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Author Topic: Variance Defined!?  (Read 986 times)

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Reyth

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Variance Defined!?
« on: October 29, 2017, 01:36:13 AM »
hot numbers are variance. ===> positive variance

They create slow numbers. ===> negative variance

If all possible numbers would come up precisely once in every 37 spin sequence, all of our systems would easily win, despite the house edge.

Hot numbers occur DESPITE the probability of other numbers coming up instead.  This is why I cannot quantify why or when they show up; I just know they do!

I wish I knew a way to study these numbers and come up with some kind of behavioral statistics that would help me predict the length of hot streaks...
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 01:41:32 AM by Reyth »


 
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Real

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2017, 01:43:57 AM »
You can't predict variance/randomness.  Random is random. You also can't side step variance.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2017, 03:20:13 AM »
Reyth, there is a "box"... Most in the industry think in its limits ( inside the box)...
     Name of it is " perfect wheel model". People have a chance to win consistently,  when they start to see thru the box and think out if the box...
    Hot number hunting belongs to in the "box thinking".
    Side note:   Sometimes l have impression that everyone look to this game thru some kind of mirror.  All looks for them kind of the same as in reality, but what is right and what is left is kind of distorted. 
 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2017, 04:45:51 AM »
The goal is to play WITH variance, not against it.  It has a certain degree of predictability overall and we can certainly know its effects, AFTER each spin.

Maybe a key is to track individual number histories in a graphical way.  After all, its individual numbers that go hot and cold that create the variance.

Its the Return FrequencyTM that holds the key to the onset of postive variance and its the Exit FrequencyTM (R) that measures the end of streaks!!! :D
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 05:19:51 AM by Reyth »
 
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Rinad

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2017, 12:19:09 PM »


  Reyth you are 100% right. with it,not against it. and it has a time lapse that is very stable in many game. works for me.
Rinad
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2017, 12:28:13 PM »
Yes i agree it's the unbalanced that make it possible to get some runs but you need a way to benefit maximum of it that's the challenge.

Rinad are you still playing your street/splits system with success ?
I'm curious cause i played it for a while with great success then i adapted in some ways to play hot numbers but it crashed suddenly...

Jérôme
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2017, 01:20:12 PM »
 There are 3 main qwestions to be answered in roulette or anything actually. It's what? Where? When?
   What? ... it's just a confirmation that something is going on .. like some numbers came more / less times then expected/ more frequently then expected..  ets.
   When? Answer to this qwestions is result of analysis of properly collected data ( factor analysis ).
  Where? It's where to bet in every studied situation ( proper bet selection).
       There is another qwestion " how to explore optimally? "...  this qwestion's answer is a result of answering properly first 3 qwestions.
     Variance or imbalance in numbers hit frequency is a result of non random nature of the wheels. It's a product, not the process. .. 
     Thinking to how fight variance is same as fighting simptoms of decease instead of adressing decease itself.
 
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kav

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2017, 10:23:12 PM »
What is 'Variance'

Variance measures how different the outcome is from what it "should". Variance is a measurement of the spread between numbers in a data set. The variance measures how far each number in the set is from the mean. Variance is calculated by taking the differences between each number in the set and the mean, squaring the differences (to make them positive) and dividing the sum of the squares by the number of values in the set.

The interesting thing is that variance is everywhere. You can define a variance for Red and Black, but you can also define a variance for "your bets" no matter if you change between colors.  I mean every type of bet, not only those clearly defined by the bets of roulette table layout, even personal strategies, have an average expectation. The actual results usually differ from the exact average expectation thus we have variance.

Let's say that an... advantage player has an 20% advantage. The actual results could be better or worse than the 20% advantage, this is also variance. Variance does not require even odds or a fair game. It is a way to calculate the difference between the expected results and the actual results.
 
