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Scarface

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Question for AP Players
« on: October 10, 2017, 04:58:07 AM »
Question for AP players. 
  • Do you believe most wheels are biased enough to overcome house edge in the long run? 
  • From your experience, what percentage of roulette wheels are worth playing
  • I know most AP players don't believe in systems.  But what system do you think would have the most success?


 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2017, 09:25:45 AM »
1. My practical data studies show non random nature of all wheels that l studied ( around 20).
 Only 1 of them required specific skill to "help it " overcome HE.
2. For me personally,  wheels that have less then 10% edge are not worth my time. It has to do with time limitations mostly. Player with more time to play could make a good money there as well.
 3. Almost any system will work, providing that you bet on numbers with higher hit frequency  ( more then basic probability dictates).  Systems that account persentage of expected edge will be more effective . They need to have different bet strategy for different situations. 
 
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Scarface

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2017, 05:59:53 PM »
Thank you Mr Perfect for your response!  So, from your experience roughly 1 in 20 wheels qualify to play.  That seems about right.  Guess I hoped it would be that most wheels would have bias of 10% or more.

So, the system you prefer is one based on hot numbers and good money management.  This makes sense from an AP point of view.  While I don't think I would have the time or patience now to track numbers and locate bias wheels, I have changed my strategy to play hot numbers with good money management.  Definitely has helped my success
 
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Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2017, 07:52:38 PM »
Me too bro!

You know the 4 number system you guys were working on, I think it would work well with hot numbers and RNG BiasTM:

There must be a single Quad on the felt that must outperform every other, over a long term.

We just use the "AP approach" to identify the long-term winners.  Granted, without a physical bias we have to deal with things like focus SHIFTS & DISPERSION, but every random sequence must produce RNG BiasTM because the sequence size will always be limited as will the possible results & felt locations.

Sorry to sort of barf that in this thread but I got kinda inspired reading that thread yesterday.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2017, 08:38:24 PM »
 Scarface,  all wheels l studied up till now we're able to overcome HE by themselves.  Only one really needed special skill from player.
   I can even tell you what was that skill. It's players ability to determine direction of additional rotating effect that ball may have ( backspin, drag,  slide..ets).
   Obviousy simply collection of numbers wouldn't do the trick . Need proper data collection and analysis skills. For only number results data , maybe 1 or 2 of them would qualify.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2017, 08:40:27 PM »

There must be a single Quad on the felt that must outperform every other, over a long term.


Doesn't even have to be a quad.  Could be any 4 hot numbers. :)  Everytime a play, which is normally 6 to 8 hours straight, there is always 1 or 2 numbers that continue to hit the whole time!

Sure, a number could suddenly go cold when you play it.  But what's the odds of 4 hot numbers all turning cold.  If 1 isn't performing well, could always switch it out with one that is
« Last Edit: October 15, 2017, 08:56:30 PM by Reyth »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2017, 09:32:28 PM »
Our problem is there is no way to tell (without tracking the numbers) if the hot numbers that we are experiencing is a short-term trend (these are necessary for maintaining relatively balanced results) or a long-term trend where our numbers will continue to hit more often, even after slowing down; all numbers slow down.

You raise a great point though about playing at B&M casinos because for me it might as well be on Mars; I don't even think that way when thinking about how to play.  One good thing though that I have been doing is tracking the numbers for the last 37 spins and beginning to play from that; so I guess that would work at a B&M. :)
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2017, 10:47:35 PM »
Scarface, l sou cases where as much as 12 " hot numbers" would switch off for a while. Like coming 2 times only in 100 spins. Odds of this should be simply ridiculous.
    It simply life of player to aquire data collection and data analysis skills. Player can associate specific numbers to specific conditions,  this way player need less data and his decisions will be more precise. 
    Best numbers on the wheel often do not become active all together, but come in groups. .. there are cases when hit to one of numbers from such group could be used as a trigger to bet on others. This kind of relationship can be traced even with  mathematics . Curently lm testing approach of Reyth to make excel take these decisions automatically. 
 
