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Author Topic: Variance Defined!?  (Read 1005 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2017, 08:31:51 AM »
 Palestice,  it's a cat and mouse game for any player.. 
    I do not speak about phylosofy on my last post, but very exact math formulas and ratios. 
    If you need something broadly significant and not accountable as " expirience " to define your betting model, chances are it will be not optimal ( profitable) at all.
     What is a difference between AP and system player? If you think about it, it's very simple.. 
  AP knows where is the advantage and can quatify it ( if he is any good), he is forced to create strategies and betting plans on the go to adapt for a particular situation present at the game.
    System player on other hand, do not know how to define or quantify advantage and try to fit his betting approach for different situations present at the game.
    For this very reason there gonna be always luck of understanding between both categories of players...
     Do not get me wrong. Differences between both approaches to the game are tiny, but very segnificant.  It's a chance game, need to see this chance very clearly to profit from it. AP are influenced by emotions as well as system players, but in case of AP it's a boredom. 
Every new playing situation need same study to be performed and doing same thing over and over egain require very strong motivation from AP player to overcome this boredom.
    On other hand, exitement is present also. .. at the form of personal evolution.  AP never stop to learn or develop new things... research and develop is as additive as gambling.
      Palestice,  on your opinion , what could be realistically done to change the way how system players think? Even if it's an addiction to test and create systems, wouldn't it be more beneficial to create systems that bring money also?
« Last Edit: October 30, 2017, 09:34:40 AM by MrPerfect. »
 

Rinad

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2017, 04:18:12 PM »


  Jerome the cluster method I still play it on a regular basis and because it is slow I like to play EC's a other method with it ,which is perfect for me.
I have played many,many sessions with the cluster, close to a thousand probably. I have tried all types of bet selections, and to be fully honest with you, the money management is the best feature.
I like the streets to select my numbers but in some games when the streets dont repeat usualy numbers dont repeat either, so even know I would love to create a "cookie/cutter" type method, you still can use basic judgement when picking numbers and it will work.
I love playing the hotties but I will move after so many hits. I know I have mentioned in the past to always stick to the winners but there is a limit.
what I have found is that it is best to be conservative with this method because more spins mean more chances of not going bust.
if I sit down and get nothing, not even a split within 30 spins I will look at my 600 unit bank and either start over or be moving up in my bets very slowly. when the wins come they come easy, and therefore no need to push your bank down south.
but not to confuse anyone I have played it so much that I do vary from its original because I know that often enough I win with it. remember that you wont lose more then 3 sessions in a row. maybe once in your lifetime.
so you can buildt on that and I have used multi-dimensional banks and that gives you so much more power.
example; I play a 5$ unit 2/1/2,    go back and forth for 2 hours, hit my splits but not a main number, so if I am down 300 units, I call it a day and start a new session later on at a 8$ or 10$  minimum. I know if I hit my main number with 4/2/4 I get 203 units back with one hit, so after that I can go back down to a 5 or 8 $ unit and continue. 
it is all about knowing where you are with your "variances" and how many spins you have been playing.
not hitting a main number for 300 spins is very rare. so your splits can be at a higher unit when you play a higher bank and DO WHAT YOUR MAIN NUMBER WOULD ACCOMPLISH at a lower unit.
it is all about money management, knowing where you stand and the wins when they start flowing they sometime dont stop for hundreds of spins.
hitting a main number within 20 spins is the same as hitting red or black in 1 spins, and so remember that . just like you win 6/9 reds in a row sometime, you hit a single number even much more due to the fact that you can hit it within 20 spins 4 or 5 times, with less risk.
the splits buy you spins, that is the beauty of it, and you can use EC'S to help you pick red or black and play the coresponding number as well.
I can change number when I expect a different color to show up. adds to your advantage, but it works.
playing it for the long run is key. every 25 sessions you should make 1500 to 3500 units. that is what matters.
cheers,
Rinad
 
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Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2017, 06:07:46 PM »
If we have a system that works in normal conditions, it makes sense to progress for recovery.  Very helpful update Rinad! :D
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2017, 09:38:30 PM »
If we got a system that " works" in normal conditions, it make sense to push for a higher win and do not bother about recovery at all.
    Altroth,  if system doesn't work.. then yes,recovery become a priority. 
    There is 100% sure sequre recovery method for these who bothered with such things. It works all the time. 100% efficiency in recovery for any gambling situation . Best of all it comes for free. For these who need it, send me a pm.
 

Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2017, 11:52:37 PM »
If we have a system that works in normal conditions, it makes sense to progress for recovery.  Very helpful update Rinad! :D

No, actually it doesn't make any sense whatsoever.  If the system works, then you're not going to win dirt with an up as you lose progression.  They are terribly inefficient, and mathematically they're pretty silly.  If...if...if...you have a method that works only an up as you win progression is logical.  The progression should be based on a percentage of your bankroll.  If you have to run an up as you lose progression in order to win, then it means your bet selection sucks.
 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2017, 02:11:37 AM »
You make an excellent point that we need to improve our selection as much as possible, that includes when to bet as much as what to bet. 

