similiarities between thes two things and this is why I will give a change for this.

Technical analysis is a very wide concept and I see there is many areas where it should give you a great help. You just should not use these tools by the same way as you do for example in trading side.

This really is the place where you have to come out from your box.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 08:04:06 PM by tickseeker »
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2016, 07:21:55 PM »
By these latest 2 posts I also introduced my development and backtesting platform which is Amibroker Pro. IMO the best retail side analysis and strategy development application for technical analysis. Very fast and has everything you will ever need. I've been using it since 2005.

Are you actually plugging in true payouts and losses via numbers 0-36 or are you simulating "results" in some other manner?

Sorry I had to ask...
 
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tickseeker

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2016, 07:43:57 PM »
Are you actually plugging in true payouts and losses via numbers 0-36 or are you simulating "results" in some other manner?

Sorry I had to ask...

The spins data is from the file found in this site (1 million spins from real roulette table if I remember right). The noise map shows the data should be quite ok.

Lines on those charts are calculated by the roulette rules spin by spin (cumulative) using the normal payout rules. So the trends are telling you how (in units) the bet or group of bets are working for you and how they perform compared each other with different kind of betting system settings or versions.

Of course those posted charts where just stupid examples but there is no limit how complex betting system you want to test. I have a frame work (bunch of Amibroker scripts) where I can test strategies and systems easily so that everything can be viewed visually. Lot of optimization capabilities too IF needed.

Results should be quite real until I have managed to do a bug(s) into my scripts  ;D
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 07:52:10 PM by tickseeker »
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2016, 08:09:00 PM »
Wow your setup is very advanced and efficient. :D
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2016, 08:24:53 PM »
Wow your setup is very advanced and efficient. :D

I think it is on the level where I can use it. I can also use it while betting (in realtime) to follow things are developing as expected. I have tested it couple of 100s spins and it looks quite stable. Easy to use too. But currently I am doing research side so will see in future how I will develop it more for live situations.
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2016, 08:44:28 PM »
I have to code from scratch for each simulation or monitor.  I do have a few "modules" that I can plug in for certain things but I am on the level of ABC blocks against what you have. :)
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2016, 01:16:00 PM »
I saw nice new threads set up here :) .

I decided to make my points here in this thread because I feel it is better to do so.

So let me explain a bit more why I am here.

The easy answer is I am currently on pause from trading activities because of christmas and new year change. Risks to get caught in high leveraged intraday positions while there is no normal quantities of buyers/sellers around to let me out of my s***ty position is too much risk for me (slippage risk). Also I do pauses every now and then. It is good for execution (mind).

But an another reason besides I have now time to do this is that in short term intraday trading what I do the trends and their durations are very much like random. This is mainly because I do not have an access to those algorithms (source codes) to see what and why they are doing what they are doing. I do not say this is 100% reason for those short term trends but lot of trends are generated by the algos made by people. And again remember I am talking about the very short term trading now.

So while trading I often do not have any idea why the price is going up or down giving me the situation very similar what I think is happening at roulette table. This leads my mind into a question: If I am able to generate consistent profits from trading random (from my point of view) short term intraday trends why it does not work at the roulette table too ?

We all very well know that trends/streaks belongs to a randomness. They are a very tight part of if. We just have to remember that we do not know in advance when they occur and what will be their duration. The very same situation what happens in short term finance.

This is the purpose of my journey on here. To get an answer for this. I also think this real randomness will have a good effect for my trading because I will understand the randomeness better.

So this is a hobby for me and there is another reason too why I do not take this extra very serious is that even If some day I am able to trade roulette streaks is there any casino who will accept me to do it very long ? I do not have a change to start to go around the real casinos physically so I am forced to use Live internet casions where they will exactly know who I really am and can profile me as a Banana Boy (banned).

In finance you do not have to think this kind of problems. No matter did you just make half a million profits in just 1 trade or not. Also it is clear that roulette cannot scale up much.

This was some thoughts about the situation from the trader at the roulette table.

Tick

btw. Pls do not get me wrong. Trends in short term trading is only one part of it. There I can trade many other patterns which does not have any meaning here. This is why I am talking about trends only.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 01:34:40 PM by tickseeker »
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2016, 01:44:03 PM »

 tickseeker ask Kav for premission to join the special section.
 There is a topic that describe how you can measuring Red/Black using STDS.
 That way you can see how the distribution grow stroner or weaker or hovering around average.
 Very good benchmark if you look for Tools to measuring variance and fluctation.
 Nice for develop Entering Point and Exit Points.
 Also good to understand how the Bell Curve unfold.

 Cheers
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #25 on: December 27, 2016, 01:49:56 PM »
Thanks Sputinik.

That is very much what I am doing with my charts.

I allready have the permisison. Ill go there and check.
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #26 on: December 27, 2016, 02:04:19 PM »

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1014.0
Dummy chart over the STDS values and explination how to measuring events.

Cheers
 

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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #27 on: December 27, 2016, 05:54:34 PM »
I'm following this topic with great interest and I'm sure it will evolve in interesting ways over time.
I just want to post a link to its "sister topic" for reference:
Technical analysis for roulette
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #28 on: December 27, 2016, 10:31:47 PM »
There are similarities, both are full of players who put a lot of work, that does not really lead to anything sensible sustainable, that is a lucky move will be used and refined. A (big) difference is that markets can play "Follow the Leader" and self-fulfilled its prophecies. This has been well rarely seeing roulette wheels do.

The methods can generate dangerous losses in both roulette and the trading. 
 
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Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #29 on: December 28, 2016, 03:30:29 PM »
I saw nice new threads set up here :) .

I decided to make my points here in this thread because I feel it is better to do so.

So let me explain a bit more why I am here.

The easy answer is I am currently on pause from trading activities because of christmas and new year change. Risks to get caught in high leveraged intraday positions while there is no normal quantities of buyers/sellers around to let me out of my s***ty position is too much risk for me (slippage risk). Also I do pauses every now and then. It is good for execution (mind).

But an another reason besides I have now time to do this is that in short term intraday trading what I do the trends and their durations are very much like random. This is mainly because I do not have an access to those algorithms (source codes) to see what and why they are doing what they are doing. I do not say this is 100% reason for those short term trends but lot of trends are generated by the algos made by people. And again remember I am talking about the very short term trading now.

So while trading I often do not have any idea why the price is going up or down giving me the situation very similar what I think is happening at roulette table. This leads my mind into a question: If I am able to generate consistent profits from trading random (from my point of view) short term intraday trends why it does not work at the roulette table too ?

We all very well know that trends/streaks belongs to a randomness. They are a very tight part of if. We just have to remember that we do not know in advance when they occur and what will be their duration. The very same situation what happens in short term finance.

This is the purpose of my journey on here. To get an answer for this. I also think this real randomness will have a good effect for my trading because I will understand the randomeness better.

So this is a hobby for me and there is another reason too why I do not take this extra very serious is that even If some day I am able to trade roulette streaks is there any casino who will accept me to do it very long ? I do not have a change to start to go around the real casinos physically so I am forced to use Live internet casions where they will exactly know who I really am and can profile me as a Banana Boy (banned).

In finance you do not have to think this kind of problems. No matter did you just make half a million profits in just 1 trade or not. Also it is clear that roulette cannot scale up much.

This was some thoughts about the situation from the trader at the roulette table.

Tick

btw. Pls do not get me wrong. Trends in short term trading is only one part of it. There I can trade many other patterns which does not have any meaning here. This is why I am talking about trends only.

Meh.  You're hallucinating.  Remember the white noise pictures you posted?  There is no difference between the micro and the macro -- day trading is not random like roulette; you proved that!