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Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2017, 11:02:16 PM »
Wow very interesting!  Well one thing I have recently done is notice when "bad times are a commin'" with my neighbors and during those times I will "take a breather" and sometimes my neighbor will get a hit by itself and I will gain an advantage on my selection but most of the time, it seems, I also miss out on a hit or two in the process.

I always bet my groups on the felt and so I have noticed certain "felt based phenomena" but its not because there is dust on the pixels or they are scratched... ;D

The phenomenon that we all face are the peaks and valleys of our selection:

HOT STREAK --- EXTENDS TOO FAR -- COLD STREAK -- EXTENDS TOO FAR -- (REPEAT)

I monitor both of these "peaks" and although there is no way to tell when the peak is finally reached or how much it will move from the extreme, our biased selection will spend less time in the cold streak than any other selections; the longer in a streak, the greater chances it will reverse.

There ARE certain amazing times when our selection is having a hot streak and a cold streak at the same time!  Its at these times that we get the most rapid hits in the shortest period. :D
« Last Edit: October 15, 2017, 11:27:53 PM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2017, 11:10:38 AM »
 Reyth. No need to be an expert in probability to understand few things that are simple.
   For example,  combinations on the felt do not really represent order of numbers on the wheel.
    There are much more posible combinations of numbers that may be useful, then felt presents for easy betting.
    Any software that is limited to group numbers either by felt or wheel order will provide incomplete view of betting opportunities posible.
            What if best numbers for given situation are dispersed on both wheel and felt order??? It happens often. Simple example : 1, 13, 24, 36....
 It's imposible to cover it easy on both wheel and felt order....
     We wanna bet the best bet selection , right?
                This is exactly what happens in this game: there is a limit of betting amount per number, limit of betting combinations of numbers, limit of players ability to visualise betting opportunities, limit in understanding,  limit in information avaliable for a player...  ets.
     It's lots of limits , isn't it?
 

Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2017, 03:16:12 PM »
There is only one way to bet a group of numbers and not use SU bets and regardless of what group we use, there will ALWAYS be a best one.  Is it comprised of only the top numbers?  NO.  It doesn't have to be, to be the best!

But EXCELLENT POINT -- Shouldn't the very best numbers gap even less and perform even better?

I have asked myself this question and have run some tests.  I have decided that the top 9 numbers should yield the best results long term, providing the most protection against fluctuation in performance, while minimizing "waste" bets on numbers that won't come in long-term.

Its certainly true that I make more money faster betting these numbers but I have a larger risk in bankroll amount too...

I haven't studied these 9 numbers very much...
« Last Edit: October 16, 2017, 04:07:16 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2017, 04:33:08 PM »
Unfortunately there are no strict rules for how many numbers to bet to achieve a better profit.
    It's always a trade off between security of bankroll and profitability.
    Betting too many numbers in limited time is not very easy as well. Less numbers you bet ( best ones) , better is your edge, but more fluctuations to be expected also....
    Every case should be considered separately,  depending on ability of player to bet multiple numbers in time, bankroll,  edge... ets.
 

Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2017, 05:00:05 PM »
Wow ya and make those calculations, that seems like the toughest part, calculating the edge and deciding the total numbers to bet...

So here is some output for the top numbers:

.#.................Hits (> expectation)
 7.................163
 10...............135
 19...............164
 20...............140
 22...............121
 25...............137

In this case its lower than usual, only 6 numbers and also the performance is lower, usually we see at least one number with over 200 hirs more than expectation. 

So obviously we are betting at least 2 numbers (19 & 7) but the question is, where do we cut it off?  Do we just bet them all??

Interesting to note RNG BiasTM in DS 19-24 here. :D
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 04:20:54 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2017, 06:58:10 PM »
How many spins are at the sample? Your spins over expectation coefficient is better to represent dinamics,  not the statics. BTW,  very usefull thing... 
      It's difficult to say anything from numbers only. Would be nice to have order of numbers how they came, besides other things.

     
 

Reyth

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Re: Question for AP Players
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2017, 08:22:40 PM »
The spin sample was 16M spins. :)

At some point soon, I plan to dig into these samples to find out how the flow went.  The one thing I like to see is RNG BiasTM consistently represented even over the long-term.