Author Topic: Positive Progression Analysis  (Read 7144 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4181
• Thanked: 1442 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #30 on: October 04, 2017, 09:35:09 PM »
Do you think its possible to win with positive progressions on a biased wheel?

MrPerfect.

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1560
• Thanked: 883 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2017, 09:56:09 PM »
Progression is just a tool. It has to be manually balanced for every individual case.
Do you know wich way to bet is most profitable? I was surprised when l discovered it... well l didn't discover it, Bebedictus told me.
It's a flat bet. Just... to use its full potential , need to bet on table maximum.  Not fun, right???
Progressions are used for 2 things:
.............1. Arrive to table maximum
..............2. Have some leverage extra, if you are let's say comfortable with 1/2 table maximum.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4181
• Thanked: 1442 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2017, 10:06:01 PM »
So you don't have to worry about variance then?  Just flat bet the maximum.  And so you are only betting one number?  Because 2 numbers will exhaust profit in just 18 spins, right?
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 10:11:06 PM by Reyth »

MrPerfect.

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1560
• Thanked: 883 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #33 on: October 04, 2017, 10:34:18 PM »
Really wird logic...
Trick is to bet numbers with positive expectation. More of these you bet- less variance you gonna have.
Point of my previous post was that progression is not solution to all problems. However, specific progression ( designed for specific situation) can be used to bet optimally. It's just a tool.
Try put a neil on piece of wood using hammer and your legs only. You will understand that not only tool, but proficiency of its user matters as well.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Scarface

• New
• Posts: 123
• Thanked: 101 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #34 on: October 04, 2017, 10:42:46 PM »
How about combining a negative progression with a positive progression?  A negative progressions is usually really bad...but when hits come after a long stretch, they seem to come in clusters.

I've been doing a little testing on this, combining a parachute progression with a parlay positive progression.  I'll post more about this later after more testing

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

MrPerfect.

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1560
• Thanked: 883 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #35 on: October 04, 2017, 11:36:43 PM »
This would be interesting,  if you know for how many consequtive spins your bet can miss.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Scarface

• New
• Posts: 123
• Thanked: 101 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2017, 01:25:25 AM »
This would be interesting,  if you know for how many consequtive spins your bet can miss.

If you are only betting 1 unit and parlay the next bet, you can actually get to 1332 spins with only a single win to break even, worse case.  (37×36).

But I'd prefer not to get down to a single number.  Rather keep it at least 4 numbers for the lowest.

The General idea is to start off with at least half the numbers, and gradually reduce numbers, then parlay after a hit
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 01:27:50 AM by Scarface »

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4181
• Thanked: 1442 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #37 on: October 05, 2017, 01:49:02 AM »
Wow that sound like the Talos method.  It sounds impossible to lose.  Having been in a similar position many more times than I'd like to remember, are  you sure your calculations are correct?
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 04:33:31 AM by Reyth »

MrPerfect.

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1560
• Thanked: 883 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #38 on: October 05, 2017, 09:43:50 AM »
Omg!!! 1300 spins with 1 hit? It's like 4 days without hit and one hit at the end..   I would probably die just during betting process from the stress. If l wouldn't die from betting ( highly improbable ), l would die from winning!!!
Many people die when 2WW finish,  they were so happy, that heart didn't overcome it.
Such ideas of betting should have a label of worning for associated health danger for its user ( like siggaretes).
I wish there would be a " dislike" option.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Scarface

• New
• Posts: 123
• Thanked: 101 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #39 on: October 05, 2017, 12:23:14 PM »
Actually it's 2 hits in a row.  If at anytime you get 2 hits in a row it will win.  I used a single number as an example.  Bet 1 unit on a single and win 36....parlay your winnings plus 1 unit, win 1332 units.  So, if you get 2 hits in a row in 1332 spins you win....just betting 1 unit and parlaying

But, like you guys pointed out, it's not practical to play that many spins in a single session.  I was just showing how powerful the parlay bet can be.

It's more practical to start off with more numbers.  Let's say we're betting 1 unit on high/low, parlaying winnings.  2 consecutive hits wins 6 units.  So as long as you can get 2 consecutive hits in 6 spins, you're in the money.