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palestis

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2017, 10:32:07 PM »
The problem with variance is that is the short run, you can't expect absolute equilibrium, following a great imbalance. At the same time by following a positive variance there is no guarantee that it will continue. It can stop just as you start betting, and turn the opposite way. It happens all the time
However, the expectation that at least one number, within a series of bets, will try to close a large  gap it's much more realistic. And that 's all you need.  Score one hit only .
 Pursuing more hits, thinking that the imbalance will equalize, is the cause of major roulette playing disasters. 
The same goes when you follow a variance. Be glad to score one hit since a trend will most likely continue for at least one more time within a series of bets.
Trying to score more hits either against or with the variance is a hidden form of greed.
The rule of thumb is 1 hit per imbalance. Then wait for the a new imbalance and do the same.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 10:33:41 PM by palestis »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2017, 11:02:45 PM »
 The " problem" with variance is that you never know when it starts or finish, unless you study wheel properly. Even there you will have variance, but instead of playing blindly, you can set your game the way that you either win a lot or loose nothing.
    Truth is that , if player has problems with variance, he has gambling problems also. Player has no problem with variance as it's included in his betting model.
   Player doesn't go for one hit only either...  too much hussle for little profit.
 

Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2017, 11:26:37 PM »
There is such a thing as long-term variance; it is a feature of every spin sequence (LotT).  So it is possible to take advantage of this variance over time. 

The problem is that even with long-term variance, there is short-term variance within it (all numbers go through hot-cold cycles of varying length).

I like your advice here:

The question is how to play this system in a way that A PLAYER HAS THE ADVANTAGE. The logic is that a crystal clear TREND (in this case 3 rows), can not suddenly disappear out of the sky, as if someone flipped a switch. It could, but it is much more rare to disappear, than to continue for at least ONE MORE TIME. THAT ONE MORE TIME  is all you need to make the damage.

I think that there can be a series of "one more times" in certain situations.

I believe that these phenomena can be studied for statistical patterns (like Harry J says, "the Physics of StatisticsTM") and I have it as a goal to do so very soon!
« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 11:55:15 PM by Reyth »
 

palestis

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2017, 12:12:56 AM »
   Player doesn't go for one hit only either...  too much hussle for little profit.
Yes players don't go for one hit (one at a time I meant however), and that explains y the majority of all regular roulette players lose.
Roulette playing to win is a hassle, and hard work indeed.
Y people work all day to barely make a living, yet when it comes to roulette they want everything and they want it fast and hassle free? Nothing comes easy including winning at roulette.
As far as profit, one hit with $1 is nothing. Bet $50 or $100 and it will add up to something.

 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2017, 01:01:27 AM »
 "Something" is not enough.  I do not know about others, but betting with 50 $ unit ... if l ever decide to do it from very beginning of the session, l will need a very good reason for it.
    In fact,  very good reason is needed to start betting with any amount. 
    Betting itself should serve for purpose to win, if you wanna playing responsible,  then tactics that waste too much time should be avoided.
   And if you bet to win, things like risk/ reward,  bet / bankroll , win / hour...  ets should be considered. 
    In marginal situations " how to bet" plays major role in deciding between win and loss. And a player who is bothered with things like variance will never have any other type of situations.
 

palestis

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2017, 02:13:32 AM »
All these sound good if philosophizing the game of roulette was the aim of the forum. They are broad generalities, that are useless unless you pin them down to a restricted course of action that leads to winning. Scrutinizing for extreme details is a must.
Your ideas are biased because you only see AP as the only solution. You can't mix AP pre conditions with system methods. Systems require different procedures. There is no such thing as waste of time.
Like many things in life "preparation" takes longer than the intended action itself.
Maybe AP  bias ( if you are lucky to find a wheel like this),  has a small built in edge that you can take advantage of it.
In system based methods you have to have the experience to identify an edge . Since it doesn't last long, you only have a narrow choice of bets to exploit that edge. Then it expires.
You have to abandon and wait for the moment when an edge is again present. It's a cat and mouse game.
Betting continuously, it always leads to loss no matter what system you play.

« Last Edit: October 30, 2017, 02:19:53 AM by palestis »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Variance Defined!?
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2017, 03:57:30 AM »
With the proper research, I think all systems can benefit from "spinning through", even those that bet continuously.
 
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