“Yes, but I am willing to forgo them to lessen the bankroll needed when I do bet . And both my simulations and my actual betting confirm that “
Different strokes for different folks.
scep, you're assuming that there is a benefit to virtual losses and that this is that it lessens the bankroll needed. Why should it lessen the bankroll?
palestis is saying that it is safer to wait for a streak of 7 because "you hardly ever see streaks of 10". But having found a streak of 7, it is then no less likely that it will turn into a streak of 10 than a single will turn into a streak of 4. This is because, as I keeping saying (and people keep ignoring), the relationship between streaks of successive lengths is the same. And note that these very statistics are what Reyth keeps reminding us "naysayers" of!
So starting from bet 1, it is not more likely that you will encounter a streak of 3 against you than if you wait for a streak of 7. The chance of a streak of 3 against you has a fixed probability of 1/8, and that's it. The fallacy lies in thinking that because you often see streaks of 3 but hardly ever streaks of 10, then it must be better to start from a streak of 7. If you actually count up your wins and losses you'll see that there is no advantage.
What you are actually trying to say is that by waiting for a 5,6,7 streak of virtual losses, I am setting myself up for a new record to be broken, or if that's too extreme to happen, I am setting myself up for an UNUSUAL increase in the number of LONG STREAKS never seen before in a table of daily results. Long enough to exceed the range of bets that I am going to place, to ensure that I will lose.
First of all I am not going to run into a new record because my range of bets is limited.
Secondly I am not going to change the landscape that we see every day, and out of the blue frequent extra long streaks will start to emerge, something that we never saw before.
What you see in the picture is a typical landscape that you are very likely to see every day, every time, in every roulette in this world.
How can my action of waiting for several virtual losses change this landscape and start producing pictures that we have never seen before? Not once not twice, but quite often. I doubt that this picture can ever change, except on a very few rare occasions.
I don't compare the results of betting only after so many virtual losses to constant betting from the beginning. Because it's not a fair comparison.
Constant betting from the beginning has a certain ending. Loss at least to the HE.
If I was playing the session depicted below, and run into the 6 or 7 numbers streak, and lucky to guess the right color I would be winning $10,10,10,10,10, 10, 10. However if I picked the wrong color, I would be losing 10,20,40,80,160, 320,640. In a on line casino with 10 cents minimum, it would be no problem at all. But in that case you are playing for hobby. Not to make money.
But in a real casino environment most players would not be able to handle this progression, either because they already lost their B/R in the first few steps, or for fear of losing too much for a benefit that's too small. Realistically, such playing style is impossible.
Playing the way I suggest even after 5 virtual losses and only 3 bets after that, would've resulted in winning all across the board. How can you ignore such a powerful fact?
I would definitely agree with you, if you showed me, a picture of daily results where streaks of 10+ numbers were just as many as streaks of 5 numbers. But I doubt if such picture exists. Or if you find one, chances are you won't see it again any time soon. And every time this question arises, theory proponents points us to simulations of several million spins, where it shows that new limits may exist and that old records can be broken.
What it doesn't point out is the hundreds of thousands of cases where results resemble what you see in the picture below.