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Author Topic: System DKP  (Read 1258 times)

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Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2017, 04:48:22 PM »
First of all, I want to say that I do not agree with our naysayers here.  It is very easy to create a strategy around this system that can be quite effective, through study of the random rows (hahah we got real rows and they're random! :D).  Betting more numbers is not necessarily any "worse" than betting few numbers.

1) Should we include Anti in your rows so we can see the X's?
2) How long do you wish your betting sequence to be in each of the systems?

We can determine concrete odds to hit based on the system and the total sequence length.

One trigger might be something like:

If Anti hits 3 times in a row, bet the system that has hit the most in all the previous spins

=hottest long term system on record

OR

If Anti hits 3 times in a row, bet the system that has gapped the most but has also hit the most in all the previous spins

=largest recent gapping on the hottest long term system (gapping has priority in the choice over long-term hotness)

OR

If Anti hits 3 times in a row, bet the system that has gapped the most immediately prior to that event

=largest recent gapping

OR

If Anti hits 3 times in a row, bet the system that has hit the most immediately prior to that event

=recently hottest system

Where the Anti is the trigger.

Other triggers could be:

1) When only 1 system hits 3 times in a row
2) When all 3 systems hit x times in a row (once, twice etc)

It all depends on how you want to track your data and how you want to pursue the statistics.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 05:11:05 PM by Reyth »
 

funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2017, 05:07:07 PM »
A anti-hit three times in a row is very rare!! You have two wait some hundred spins. That's my experience. My example was a rare exception. I have seen this not more than two or three times so far.
You can not wait for this as a trigger.
 

Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2017, 05:22:44 PM »
Ok excellent observation.  So there are 5 total Anti numbers right?  And then each system has its own set of unique anti numbers.

But the thing is we can have MULTIPLE triggers.  When we see something rare that comes up, we can act on it to take advantage of the extreme event.

The goal is to stack as many of these rare triggers together as we can, so we don't have to wait as long.

Like, what if we were to track the gapping on 3 hits in all systems on a single spin?

How many numbers are covered by all 3 systems; i.e. that would create the "x x x" pattern?
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 05:25:48 PM by Reyth »
 

funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2017, 05:36:05 PM »
D
0 1 2 3
5 6 8 9
14 15 17 18
19 20 22 23
31 32 34 35

P
4 5 6 7 8 9
14 15 17 18
19 20 22 23
25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 34 35

K
0 1 2 3
8 11
13 14
15 18
17 20
27 30
31 32 33 34 35 36

The anti's over all are well known meanwhile: 10 12 16 21 24  (5 numbers)
The numbers that are covered by all are:
8 14 15 17 18 20 31 32 34 35 (10 numbers). Let's call it anti-anti , haha.
(Hope I have no mistake).

What do you want to do now with this Reyth?

Just bet these 15 numbers straight up ?
If two times in a row you have no anti and no anti-anti, then maybe you could try.
 
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 05:49:45 PM by funtomas76 »
 

Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2017, 05:48:46 PM »
10 numbers for all three systems, that's not bad!  I think that somehow that is our strength because if we can achieve a hit on those 10 numbers we automatically win no matter what.

So maybe we should have a column that tracks the hits on those 10 numbers and we call it our Convergence Rating and it can be used in our trigger list.

Obviously, any time we DON'T get a hit on those numbers there will be a blank spot in the chart SOMEWHERE.



Here are the percentage chances of gaining a hit with 10 numbers.

In your last example we had a Convergence Rating (CR) of 8, which had a percentage chance of 91.97% of hitting.

That is the chance of you gaining a hit on the FIRST spin by putting on a blindfold and throwing a dart to to choose which system to bet.

So again, how many spins do you want to go in your progression?

          D   P   K C-R
20      x   x   x    0
3        x        x    1
23      x   x         2
24                      3
12                      4
24                      5
28           x         6
28           x         7
9       x    x          8 <=== 91.97% chance of hitting all 3
17     x    x   x

Now if you were to ask me WHICH system to bet, I would say PROBABLY K.  Unless you would be tracking the performance of all the systems and you would always want to bet the long-term hottest system that had gapped; this would have priority over the recent gapping.

Now, we can also have a similar rating for the Anti system.  This we call our Divergence Rating (DR) and it has the same percentage chances as the CR!

