Author Topic: Technical analysis for roulette  (Read 2504 times)

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kav

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Technical analysis for roulette
« on: December 21, 2016, 11:57:43 AM »
We have explained in various occasions the many similarities or roulette and the Stock market:

Roulette vs Stock Market.
Gambling vs Trading (a comparison)

Now trading is very similar to gambling and one of the main strategies of traders is what they call technical analysis. Technical analysis consist of looking at the graph of the price of a stock over time and trying to predict if the price will go higher or lower next. This prediction is based on rules and patterns that have been identified by stock graphs in general or the stock graph of the specific stock.

Now my question is: Could we apply the concept of technical analysis at roulette?

First of all we need to create a graph.
As different stocks have different graphs, different bets would also have different graphs. For example for the same spin sequence the graph of the bet Black will be very different from the graph of the bet 3rd dozen. But we will discuss of different bets later, let's just focus on simple chances (Red, Black, High, Low, Odd and Even bets).

Even for the same bet (betting Black for example) we can create various graphs. The graph can simply show the outcomes over time, like the graph below...

But there are more ways to construct a graph. For example one can take the last 4 spins and depending on the wins in the last 4 spins, give to each 4-spin sequence, a value between 0 and 4. Then we can create a different graph. The value will never go below zero and it will be a representation not of single spins but of consecutive 4-spin sequences.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 06:37:59 PM by kav »


 
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Bayes

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2016, 01:59:41 PM »
I agree Kav. There are lots of analyses from the world of trading which could be applied to roulette. I wrote software some time ago which plotted "point & figure" charts which aren't too popular these days with traders, but it worked quite well with the even chances.

See this thread by Sputnik:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=295.msg2445#msg2445
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2016, 05:18:22 PM »

I have a understanding about this and we Think in the same way, yesterday i was going to explain how, where and why 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300 trails can have only two state present and sometimes a mix with Three different states.
I was going to discuss Entering Points and Exit Points, when to jump in and ride the wave and when to fold it and quit.
Was going to talk about trending the market with 1.35% house edge using even Money bets with La Partage rule. Observe the market Changes and explore them.
Was also going to talk about how to know when you are ahead with better and more simple teting then The Van Kellen test where i find ''Conquer the Casinos'' by Philip Koetsch have more advante to hes approch where you define what it means being ahead.

All this flat betting with different options for algorhitms to explore the market or states that unfold.
It exist different options for clustering states into odds and probability that are other then 1 in 2 or 50/50 odds where you can compare the clustering levels using the same probability as a Dice has.

But you get so many members to join the discussion with negativity and who no has my respect.
I can use my fingers to name does who i respect and would get into discussion with.

So i avoid typing and discusse such things.

Cheers
 

Bayes

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2016, 05:44:45 PM »
Here's a nice site which explains the many technical indicators used in trading, and their interpretation. Some of the concepts don't apply to roulette, like volume and weight of money, but most of the indicators could be adapted quite easily.

 

scepticus

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2016, 06:56:32 PM »
I think some collaboration is needed in this .
In stock and financial markets you  only chart one market whereas there are multitudes of roulette wheels . Collaboration would mean that any method derived from the data should  ( may ) be applicable on any wheel anywhere.
 
 

Sputnik

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2016, 07:03:05 PM »
Lets give it a try - assume that each sequense has its own property, state or formation.
As Micro states we talk about Three outcomes or less for each property, state or formation.

If we look at Markow Chains where each property is more like a sequnse with five outcomes or less.
I come to the conclusion that you can clustering the even Money into Three different states or property where there is two different ways to approch the Matrix.

Three property states has the same odds and probability as dozen or columns wish is 1 in 3.
And depening on property so will two events out of Three doimant with repeats or bias during periods.

So is clear and valid assumption that a baccarat shoe with 80 trails can contine with only two property during the hole shoe or mix results of all Three states.
Same with Roulette where you can find 50, 100 , 150 ,200, 250, 300 trails with only two property present and some times a mix with all three.

So there is variance and fluctation, but a tendency towards repeats, domination or bias when we observe the property unfold in Three different states.
Here is a chart that describe the tendency.

Here is the frequense a property fall into sleep and where two states dominate.

Miss 1 time: 67.56% ( or 1/0.6756 =once every 1.48 spins)
Miss 2 times: (25/37)^2 = 0.4565 = 45.65% (or 1/0.4565 =once every 2.19 spins)
Miss 3 times: (25/37)^3 = 0.3084 = 30.84% (or 1/0.3084 =once every 3.24 spins)
Miss 4 times: (25/37)^4 = 0.2084 = 20.84% (or 1/0.2084 =once every 4.79 spins)

...etc... so. rounded up

Miss 5 times = once every 7 spins
Miss 6 times = once every 11 spins
Miss 7 times = once every 16 spins
Miss 8 times = once every 23 spins
Miss 9 times = once every 34 spins
Miss 10 times = once ever 50 spins
Miss 15 times = once every 358 spins
Miss 20 times = once every 2542 spins
Miss 24 as Mogul said = once every 12K spins
Miss 34 as notto said  = once every 615K
Miss 50 times = once every 326M spins
Miss 100 times = once in a blue moon and stars, planets, meteors all aligned together

Credits for the math chart goes to a member with the name BellagioOwner at another forum board.
From this data we can build expecation of range with common repeats or domination - bias.

This methodology works with one single colour or side or using both when charting and tracking.

« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 07:32:30 PM by Sputnik »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2016, 08:57:44 PM »
Hi sputnik
So your 2 dominant states opposing one " sleeper " could apply to the Dozens or Columns and the chance of the sleeper staying asleep for, say, 4 spins is 4.79 ?
 

kav

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2016, 10:15:10 PM »

I have a understanding about this and we Think in the same way, yesterday i was going to explain how, where and why 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300 trails can have only two state present and sometimes a mix with Three different states.
I was going to discuss Entering Points and Exit Points, when to jump in and ride the wave and when to fold it and quit.
Was going to talk about trending the market with 1.35% house edge using even Money bets with La Partage rule. Observe the market Changes and explore them.
Was also going to talk about how to know when you are ahead with better and more simple teting then The Van Kellen test where i find ''Conquer the Casinos'' by Philip Koetsch have more advante to hes approch where you define what it means being ahead.

All this flat betting with different options for algorhitms to explore the market or states that unfold.
It exist different options for clustering states into odds and probability that are other then 1 in 2 or 50/50 odds where you can compare the clustering levels using the same probability as a Dice has.

But you get so many members to join the discussion with negativity and who no has my respect.
I can use my fingers to name does who i respect and would get into discussion with.

So i avoid typing and discusse such things.

Cheers

But Sputnik, if they deter you from sharing your thoughts and research and create productive discussion, then THEY win!
I'm absolutely sure there are more than enough members and lurkers here who can appreciate your posts.
Keep up the good work Sputnik, Bayes, Reyth, scep and everyone else.
 

Reyth

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2016, 01:37:09 AM »
I created a softwares that charted based on certain criteria that I cannot disclose here:





I was able to take advantage of chop (generating a profit with each repetition) by using the 6 point betting progression.

The problem is finding a reliable set of criteria that can be observed in the chart patterns.  I failed to do this and found that there was no reliable way to predict trend reversals against the pattern and that many of them could stack in a row.

A reliable criteria would limit the stacking of successive losses in a way that was greater than pure random (an edge).

A simple criteria that we might use for charting could be:

Red: +1
Black: -1
Zero: No Change

If black was dominant, the chart would show below zero and vice versa if red was dominant.

Criteria can be quite complex and the +1/-1 method can be used to indicate success or failure in predicting the upcoming result.  Successive failures can be just as significant as successive wins.

In roulette, I think trends are simply events that repeat/continue over sets of 37 spins and thus can be exploited.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 02:21:23 AM by Reyth »
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2016, 02:42:48 AM »
Reyth....
The charts you post above make me wonder if the idea of moving averages could be utilized. Noting where the bankroll balance line crosses the moving average line in an upward or downward direction could give some interesting results. Moving averages could be constructed for specific time intervals such as the last 10, 30, 50 or more spins.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2016, 05:53:36 AM »
Wow very interesting.  I never got much into studying stochastics, only the technicals.  Because of this I don't have any "natural instinct" for moving averages but conceptually I can see that it is an intriguing element.
 

tickseeker

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2016, 02:28:06 PM »
I have a very extensive and long futures markets experience in the field of technical analysis (based on price action) and lately I have been doing a lot of studies in roulette numbers too. The financial markets and roulette have a lot of common but still  I have not found anything special (where roulette works better) when comparing these two "worlds" together in technical analysis. The same problems and advanteges exists. For example (there is many) those basic moving averages (MA, EMA, WMA etc.) suffer the same lagging problem. To use MA succesfully in finanacial markets it requires more than pure simple signals from the indicator. Everybody is trying to find the Setup but trading is all about execution (you in the mirror) and the position/money management. But I see the commissions and specially the slippage (the lack of it in roulette) really can be the edge for roulette scalpers.

What comes to roulette it is a real random environment (as we all very well know) and there is those random Clusters which I see can be "traded" when the system is proberly developed.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2016, 04:18:04 PM »
The features of a random sequence are fixed. The results of the stockmarket are influenced by many unpredictable occurences.Both have in common that predictions or expectations are based on occurences of the past.The features of short and long run are different. Daytrading is short run.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2016, 04:36:26 PM »
But I see the commissions and specially the slippage (the lack of it in roulette) really can be the edge for roulette scalpers.

Well I have noticed the same thing on slippage which I definitely find an advantage but on the commission, we have the house edge which is an actual reality that must be exceeded with our "trading" activity.

Another advantage is "timelessness" where you can sit and stare at a chart for an hour if you want before making your decision over the very next tick and then you can do the same thing over and over repeatedly.

Quote
What comes to roulette it is a real random environment (as we all very well know) and there is those random Clusters which I see can be "traded" when the system is proberly developed.

This "properly developed" is the true problem we have here...
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 04:38:18 PM by Reyth »
 

tickseeker

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Re: Technical analysis for roulette
« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2016, 04:51:12 PM »
This "properly developed" is the true problem we have here...

Exactly the same in finance. It requires a lot of exprience, knowledge and ability to control yourself :D

Overall the biggest problem is the people do not understand how much time and exercise it takes to trade markets well and consistently. It is a good analogy to think trading as any profession which requires special skills for example  surgeon: Everybody can take a knife and do the surgery but... there is plenty of analyses available in the net but some average estimations I remember said is something at least 10 000 hrs (6+ years) needed.

In my case it took something around 8 years to fully find myself.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 05:09:16 PM by tickseeker »
 
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