### Author Topic: How long can a dozen go missing?  (Read 388 times)

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#### Scarface

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##### How long can a dozen go missing?
« on: November 09, 2017, 08:41:31 PM »
How long can a dozen numbers go missing?  I ran a gap test on 2 million spins that tested all 3 dozens and all 3 columns.  In 2 million spins the worse case out of all 6 results ranged from 31 to 41....41 spins being the worse of the worse.

But what I'm interested in, is what is the worse case for any dozen?  Could be any 12 numbers on the board.  Not just ones that are grouped together.

Would the results be similar?

Reason I'm asking is based on the Law of the Third.  Basically, in 36 spins, you will see about 24 numbers show up.  In other words, a dozen numbers will not show.  So, if you played the dozen "no shows" after 36 spins how much longer can this go on?

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2017, 09:27:32 PM »
Any 12 numbers is the same as a pre-made dozen group HOWEVER:

If we constantly seek the group of 12 numbers that is "on the statistical edge", we will effectively turn the statistics on their head and will find that roulette has an infinite capacity to produce losing streaks.

We need to let our selection go through its cycles if we wish to receive the promised statistics.  The solution is to choose a particular selection and stick with it until it does what we want.

I personally stick with the hottest pre-made group at any one time which I believe is still safe because I am following the long-term trend.  I play RNG exclusively and so that alleviates alot of other potential concerns. :-)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2017, 09:50:22 PM by Reyth »

#### Scarface

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2017, 12:47:08 AM »
Yes, I have a feeling that the cold dozen can go alot further than the gap test show.  If 41 spins was worse case in a 2 million spin trial, it sounds great to start first bet at spin 37....but, I feel like losses would go way past 41 spins

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2017, 12:59:04 AM »
My tests also agree 100% with your gap test.  The reason the gap test doesn't show the WORST that roulette has to offer (infinite losses) is because the odds of it are far, far greater than 2M:1.  What brings those odds home for dinner to us, is when we chase the 12 coldest numbers continuously throughout the felt.

The good news is that we can still get great odds that far exceed the house edge.  The problem is that the house edge is no great shakes and we are limited by expenses/table limits but great odds will go a very long way in helping us beat roulette.

Its not the GREATEST gap we have to worry about (that is a once in a lifetime event), its what to do with the gaps we receive from the odds we choose to play at.

EDIT: I have a bad habit of interchangeably using the terms "odds" and "probability" and it must drive some people crazy.  Sorry.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 11:59:21 PM by Reyth »

#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2017, 09:25:29 AM »
The random nummer row is not dependable on the table layout. The occurrence of any 12 numbers has the same feature as a dozen or a column. The 12 sleeping numbers of the 2/3 rule is such particular dozen. The danger is that that dozen also consist also 4 sleeping or cold numbers.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2017, 10:11:44 AM »
That's why bet selection is important.  Someone thinking to play with math, need to spend time on proper bet selection.  And throw at least some physics in the equation to justify this bet selection with the stats means.
If everything done properly. ... it's money

#### palestis

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2017, 05:00:38 PM »
A classic dozen (1,2,3), I have found missing for 31 spins, only once in a number of years of observing and writing live spins.
And 3-4 times missing for 29 spins.
However,  by following 12 numbers ( any numbers), that don't show up during a new recording have gone missing 60 spins. Though that's rare, 12 any numbers can go missing 40 spins somewhat frequently. (if you don't specify those 12 numbers in advance).
That's not the case with the standard dozen, even if you follow the missing dozen.
The reason being is that there are 2 specific restrictions when it comes to following a missing dozen.
1. Wheel restriction: 12 numbers always occupying the same spot of the wheel.
2. Layout restriction: 12 numbers always occupying the same real estate on the layout.
That is y a dozen or column is excluded from the law of the thirds.

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#### Scarface

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2017, 09:55:01 PM »
Palestis, how far can a cold dozen go, worse case?  In 36 spins there is nearly always 12 numbers unhit.  If 40 to 45 is worse case then progression is very manageable if we start first bet on spin 37.

Edit...never mind, just seen you posted 60 spins
« Last Edit: November 10, 2017, 09:57:13 PM by Scarface »

#### palestis

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##### Re: How long can a dozen go missing?
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2017, 10:31:57 PM »
Like I said about  cold dozen (1,2,3) I have seen one  missing for 31 spins in the course of several years of observation. That is an actual dozen and  not any 12 numbers.
If you wait to see an actual dozen missing 37 spins before you bet on it, I am afraid you will be 90 years old before you ever see it. But if I see  an actual dozen missing 25 spins, I will bet my lifesavings on it. But even 25 spins might take a long time to see it.
As far as a dozen made up from 12 cold numbers betting after 37 spins is a good starting point.
But be prepared to see it going to 50 and sometimes more if it is your unlucky day.  That means a long progression for 12 numbers.