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21
Questions and Answers / Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Last post by mr j on Yesterday at 01:55:40 PM »

  "I think Mr J named this thread as he did as a kind of mockery aimed at those who believe that it *does* have merit" >> Its a gift I have.
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Bankroll Management
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Yesterday at 12:45:17 PM »
Nice charts, Bro. 
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Roulette Strategy Discussion / Re: Bankroll Management
« Last post by McCoy on Yesterday at 12:20:28 PM »
Why, in the first chart, do the up-down movements of the two betting methods not match?  Is the horizontal axis the same?

Yes there is only one horizontal axis. The movements of the 2 plots do track each other up to a point but it's easier to see this if you take logarithms of the banks. This compresses the numbers and is a useful technique when the scales or ranges are very different.



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Awesome work btw!  I think you are on the right track with groups of hot numbers!  1500 spins, impressive! :D

Thanks but I'm only showing the results of the different staking plans here. I remain convinced that hot numbers are the way to go but as stated above, I chose the numbers for these plots only after knowing the results.

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I am very interested to see a losing graph using both methods!  The key to a losing graph will be successive drawdowns.

I used the same set of spins but chose the numbers which result in losses, numbers 19-22.



Here is the result of betting on those numbers using the same staking plans. In this case because they are losing numbers I increased both banks to 4000 u which was the worst drawdown.



In this case the 2% plan comes off worst. This is consistent with the theory which says that in games with a negative expectation it's better to be 'bold' than 'timid'. No staking plan can save you in this case but perhaps chasing losses can keep you afloat for longer.
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Questions and Answers / Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Last post by McCoy on Yesterday at 11:12:20 AM »
It really is dependent on the reasons a person disengages from the wheel; I think there is a such a thing as "blind hit and run" which is uninformed and "informed hit and run" which is statistically motivated.

Yes and it's only the 'uninformed' hit and run which I deny has any merit. If you are dealing with just an endless stream of 'random' outcomes then the points at which you stop or start can't have any effect on your profits. I think Mr J named this thread as he did as a kind of mockery aimed at those who believe that it *does* have merit.

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I previously explained WHY I moved tables. TO LOCK IN A PROFIT   !
I have also said we are at the mercy of randomness  at every spin. So just where is the contradiction?

From what Reyth has just written would you say that your hit and run is 'informed' or 'uninformed'? If it's informed then you are not at the mercy of randomness, but if it's uninformed then you *are* at the mercy of randomness in which case the point at which you quit is arbitrary and doesn't help to 'lock in a profit'. It would only lock in a profit if when you quit the outcomes were at the peak of a wave so playing on would result in giving back your gains. However if you knew when these peaks occurred then you are not at the mercy of randomness are you?
Hence the contradiction. I don't know how to explain it any more clearly so I hope you 'get it'.
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Casino Lounge / Re: Casinos are my bitches!
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Yesterday at 10:57:34 AM »
Yes, Scepticus,  your tread obviously generated more views,  people do not wanna work to achieve anything , crowd wants food,  drink and circus. And at least one of these your tread  satisfies in full. 
    It's OK,  if you find some of my posts rediculos,  just keep in mind that sometimes not info itself , but quolity of reader determines understanding. 
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System selling Scammers like Charles mentioned in another thread are a dime a dozen. But sometimes it is not always a question about a scam. It can easily be a question of mathematical ignorance.

Many years ago I used to know this kind looking, rich and extremely intelligent professor in economics in Sweden. He had won a certain fame for having authored a book about implementing Point and Figure Charting in the Stock and Options Market. That gave him a good social network in the higher echelons of the Scandinavian Market.

The thing though was that when this guy went into pension, he started spending a lot of time with his hobby which was roulette. He developed many Land-based systems, but all of them dealt with street betting with various degrees of point and figure implementation on the bet signal.

He made many travels down to Bad Homurg, Wiesbaden, Travemunde, Baden Baden and some other German Casinos and soon enough became a well-known visitor and esteemed client to the VIP Managers of said Casinos.