So we bet on both CONVERGENCE and DIVERGENCE! :D

Its amazing that we have equal chances of getting a hit on all 3 at once and for missing all 3 at once! :D

Hmmm.... I just realized that is based on the 10 number bet that has overlap --  errrf anyway this is what brainstorming is running ideas around to see what we can discover....

Now what about examining the streaks of the individual systems...

We should also study individual gapping...
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 06:14:15 PM by Reyth »
 
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funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2017, 05:53:18 PM »
You mean if a  anti-anti number is missing maybe 5 times in a row, than bet the anti-anti numbers or bet all three systems?

P has 24 numbers - so you have to bet two times.
K has 20 numbers - but different profits- bet three times
D has 20 numbers - each hit plus 4 - so bet 4 times

Or what do you think?

The problem with k is: you bet 8 units, and mybe loose 8 units. But a win can maybe only be +1 (0 1 2 3).
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 06:10:29 PM by funtomas76 »
 

Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 06:34:30 PM »
Here is 5 numbers:



I am not sure how to approach Divergence -- maybe we should look at streaks.

Btw, have you looked at the Brett Morton system that Sputnik mentioned?  Why not throw that into the mix and see what happens?  At least compare it numbers-wise?

5 times in a row for Divergence is a 58.17% chance of hitting.  So maybe we should focus on keeping that rating as low as possible for our bets?

We should track both Convergence and Divergence.  Obviously we want the highest Convergence rating and the lowest Divergence rating.

If we throw Brett Morton's system in maybe it will add to our Convergence rating and then we can bet the system that is best suggested by their gapping/streak patterns.

How many bets do you want to go in your progresion?
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 06:45:33 PM by Reyth »
 

funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 06:49:20 PM »
Oh, it's getting more and more complicated  :o but maybe in the end we have a good method.

For today I have no more time, sorry, I have to think about all tomorrow. Thank you for your help and interest in the method. See you tomorrow (european time, haha).

Where can I find something about Brett Mortons System?
 
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Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 07:18:51 PM »
 

funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2017, 04:20:24 PM »
Thanks for the link. Do you think it makes sense to expand dkp to dkpm ?
 

Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2017, 04:25:07 PM »
I would analyze the number coverage.  I would specifically be looking for a dimunition of our Divergence; are there now less numbers that are not covered by all systems?

How much overlap is there with other systems?

Actually, we might want to find a way of making the Divergence ZERO. O_o

Then we can play the gaps between the mutual numbers and choose the system that is the hottest or gapped recently the most or other such patterns. :)

There is a phenomenon I have found that I call "cumulative gapping" where, even though a system may have hit in the last spin even, it has a high level of gapping in a large amount of the selection -- I have discovered that this makes it more likely to hit!

If we monitor the performance of all the selections, we can determine the one that has the highest "cumulative gap" rating and when our Convergence meter runs high, we will always know which selection to play.

Just some ideas. :)
« Last Edit: October 21, 2017, 12:09:06 AM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2017, 09:17:01 PM »
 Guys, need to understand very important thing about game in general - basics. Then think how to beat it.
    So before you loose more time thinking in this direction answer honestly for following qwestions:
  1. Are you able to win with any system?
  2. Are you able to play 3 different systems at the same time?
  3. How long is your spam of attention?
 4. How good you are with math? 
      Providing you answered honestly, you probably never will be back to this tread.
  And here is why:
MONEY MANAGEMENT! !!!
     If you are unable to make an optimum money management for one system , how in this world you would be able to do it for few systems at the same time?
    Probably you do not understand importance of money management,  it's OK.  There are simple exercises to follow:
  1. Choose best 10 numbers, try 5-10 different betting systems for these numbers, compare results. Create optimum money management system ( betting).
  2. Choose worst 10 numbers, do the same as in first exercise. ...
  3. Now upply best system for worst numbers and vice versa. ... compare results.
    I'm sure almost no one gonna bother to actually do it. And here is direct reason why system players ( not systems ) loose. Can't be bothered to work on own understanding. ... because if someone actually can , he very qweak stop to be a system player.
    Hope that it will be a wake up call at least for someone , and others do not take it personally,  and if you do... then make these damn exercises till you understand that it's not about You, but roulette that l speak here...
« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 10:11:16 PM by MrPerfect. »
 
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Reyth

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #27 on: October 20, 2017, 10:01:02 PM »
I think Fun is on to something quite powerful with his performance chart.  I think we are able to make some pretty well informed statistical betting decisions based on how this chart manifests.

