Author Topic: Variance Defined!?  (Read 987 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2017, 08:53:03 AM »
 McCoy, in reality, variance is not a mitphological beast. As Reyth already written, it's difference between average expectation and what has happened in reality. Obviously as our bet selection we want numbers that show positive variance. There is stats indicator used in industry..  it's variance square root.  It's called std and can be good indicator of how likely situation happen by itself ( together with chi- square and chance of randomness). It's all used , but it's obvious. 
    What really represent interest for a player is ups and downs of bank growth curve betting on these numbers. It should go up and be as smoothly as it can ( direct line would be super).
    Even system player can collect data to choose numbers wisely. After that , system ( strategy ) can be created to maximise take per hour and minimise drowdowns.  This is Al about it, rest is just refining of betting model.
 
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Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2017, 05:53:43 PM »
Quote
This is hardly a show-stopper and all speculative activities offered by 'the house' whatever it may be will require that a tax is paid. That's the price you pay for playing the 'game' in the first place. These people are running businesses not charities.


A "tax" huh?  Look out folks we've got another online gambling newbie that thinks the house edge is merely a tax.

If you play long enough then the house edge/"tax" will completely devour your bankroll, rendering you a permanent loser and a sucker.



Remember, a fool and his money are soon parted.

Quote

The only stats which matter are the win / loss stats in relation to the payout, and because we have the ability to choose what to bet on then we have the potential to win more than we lose in relation to the payout.

Dream on.  In the random game you can guess guess guess, use triggers or whatever you like to do.  However, it's not going to make a bit of difference.  After you've played enough spins you'll still be a permanent loser.

A biased wheel is completely different, because you're attempting to exploit the wheel, not the random game.

 
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 06:02:06 PM by Real »
 

Rinad

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2017, 06:07:39 PM »


    I can clearly see that people who refuse to exept any other way then their own have been too lazy to do the hard work of testing themselves. OPINIONS ARE MEANINGLESS EVEN IF THEY ARE BASED ON LOGIC AND MATH.
the only thing that matters is the end result. they are some players, and you know who you are, that still think the earth is flat because you have never traveled enough to discover that maybe,just maybe, you might have overlooked something important.
I play and win regurlarly using methods that would be called systems by many.
I dont give a flip about what you are saying because you never help anyone exept to discourage others in their own path.
I always test anything before I place real money behind it, and not just a few tests either.
FACTS THAT ARE SOLID. ONLY THEY MATTER. NOT OPINIONS. EVEN A NEG.PROGRESSION CAN HAVE ITS VALUE.
so there you have it.
have a nice day.
Rinad
 
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Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2017, 06:18:46 PM »
Quote
I can clearly see that people who refuse to exept any other way then their own have been too lazy to do the hard work of testing themselves. OPINIONS ARE MEANINGLESS EVEN IF THEY ARE BASED ON LOGIC AND MATH.
the only thing that matters is the end result. they are some players, and you know who you are, that still think the earth is flat because you have never traveled enough to discover that maybe,just maybe, you might have overlooked something important.

So are you claiming that you're lazy?  And you believe that the earth is flat?  You're entitled to your own opinions but not you're own facts.

Quote
I play and win regurlarly using methods that would be called systems by many.

But over time you're still losing more than you win. 

 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2017, 06:38:34 PM »
Real is correct!  I performed over 37000 betting spins and lost 156% more base monetary units than I won.  This makes me a long-term loser just like he says!!


Embrace unity with our fellow man!

I feel alot better now. :D
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 09:11:55 PM by Reyth »
 
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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2017, 06:47:28 PM »

Reyth,

I read your pm, but I can't respond because Kav has PMs limited to just one per hour.  Why are we limited to just one per hour???

edge/expectancy x confidence level = percentage of bankroll.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2017, 07:07:00 PM »
Thanks broham!

I am new man thanks to you! 

I have embraced my inner loser!


So just to clarify, this is:

"Edge divided by expectancy, times confidence level, equals percentage of bankroll"

Right?

So Expectancy, is this how many chips I expect to expend before getting a hit (statistically measured)?  No, this is circular maths.  So really this is "Edge OVER Expectancy":

EDGE
====
EXPECTATION

So a straight up bet is .027 and with an edge of .01  that would be:

.01
=== = .37
.027

So least confident should yield a .01 result which means the Confidence Level would begin (in this example) with .027 and the question therefore is, what is the grade between each Level of Confidence?  In other words, how far from the first Level of Confidence is the second Level of Confidence?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 09:30:45 PM by Reyth »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2017, 07:14:38 PM »


  that is exactly my point. telling someone is a long term loser without any facts. are you getting into my bank account? my ledger ? I dont lie if I said I win, sure i lose some but overall my method wins. why even making statements like that? I dont get it. what happen? who hurt you ?

never mind, I rather speak to my dog, his ego is dormant.
good bye.
Rinad
 

vitorwally

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2017, 07:24:26 PM »
@Reyth
Thanks for your last .gif it literally made my day.
 
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McCoy

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2017, 08:03:43 AM »
A "tax" huh?  Look out folks we've got another online gambling newbie that thinks the house edge is merely a tax.

If you play long enough then the house edge/"tax" will completely devour your bankroll, rendering you a permanent loser and a sucker.

I'm hardly a gambling newbie. I've been making a living sports betting for the last 16 years. Look out folks we've got another know it all troll with his head up his ass.



Quote
Dream on.  In the random game you can guess guess guess, use triggers or whatever you like to do.  However, it's not going to make a bit of difference.  After you've played enough spins you'll still be a permanent loser.

Wrong again. You can't avoid the house edge but the maths says nothing about whether a selection can overcome it, unless you've tried every possible one? You can just say it's all random but that's just a get-out clause which conveniently lets you off the hook without having to put in any effort to find a way. That's fine but why project your laziness and limitations on others?  Stick to your biased wheels and let those who have a more open mind investigate other possibilities.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2017, 08:58:11 AM »
Variance does not exist. The number random sequence has no start and no finish. A sample is a small event from a infinite sequence. A variance of a small sample is a normal event of the infinite sequence. From this point, variance does not exist.
 

kav

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2017, 11:30:04 PM »
I moved the discussion about the (un)possibility of winning to our famous Systems don't work topic.
Variance is a great topic on its own ;-)
 
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Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2017, 11:50:22 PM »
I moved the discussion about the (un)possibility of winning to our famous Systems don't work topic.
Variance is a great topic on its own ;-)

Dumb move.  I'm out of here.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 11:52:40 PM by Real »