The thing though was that he also got to know new players and started to sell his various systems at a really juicy price of 50,000€ a pop. All backed up by his past title and book of course as evidence of his seriousness. Once when I sat at his mansion and tasted one of his homemade Ceasar salads, a "client" arrived and joined us. It was quite a wealthy man and owner of several large luxury restaurants in Stockholm.

Sitting there munching my salad I saw this well-dressed fine mannered professor pitching this guy on his latest system at a price close to 75,000€. The guy loved roulette and listened like a child listening to his daddy telling a story before sleep. After an hour they rose up and the professor told me its time to pay a visit to the Casino Cosmopol (a luxurious one in Central Stockholm) and show the client how the system was implemented.

The thing was though that I had paid him a visit to explain to him that his system could not work on a sufficiently long set of bets due to variance problems.

As his client went out to the large mansion parking, the professor turned around and answered: "Very true, but the client can never prove that mathematically in order to get his money back."

I asked him why he did this. He certainly didn´t need the money as he was very well situated. He responded that Roulette was his passion and selling systems just was a way to verify his own inventiveness in this area, not to forget he finished as we walked to our cars, he had discovered the pricier he made the systems he sold to his rich clients the more eager they were to buy them considering he was a well-respected name in the finance industry.

It taught me a lesson that in this business sometimes money is not the only reason certain people choose to sell "systems", it is also a way to verify your own assumed ingenuity.

Consequently one could say that this grey area business is not always about shameless greed in some of its peddlers, but also incurable intellectual vanity in others.

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Casino Lounge / Re: A message for thanks to Charles win3million
« Last post by jerome26b on Yesterday at 09:08:23 AM »
And anyway no need to be a genious to figure out all this CWB of Charles is bulls***. I had a look in his blog by curiosity i admit the guy was quite good but some sections are such a laugh and alert directly like "how to be a millionaire" and so on. For the other things sorry there's no automatic bet that will work playing every spin, if you play every spin flat bet using a special trigger like he said you will never finish in + in long term except if you can predict the future and have some telekinesis talent; it's the same as guessing any outcome every spin you can be lucky but at the end the house edge will kill you. In fact it's the most terrible play you can do as a strategic player. Time to go to reality... Some good methods exist but the w3m is crap and some people continue to try to abuse people with that... And if you think about it the supposed Charles win in total more than 50$ millions he said, do you really think if it was true he would take the risk to abuse people in internet to get maybe let's say 1 million more and take the risk to go in jail ? Just comon sense... same things happening with very beautiful ladies contacting you on instagram or other media network, trying to abuse you and at the end they will abuse you and try to get some money. these people know how to use the weakness of people. Be careful guys and always think a bit before getting trap by these people.

jerome.
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Casino Lounge / Re: Casinos are my bitches!
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 12:55:36 AM »

I only resumed answering your posts , Mr. P . because kav and Reyth wanted an end to bickering but I am not going to answer any more of your posts because I think some of them are ridiculous . So please refrain from asking me for a reply.
Jealous of those I regard as fakers ?  In your moonlit dreams  !
Do bear in mind though that your ASSUMPTIONS may not be  fact ! Your trust may be misplaced.
I also think that my thread has generated more views than any of yours . THAT may be a fact .
Anyway bye bye  sleep tight and don't let the bugs bite  !
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Casino Lounge / Re: Casinos are my bitches!
« Last post by MrPerfect. on September 24, 2017, 11:07:43 PM »
Scepticus,  stop to be jealous to other people life. Real is a Pro because he play roulette for a living, not because someone clame it. He speaks simple ( for him) things and they work. I didn't invented anything new in roulette, whatever l know about this game comes from him and Bebedictus.  I just took whatever they say and wright and verified on practice.  That's why l have no doubts that him or Bebedictus are Pro players. After all, if someone speaking what makes sense and can be verified by practice,  l assume that he himself can do it also.
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Casino Lounge / Re: Casinos are my bitches!
« Last post by Reyth on September 24, 2017, 10:30:55 PM »
(blush)
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