Unfortunately we don't have the accuracy of physical bias that you do but that doesn't mean we can't use the Physics of Statistics to our advantage and I must also say that your extremely accurate statistical jab, definitely motivates me to do so.

I have discovered some bets that are far more accurate than the others I use.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 02:16:50 AM by Reyth »
 

Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2017, 04:53:10 AM »
Quote
Unfortunately we don't have the accuracy of physical bias that you do but that doesn't mean we can't use the Physics of Statistics to our advantage and I must also say that your extremely accurate statistical jab, definitely motivates me to do so.

Unless your using statistics to measure the fitness of the wheel, then you're lost in the gambler's fallacy.  I hope that's not the case. 

 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2017, 04:54:44 AM »
RNG has statistics which exist objectively, thank you very much.  You said so yourself.  I can bring up the quote again if you like.
 

Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2017, 05:20:44 AM »
Reyth,

You're not grasping the statistics and the game played on the rng.  The stats basically state that regardless of how you play, the odds of winning will always be short of the payout in the long run.  This is easily proven via a simple math proof.  When I say proof, I'm referring to a proof like you use to do back in geometry for example.  A series of logical steps that can be used to provide proof.

 The only merit stats would have on an rng is if you're trying to decode/hack the way the rng is seeded...which you're probably not doing.

I know you really want to beat an rng game but you're stuck in the box.  Especially if you're trying to do so ONLINE!!!
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 05:30:25 AM by Real »
 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2017, 06:20:27 AM »
YOU ===> If you don't play AP, you cannot win because maths and you are GF

I have heard this enough already, years ago.  The HE is not the cause of our losses and the Physics of Statistics is not the GF (which is only a theory anyway).

Simplistic maths doesn't take into account very many things that are open to a system player but in general:

1) How much to bet
2) Where to bet
3) When to bet

The house edge is extremely puny to a system player that makes those 3 choices correctly.

Statistics can be applied in this game that far, far outweighs 97.3% that simple maths does not even attempt to figure in.

The only reason your simplistic generalization has anything close to the merit of truth is because its difficult to work WITH variance in the random stream.

It takes lots of work, study and discipline -- just like AP does.

 

McCoy

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2017, 08:29:01 AM »
    There is 100% sure sequre recovery method for these who bothered with such things. It works all the time. 100% efficiency in recovery for any gambling situation . Best of all it comes for free. For these who need it, send me a pm.

100% sure cannot be possible. Why not just post it here if you think otherwise then people can check for themselves.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2017, 08:36:48 AM »

The table player uses the outcomes of the past.
Statistic phenomena are the basic of many system.
1 How much to bet.
2 Where to bet
3 When to bet

These three points  belongs to an method or strategy. A system has fixed rules how to play.
Strategies use systems but there is a huge different between e strategy and a system.
On many forums there is confusion of these ideas.

Real in spite of my trial to explain what long run in roulette means, you do not know what long run is
There is not any relation between the behavior of the wheel and the performance of a RNG.
I am convinced that the number sequence of a bias wheel  is also random. I do not discus this statement without a clear proof.
 
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McCoy

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2017, 08:39:07 AM »
The stats basically state that regardless of how you play, the odds of winning will always be short of the payout in the long run.  This is easily proven via a simple math proof. 

The proof says that the payouts are short, nothing more. This is hardly a show-stopper and all speculative activities offered by 'the house' whatever it may be will require that a tax is paid. That's the price you pay for playing the 'game' in the first place. These people are running businesses not charities. What are the stats you are referring to anyway? If they are just stats relating to the percentages of numbers which hit this is irrelevant to the success or otherwise of your selection method, just as it is irrelevant in the case of a biased wheel. The only stats which matter are the win / loss stats in relation to the payout, and because we have the ability to choose what to bet on then we have the potential to win more than we lose in relation to the payout.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 08:41:33 AM by McCoy »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2017, 10:37:49 AM »
OK,  McCoy,  you convinced me. I'll post super recovery formula that works 100% everytime when used. Here it goes:
   Not sure - DO NOT BET, bother about recovery - KEEP MONEY TO YOUR POKET,  woried about variance - DO NOT PLACE MONEY ON THE TABLE, got no skill developed- GO TO LEARN BEFORE BETTING, wanna play systems- PLAY THEM ON EXCEL. if you still do not get rules of this magic formula,  go to BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 07:58:05 PM by kav »
 
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McCoy

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2017, 04:14:09 PM »
Ho Ho Ho Mr Perfect. Looks like Christmas has come early.  ::)