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kav

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Positive Progression Analysis
« on: June 15, 2010, 04:11:32 PM »
Hello,

In roulette, progressions are a type of "micro money management".
Money management is about how to manage your bankroll.
Progressions are about how to manage your bets.

There are many types of progressions. Every type has its own pros and cons. One very interesting type of progression are the "positive" progressions. In positive progressions we increase the bet when the previous outcomes are favorable and we bet less when the previous outcomes are unfavorable. In the following series of posts I will try to describe and analyze 4 very interesting positive progressions:

  • Anti-Martingale
  • Guetting
  • Reverse Labouchere
  • Neilas

Each one has it's own advantages and disadvantages. This is not about the progressions them selves, it's about learning to judge the pros and cons of betting schemes. Many of the things that will be said may seem obvious, but all too often the solutions to big problem are before our eyes and we ignore them. Do not underestimate the obvious.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2010, 12:56:47 AM by kav »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2017, 05:51:49 AM »
Neilas??  Did you make this up? lol.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2017, 01:10:31 PM »


 I find it strange that you don't mention Regression Up & Pull ...

 Cheers
 
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kav

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2017, 02:26:54 PM »
Hello Sputnik,
Can you tell us a bit more about Regression Up & Pull?
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2017, 03:25:34 PM »


Well this is the original for even money - but i apply it to all my selections ...
For example you staking two units and if you win you can never lose it all back because you use regression.
So for the next bet you lower you bet size to one unit.
If you lose you still in profit with one unit and if you win you have plus three units.

So from the moment you start to strike you turnaround and use Up & Pull where you push for more with out risking your own money - you can never lose it all back and stay a winner no matter what happen next.

The staking can look like this 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 and so on ... or 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Guetting versus Regression Up & Pull
You only need to win once to operate with casino money using Regression Up & Pull
You need to win three times in a row using guetting to operate with casino money
BIG DIFFERNECE

Now lets look 32 number bet using Romanosky
With the original you need to staking 8 units to gain 1 could be 80 Euro
And you need to win 9 attempts to be ahead and operate with casino money flat betting.
Using Regression Up & Pull you only need to win 4 attempts to operate with casino money and after that use positiv progression Up & Pull to push for more winnings

Here is one example staking three attempts on the even money 5 10 20
If you win +5 units you lower the next sequence to 3 6 12
And if you win again you operate with casino money
That is a total of 2 attempts from where you can start to use positiv progression Up & Pull
Compare that with standard Marty 124 where you need to win 7 times to be ahead

When using staking as progression with Regression Up & Pull you can build you progression with winnings when using Up & Pull or positiv progression to gain more winnings.

For example

5 10 20
3 6 12
1 2 4
1 1 3
1 2 3
1 2 4
2 2 6
2 4 6
2 4 8

Cheers
« Last Edit: September 29, 2017, 03:28:44 PM by Sputnik »
 
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Badger

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2017, 12:39:53 PM »
I would like to hear more about your positive progressions as well KAV.
 
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kav

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2017, 10:00:16 PM »
Great post Sputnik.

Right now, I don't have the time to explain the "what", "how" and "why". The thing is that a few years ago we did some serious studying and progression design and tests with a friend and we concluded that the best positive progression overall is the one shown here.

Theoretically all progressions have the same expected value. So like there is no "better" bet, there is also no "better" progression per se (by itself). But we found out that in our way of playing the Neilas produced the more consistent results. The important thing in a positive progression is to maximize your wins when on a favorable streak, yet at the same time to preserve some gains - so when the loss comes you still are in profit. It is a balancing act. As with so many things in roulette there is always a trade off.

This is the main comparison chart. If you study this chart you can understand a lot about the logic, the behavior and pros and cons of each progression. We have compared and analyzed various positive progressions (more than is shown here) before we concluded that Neilas was the more suitable for us.

« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 02:23:06 AM by kav »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2017, 10:56:16 AM »
I will program these betting schemes in Excel for 200 spins.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2017, 12:05:16 PM »

Here the result of flat betting two units. Very rare a positive result. After 250 spins a permanent loss.

 
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kav

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2017, 12:13:03 PM »
dobbel,

You have to define a win target after which the betting restarts with 2 units.
You are the one who says that a strategy is not only the progression but also the bet selection. What bet selection did you choose?
I already said that NO progression can offer an advantage by itself - only in conjunction with the proper bet selection and as part of a complete strategy.
Do you have a better positive progression to propose?
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2017, 01:15:30 PM »

How do you define the wintarget. Without a manual of the chart, it is impossible to understand how to use this tool.
I found a manual for the Guetting method. I thing it is not the same as your chart.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2017, 01:18:50 PM »
It appears that Kav's chart perfectly replicates the Guetting?  Reminds me of the Carsch Star actually, the difference being its a positive progression.  So I guess the Carsch Star is like the "Anti-Guetting"? :D
 

kav

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2017, 01:48:52 PM »
The Guetting presented on your image is a bit different that the one I know. The Guetting I know goes like this:
1
1,5
2
3
4
6
8
which is analogous to this (for avoiding non integer numbers):
2
3
4
6
8
12
16

How exactly the Guetting is played and how one defines wintarget, and how to chhose your bet is a whole discussion.
I just posted one chart of our analysis to help people see how different positive progressions behave and develop.

What would be interesting is to define some rules yourself and then run all the positive progressions.
Then we can see the difference in bankroll fluctuation of the various positive progressions. That would be useful so we can see the differences. If you think you know a better progression you can test that too so we can compare results.

As I said all progressions, by themselves, produce no advantage, though they are not the same, each progression has different behaviors and different strengths and weaknesses. It is very interesting to compare them.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2017, 09:36:10 PM »

The betting scheme is difficult to program. For this example I did the betting manual.

Guetting progression.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2017, 10:28:54 PM »
Wow, awesome job!  Can you do the Neilas with the same spins?