Author Topic: Why Does Your System Win  (Read 1824 times)

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Scarface

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Why Does Your System Win
« on: August 26, 2017, 03:33:36 AM »
For those here that have long term winning systems.  Why does your system win? 


 

kav

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2017, 08:01:18 AM »
Good question.
In my experience it is not the system alone that wins but the player using a good system.
It is like asking "why does your gun kills?".
The player should know how to use the system, be disciplined, have adequate bankroll, avoid mistakes, identify rigged games etc.
Every system has strengths and weaknesses. The player must understand and adapt.

 
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2017, 10:44:09 AM »
 It's a super qwestion!!! Forum really needs more topics like that.
  I play vb system that l call vb3. There are 3 main reasons why it win:
   1. It permit to predict with the high accuracy wich number ball will beat first and with some tweaks allow to sort out aberrant trials as well.
   2. Due to immutability of reference point into the spin , it gives ability to control timings ball takes to different fall of points, giving player ability to judge posible overlaps without taking huge amount of data .
   3. In its "perfect form" (vb4) it permits to judge where exactly ball is more likely to jump in relation to the tilt ( uphill, downhill) , wich in turn permits to focus on specific ball jump expected.
   
 
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nickmsi

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2017, 12:55:41 PM »
By changing the odds from a negative expectation to a positive expectation.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2017, 01:04:56 PM »
Long term winning systems does not exist. Every system can be brought to a number bet. Every number bet has a DTOP. From this point every system has a permanent loss. A roulette method can be profitable. A method consists of a strategy, a system and a betting selection . Experience, skill and talent are also indispensable. In general players play always short run sessions. The results of short run SYSTEMS are unpredictable. Hit and run makes the difference.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2017, 01:39:23 PM »
Doubblsteen, and if numbers that you are betting do in fact have positive expectation,do they have a dtop? 
 

Real

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2017, 07:47:29 PM »
What Dobbelsteen likely doesn't understand is that short term + short term + short term..., = permanent loss
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2017, 08:16:47 PM »
According to my humble estimation, together with training sessions, l already observed and played thru more then 600 000 spins... still wondering, what is that short run thing is?
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2017, 09:00:46 PM »
I think Nick is right, there are concrete ways to improve expectation.

What Dobble is saying about systems is of course correct, the HE makes sure that an automated system will fail long term.

That's why what Kav & Dobble say is so important, that a strategy is something that is implemented by a person who makes intelligent choices based on data and experience.

I like what Harry J says about how roulette functions for us (short term sessions) statistically:

In any large series of random trials every posibility would tend to occur in proportion to it's probability. In short the odds would "Average out" along the way. The larger the series of trials the closer the result would be to the expected average(Mean). In an infinite series, every posibility would ocur in exact preportion to it's probability.

     This became known as the "Law of Averages", and was the basis of probability for 100 years.

 " In any series of EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED Random Trials,in which the individual trials were MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. The larger the number of trials the closer the percentage result would be to the expected (Theoretical) MEAN. Although the actual deviation would tend to get larger." -- Pascal/Bernouli

     This became known as the "Law of Large Numbers", and is the basis of modern probability. T

    The extent to which the actual result will diverge from the theoretical expectation is a funtion of the square root of the number of trials. This divergence, known as the STANDARD DEVIATION can be calculated using the formula :-

    "That 68.3% of the time the divergence would be one SD or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    "That 95% of the time the divergence would be  2 SD's or less.  Either side of the MEAN.
    "That 99.7% of the time the divergence would be 3 SD's or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    "That only 0.3% of the time would the divergence exceed 3 SD's

    Not only does this Theorem offer an explanation of "Regression Toward the Mean", But it allows us to roughly calculate, and assess the deviations, that are a common factor in any series of random trials.

    There is no way known to man to accurately calculate a probability! If you use the "Law of Large numbers" or SD's to calculate. About the best you can hope for is that 2/3rds of the time you might only be 1 SD off target. Much of the time you could be up to 2 SD's off target! How does this translate into figures? Not well for the punter! The number of trials is far too small for any degree of accuracy. The "fudge factor" is just too large.

    There is one other factor that must be taken into account when working with short random trials. It is a theory, and no proof is offered. That is the 'RANDOM WALK THEORY" It is obvious that every trial in a series changes the percentage of deviation, and possibly it's DIRECTION. Unlike the SD the "random walk produces sharp zigzags in the short term, rather than the slower, average, waves of the SD.  It is in the peaks and valleys of these short term zigzags that the punter will find the best chance of defeating probability.

      Harry     

What I have found that agrees with this assessment is that MOST OF THE TIME roulette will generally agree with expectation but CONSISTENTLY it will deviate in ways that are impossible for any betting schema to handle.

