Author Topic: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.  (Read 2655 times)

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kav

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #30 on: September 12, 2017, 05:29:22 PM »
McCoy,
 This a fast and rough summary without reading dozens of roulette forum posts.

--

I think MrPerfect is a great example of someone who is not a "system player" yet:
  • shares knowledge
  • doesn't derogate other peoples personalities and ideas
  • contributes to general discussions
I encourage everyone who is interested in Visual Ballistics and Advantage Play to take part with questions and comments in the Visual Ballistics board, where MrPerfect does a great job sharing his knowledge. I would love Real to take part in the discussions there.
Here are some recent topics:---

Quote
They do behave like obnoxious children.
This is often my perception too. And although I avoid pointing fingers, I'm speaking about Real. I'm not getting tired of different opinions. But I demand that everyone respects everyone else - lack of respect is something I can not stand. And everyone who spends time and effort to write a meaningful post deserves respect IMO, whether someone else agrees or not with the content.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 05:40:37 PM by kav »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2017, 05:39:53 PM »


We all think that our approach is as good as anyone else's. The main dissenters are the AP in this forum .They dismiss all Methods without " Discussion " . They promote their version of AP and insult anyone who differs.
Real claimed that this forum was no longer in business and yet continues to post in it ! He gave his Ebook for free to those in the forum who were interested in his method -so why not publish it in the forum  if he is here to " educate " us."?  Mr . Perfect claims that he too. is here to " educate " us - yet uses the Moon's phases to aid his predictions . What have they to offer when they wrongly believe that THEY don't gamble  ?
Abuse begets abuse .
kav is right. There is a need for  more tolerance of other's views . Theree is NO  HG and it is foolish to claim otherwise.
kav . Mr. perfect doesn't derogate others ? Really ?
He doesn't derogate others when he  says that those who are lazydon't deserve the title of Human ? Really?
He didn't derogate me when he made  his vile post calling me a liar etc..Really ?
What do you consider as " abuse " ?
 
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kav

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #32 on: September 12, 2017, 05:45:20 PM »
Scepticus, none is calling you a liar, it was a mistake if it happened. This forum is against PERSONAL attacks. Period.
Part of the problem is also that many of us take criticism personally, instead of taking it for what is worth and moving on.

About GUT:
Winkel/Janusz is not obliged to offer us a winning method. Anyone can take it for what it is worth to him. If you think it's worthless, forget it. If you feel it is worth something, discuss it. Simple as that.

About TEASING

There IS a rule on this forum about people who claim a lot and share nothing, also called the "put up or shut up" rule :-). But if someone, even without revealing their system completely, offers enough info for people to be provoked to do their own thinking then he is actually offering something useful. Especially if one doesn't overdo the "claim" part. I don't understand why someone feels so upset if people discuss systems, even systems that are not fully revealed (like thomasleor or Talos) or systems that in his opinion "do not work".
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 06:14:10 PM by kav »
 
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Real

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #33 on: September 12, 2017, 06:40:46 PM »
Quote
Real claimed that this forum was no longer in business and yet continues to post in it !

Where? What? When?  I've never said such a thing.

Quote

He gave his Ebook for free to those in the forum who were interested in his method -so why not publish it in the forum  if he is here to " educate " us."? 

I haven't freely given anyone here on this forum an E book, and I don't have one to share.
Quote

He didn't derogate me when he made  his vile post calling me a liar etc..Really ?

He may not have, however, I'm considering using the term. 
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 06:43:27 PM by Real »
 

scepticus

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #34 on: September 12, 2017, 06:47:28 PM »

1 ) In another forum in your guise as " The General ".
2 )Harry J said you had sent him it .
So why do you deny it ? Not lying of course - just forgetfulness ?
 

scepticus

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #35 on: September 12, 2017, 06:51:00 PM »

kav
Calling someone a liar is a " Mistake " ? Really ?
You complain about Real's persistent putdowns yet allow Mr. Perfect ? Hardly being even-handed is it ?
 

Real

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #36 on: September 12, 2017, 06:53:32 PM »
Quote
1 ) In another forum in your guise as " The General ".
2 )Harry J said you had sent him it .
So why do you deny it ? Not lying of course - just forgetfulness ?

Please provide a link.  I never said such a thing.

And who's Harry J.?
 

