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Author Topic: Trial and error, Parlay and convexity  (Read 101 times)

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kav

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Trial and error, Parlay and convexity
« on: November 11, 2017, 03:08:37 AM »

Very interesting lecture by Taleb.
It seems to me that the Parlay method is a convex method. If I translate what he says to roulette, he prefers many small losses and a exponential win than many stable wins and great loss.

Also the part about trial and error and how the world goes forward, fits very well with how I created the Kavouras system. I didn't sit down one day and devised a great system. Experience, observation and continuous fine-tuning just started to produce good results. And THEN I called it a system. at first it was just me trying and fine tuning ideas, based on observation (and personal preference).
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 03:19:42 AM by kav »


 
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kav

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Re: Trial and error, Parlay and convexity
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2017, 03:42:02 AM »
More great stuff from Taleb here: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html
 

Reyth

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Re: Trial and error, Parlay and convexity
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2017, 05:16:32 AM »
So more like a small amount of straight up numbers instead of an EC?
 
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kav

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Re: Trial and error, Parlay and convexity
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2017, 05:23:17 PM »
good point