If you don't get the 2 hits in the first 6 spins, bet 1 unit on fewer numbers...maybe the dozen.  2 consecutive hits on a dozen pays out 12 units.

2 hits on a double street pays out 42 units

2 hits on a quad pays 90 units

2 hits on a street pays 156.  Etc, etc

This is all based on 1 unit bets.  We could say if we don't get a win on high/low in the first 6 spins, raise the base wager to 2 units...now, instead of betting dozens, stay on high/low.  This would allow us to play high/low for 3 more spins...so all we need is 2 consecutive hits in 11 spins on an even chance bet.

Spin. W/L.  Total win/loss
Bet 1 unit on high
1 L -1
2 L -2
3 L -3
4 W -4
5 L -5
6 L -6
Bet 1 unit on dozen
7 L -7
8 W -8
9 W +3
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 12:28:32 PM by Scarface »

Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4181
• Thanked: 1442 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #40 on: October 05, 2017, 03:40:21 PM »
Ok, I am confused because unlike Mr. Perfect I AM willing to spin 1300 times!  Does your progression actually allow for 1300 betting events?

The Talos method allowed for profit within 6 wins, where he used a divisor.

Sputnik

• Veteran Member
• Posts: 605
• Thanked: 527 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #41 on: October 05, 2017, 04:58:42 PM »

I don't understand this concept - assume i aim to win two in a row and start with the even money and after that - if losing - parachute for smaller locations with higher payment

Now if i would use FTL then i would need three hits for one location to repeat - that is pretty rare for even money, dozen, line, corner, street, split, single

And if i would not use FTL as selection method then i would chasing sleepers and would be pretty rare getting a hit twice in a row after a sleeping location

My golden egg or recommendation is to do it my way
Apply the binomial probability distribution for each location to equal a even money bet and then aim to win twice

Then it become more a feeling for the day what winning location you want to use

Cheers

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Scarface

• New
• Posts: 123
• Thanked: 101 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #42 on: October 05, 2017, 06:35:06 PM »
Reyth, if you have 2 consecutives hits anywhere in 1332 spins you win...and this is only betting 1 unit and parlay the next bet.

For example, bet 1 unit on Red and you win 2 units...now bet your winnings + 1 unit.  If you hit again, you win 6 units.

Here is a basic parachute starting from even bets down to single number (betting only 1 unit and parlay winnings)

Even bets -bet up to 6 spins
Dozen bet - bet up to 6 spins
Double street -bet up to 30 spins
Quad - bet up to 48 spins
Street - bet up to 66 spins
Split - bet up to 186 spins
Single - bet up to 990 spins

Total spins:  1332

Reyth

• Global Moderator
• Hero Member
• Posts: 4181
• Thanked: 1442 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #43 on: October 05, 2017, 08:51:11 PM »
Ok, so its 996 spins on a single number to win TWICE IN A ROW; that is very close to grail if its based on an average but it is most likely much worse than that.

I do know that an EC will be expected to miss up to 55 times in a row before hitting twice (once in a lifetime event and I can print out a distribution chart showing the odds for each level of miss 54, 53 ... 43...1 etc.).

Obviously with each movement inward on the felt the number of misses in a row grows BUT we also need to consider the cumulative effect of each spin, right?

Regardless of the fact that we would be chasing sleepers, if we can get a large enough CUMULATIVE number of spins, WE WILL WIN.

Like Talos, we must NOT bet the colors or even/odd -- we MUST bet HIGH/LOW because it is the only way to gain the cumulative spins.

Btw, whats the total bankroll after the 1332 spins?
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 08:55:03 PM by Reyth »

Scarface

• New
• Posts: 123
• Thanked: 101 times
Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2017, 09:42:33 PM »
The bankroll needed for 1332 spins is the same...1332 units.  The parlay allows for a quick recovery.

If you get no hits till spin 1330, you'd be -1330.  But at spin 1331 you hit a single you win 36 units...parlay the winnings plus 1 unit on the next bet will net 1332 units (36×37).

Interesting data on the even bets.  So, 55 spins is the worse you've seen before 2 even bets hit back to back.  I'll see if I can come up with a parlay progression for this as soon as I get time

The following users thanked this post: Reyth