A winning system MUST learn to survive and thrive DESPITE this guaranteed chaos because the only alternative is to get CRUSHED!

« Last Edit: August 26, 2017, 09:15:02 PM by Reyth »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2017, 08:40:22 AM »

I full agree with the paper of Harry. My simple short run theory is based on the theoretical and mathematic features as Harry describes.
REAL@ I do not know what you mean with a positive expectation.
In Jip and Janeke language I have explained that particular small sessions are together not a random occurence . You do not understand the difference between a strategy and a system. Hit and run makes sessions particular.

The image shows that after about 150 spins a 18 number system has a permanent loss. The equilibrium is reached by about 250 spins and a loss percentage of 2,7%.
 

palestis

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2017, 10:04:20 AM »
When you play roulette you have to define your session.
Open ended sessions will eventually fall victim to the HE, and also variance.
A closed session must specify the average number of spins that you will play. Based on your historical experience.
When you decide to play 60 spins in a session, (usually after a trigger),  one thing is certain.
Not all of the 60 spins can be losing spins and neither they can all be winning spins.
The entire session will be divided in losing spins and winning spins. That's a fact of life in roulette playing.
The problem is that even with very few losing spins, if the progression is too high, one losing spin can wipe out 59 winning spins out of the 60 in the session.
In a session of 60 spins, many losing spins can be overcome with the VIRTUAL LOSS method. The remainder of the spins in the total playable 60 spins, naturally will contain more winning spins than losing spins. Because some or most losing spins have been eliminated cost free with the virtual loss method.
Furthermore, since many losing spins have been removed from  the statistical count, you don't need steep progressions to recover a streak of losses.
Knowing that more winning spins ( within a predetermined session), are on your side makes the whole difference.
But a major requirement is to define the total amount of spins in the session.
And work within the borders.
The idea of lost winning opportunities  ( when some spins are played virtually), is the culprit of major disasters. Because it forces you to play every spin, and forces you to use steep progressions.
In a way it transforms a CLOSED SESSION into a open ended session.
Non other than a  long run  disguised as a collection of short runs.
Short run is not necessarily a session that you will play for a day.
Short run is a predefined number of spins that you will play, with their own statistical facts within the predetermined amount of spins to be played.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 10:44:34 AM by palestis »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2017, 11:01:11 AM »
There are some tactics that help to keep money in the poket.
   For example "lock" your winnings... if you win 100, lock 50 as money you not risk, with other 50 if win 200, lock other 100... ets. People get tired and start to do mistakes,  this should be accounted in play also.
   Other thing that is helpful is to have a target for a day. If target is achieved and there are some money extra, l can take bigger risk..  like wait for good conditions ( 1 zone instead of 2, repetitive ball jump..ets) and bet higher. Most impressive of my winnings came this way. Some hits on the row with agressive betting may make real difference.
    In any case, as my own experience show, if tired and things do not make sense anymore, best way of action is to take a brake for a sigarette or a day.
   Other thing that will help any player is to be in control, like if you play vb , control of time ball takes on every spin... it will reduce spins where you actually bet, but will greatly improve accuracy, plus provide time to think and reassess the situation. I for example skip any other spin ( one direction only), it reduce spins you play in half but gives the time to maintain the accuracy wich may produce 2-5 times more win.
    In short, pay attention,  short runs add up... it happens more qweak then many realise. Every time you bet, you already at the long run.
    Even while playing systems ( in very beginning ) these tactics used to pay off...
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2017, 03:25:58 PM »
Hit and run makes sessions particular.

How and why does hit and run make sessions particular?  My understanding has been forced to be that only personal permanence applies to each session?

Quote
The image shows that after about 150 spins a 18 number system has a permanent loss.


Hey, I bet you like Winkel's GUT system?  He takes hit and run out to a fine art?
 
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mr j

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2017, 12:22:44 AM »
Hmmm, I guess its all open to "disagreeing". (lol)

First, I dont play systems, I play methods.

For *MYSELF*........ only betting 2-3 numbers, no progression, high enough BR so I can survive the peaks & valleys,
understanding EVERY aspect/etiquette of the game, +1.5 of a gross hit STOP, - x4 of a gross hit STOP, playing HOT numbers (open to interpretation. MANY definitions), using some past numbers (I really dont care what happened 900 spins ago).

I'm sure there might be more but thats all I can come up with for now.

"The casino doesn't beat unlucky people. It takes advantage of the uneducated".

Ken
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 12:25:55 AM by mr j »
 
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Real

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Re: Why Does Your System Win
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2017, 01:58:15 AM »
The old saying is often true,  casinos... like cigarette companies... rely on exploiting the poor and ignorant.