Real

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #37 on: September 12, 2017, 07:00:45 PM »
Getting back on topic:

The GUT didn't work because each crossing failed to perform.  Each defined crossing lost at the house edge as expected.
If each crossing losses, then the sum of all crossing is also going to be a net loser.  This is what Kon Fu Sed had tested and concluded.

In the end it was determined that the GUT appeared to work because of faulty testing that enabled the user to look backwards and forwards during the testing process to find which crossing worked the best.  The flaw was not intentional and was obviously an unintentional consequence.  In my opinion Winkel did not try to mislead anyone, but rather other people misled themselves by continuing the curve fitting process while testing the system.

 Winkel still claims the system works, but can't define the latest rules of the system, because doing so would enable someone like Kon Fu to once again demonstrate that it won't work.  His claim is that it relies on the human element.  It's possible that he honestly doesn't realize that it doesn't work because he too has fallen victim to the curve fitting process.

Curve fitting is a common problem when inexperienced players test systems without carefully defining the rules of the system, test parameters, and limit the degrees of freedom being tested.

I have no personal vendetta against Winkel, and I wish him well.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 07:18:18 PM by Real »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #38 on: September 12, 2017, 07:27:13 PM »

Offhand I can't recall the name of the forum. When you said that this forum no longer existed another member asked why you hadn't saved it -because of your self -  proclaimed  expertise. In that forum you also claimed that you owned some roulette forums and was on the lookout for more. Your " mugshot " was as in this forum.
So you deny posting as The General ?
As for not knowing Harry J other members will see my point about your " forgetfulness " because you wished him well during his illness .
 

scepticus

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #39 on: September 12, 2017, 07:34:13 PM »

Real
If I remember rightly the member who replied to you  was Roulette Ghost,
If he reads this perhaps he will confirm what I said ?
Or if  a member here knows him perhaps he will ask him the truthfulness of my claim ?
 

Real

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #40 on: September 12, 2017, 07:36:57 PM »
Scepticus,

1. I don't own any roulette forums.
2. I now know which Harry you're referring to, but I never sent him a copy of a book.

« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 07:38:34 PM by Real »
 

Reyth

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2017, 03:24:54 AM »
Curve fitting is a common problem when inexperienced players test systems without carefully defining the rules of the system, test parameters, and limit the degrees of freedom being tested.

I have no personal vendetta against Winkel, and I wish him well.

Curve fitting is not a problem for SYSTEM TESTING, it is a facet of STRATEGY DESIGN.  I believe your post, like most of them, is disingenuous and therefore probably inaccurate.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #42 on: September 13, 2017, 09:41:58 AM »
Curve fitting is good only to determine how to bet, to determine what to bet it's a very misleading thing.
   So, for betting plan-yes, Yes, YES!!! For betting target- VERY BIG "NO WAY".
   Take as example foresters RC, it has multiple samples and in play it try to " fit the curve" for timings to determine wich sample is to choose as reference for current spin in play. It's a major reason why users of such RC loose. Instead of looking to to curve fitt for most spins it looks " ideal sample " that current spin correspond the most. Well, reason for unnecessary exteniton of dispersion where none of this should exist.
    Instead of curve fitting , consistency tests should be performed,  hipotesys testing, like separate sample ( data) in many parts , use first to define rulls and second part to test performance. ..ets.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #43 on: September 13, 2017, 11:49:12 AM »
I'm not a ninja in system creation, l just follow the wheel and ball. But even for systems, first need to have a system , next is to test it ..  at least l see it this way.
  If one has a system with flexible rules that are fitted as you go and depends on " human factor", it's not nessesarely mean that a system is good, probably system designer is lucky and gess very well, especially if results of such a system can not be replicated by others.
    It's easy to create logically sounding system for any data collection by curve fitting, but such a system needs to be multiple times retested on other data collections to determine real potential for performance. 
   Just my 50 cents. ..
 
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RouletteGhost

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Re: Constructive reviews and explanation as to why the GUT doesn't work.
« Reply #44 on: September 13, 2017, 12:37:37 PM »
You guys beat things to death

It's not productive. It is annoying

Why do you care if people play a certain strategy

You don't like gut so don't play it

Clear to see you are just tying to get under people's skin. Life that boring? Who cares how people decide to play

All you guys do is criticize day in and day out

Stop talking about gut.

Actually, to be honest, constantly criticizing gut makes you look wanting.

« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 03:08:36 PM by kav »
 
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