All systems combined show, at a glance, the status of all the numbers on the board and how they have performed.

I think when we make a betting decision based on convergence & are able to choose the most statistically favorable system to play, we have a very powerful betting strategy.

Sputnik knows what I am talking about with multiple systems.



I wonder about the idea of making a series of systems CUSTOM DESIGNED for this method.

Where each of the systems would have the quality of:

1) Covering the most felt for the least cost
2) Having the highest payout on certain target bets
3) Emphasizing specifically assigned felt locations in the following categories:
a) DZ 1-3
b) CL 1-3
c) Mutual numbers (at least 12)

Let's say we  use 4 different systems.  In order to achieve the above qualities each system would have to bet at least 13 numbers, bet let's see how big we can make the MUTUAL numbers!

If we divide each Dozen into a quadrant and each system covers 1 quadrant in each Dozen, that might be a good plan to create a comprensive set of systems.



This is 4 systems with no overlap within the same system and maximum overlap between them all (at least that is the goal I am attempting to achieve).

SYSTEM 1:



1 2 3 4 5 6
8 9 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18
20 21 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30

26 numbers covered for 6 chips.

SYSTEM 2:



0 2
4 5 6 7 8 9
10 13
16 17 18 19 20 21
28 29 30 31 32 33
35 36

24 numbers covered for 6 chips.

SYSTEM 3:



3 6
7 8 9 10 11 12
14 15 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24
26 27 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36

28 numbers covered for 6 chips.

SYSTEM 4:



1 2 4 5
11 12 14 15
22 23 24 25 26 27
31 32 33 34 35 36

20 numbers covered for 6 chips.

MUTUAL NUMBERS:

NONE (WELP!)

So much for the "perfect system".  So how do we make sure we cover 100% of the felt but have as many mutual numbers as possible and keep the chip cost as low as possible?

I think the key may lie with this last system.  Here are the numbers shared by 1-3:

6 8 9 17 18 20 21 29 30 = nine numbers

That is pretty sad.  How many numbers shared between 1 & 2 and 1 & 3:

1 & 2: 2 4 5 6 8 9 13 16 17 18 20 21 28 29 30 = fifteen numbers

1 & 3: 3 6 8 9 11 12 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 24 26 27 29 30 = eighteen numbers

I think we should try and capture all 18 of those numbers in systems 2 & 4 both!

The 19 numbers NOT covered are:

0 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 32 33 34 35 36



Ok so I was able to generate 12 mutual numbers by doing the following:

REMOVE
1 chip in SP 10-13 SYSTEM 2
1 chip is DS 31-36 SYSTEM 2
1 chip in QD 1-5 SYSTEM 4 *** GIVE TO SYSTEM 2
1 chip in DS 31-36 SYSTEM 4
1 chip in DS 31-36 SYSTEM 4
1 chip in SP 22-25 SYSTEM 4

Take 1 chip away from SYSTEM 4 and give it to SYSTEM 2, now both systems have 3 chips.

1 chip each, 4 numbers = DS 7-12 [8 9 11 12]
1 chip each, 4 numbers = DS 13-18 [14 15 17 18]
1 chip each, 4 numbers = DS 25-30 [26 27 29 30] ===> Give [2] or [4] DS 19-24 instead

Now SYSTEM 4 will have 5 chips and SYSTEM 2 will have 7 chips.



I suck at this.  I am sure you can do a better job. 

Right now though, that is 4 systems with 100% board coverage & 12 mutual numbers.

I would love to have 18 mutual numbers, that would be amazing!
« Last Edit: October 21, 2017, 06:16:15 AM by Reyth »
 
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funtomas76

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2017, 07:02:10 AM »
Thank you Reyth.
And it would nice to have a combination of each two system, with coverage of 24 numbers each.
So we would have two new systems and determine a trigger.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: System DKP
« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2017, 09:04:13 AM »

All these systems are large number bet systems. That means  that they all will loose after about 200 spins.In the short run every thing is possible. Here the research results of the 26 number bet with 6 units. The DTOP is about 120 spins. The positive 100 spins  samples are rare..

I agree with MrPerfect.
United systems can not create a HG. United systems are very beautiful, but do not expect they can make you a successful player.Simple systems with a simple strategy has the preference. 
 
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