Ya I usually trash a system within days. I've been playing this one for almost 2 months. There is ALOT of stumbling around from beginning to end but one thing has remained consistent: the HS Ratio. It is the very key to success. It gives me the following invaluable advantages:

1) The discipline not to chase short-term hot numbers

2) The knowledge of exactly when to switch selections

It works with every possible bet selection, even DZ & EC. I have been trying to think of some way to increase the earning power; I will be working on such things once I hit 13300 BU.

I have done it. I have finally achieved 5 full recovery levels in profit.

I am now declaring this system to be a winning system.

There are so many things I want to do, now that I know the system works but first I will tally and organize all the performance statistics.

**Total non-PLE coups:** 4434 (13,300/3 as an estimate)

**Total PLE's:** 28

20 of these PLE's were recovered uncontested

5 of them had 1 PLE during the recovery

3 of them had 2 PLE's during recovery

Level 4 was seen twice & Level 5 in the Recovery Tier was not seen.

**Largest drawdown:** -4205 BU

**Total debt drawdown:** -23922 BU

**Total recovery coups:** 1682

**Total coups taken:** 6116

**Total betting events: **37718 (6116*6.167 as an estimate)

**Coups Vs. PLE's:** 6116 vs. 34; 99.444%

Its amazing to see I lost almost twice as much as I won! This is because of the use of a progression and the overall profit shows its effective implementation; another indication of this is the smaller amount of total PLE coups compared to non-PLE coups, despite almost twice the BU's.

Now I will begin the enjoyable task of

pure statistical research with the goal of improving the system, with the initial focus on predicting and avoiding PLE's. There is also a goal to improve earning power, if possible.

If we only bet on our selection if at least one the following conditions are true:

A) It is the uncontested short-term streak leader

B) It has a greater cumulative gap than most of the other selections

C) It has a STR of 6

D) It has a NSP of 262 or greater

E) The neighbors are less than 11 steps in the progression

^{*}^{*}This is only a negative precept, this condition must always be true or no bets may be placedThen PLE's will only occur when

our short-term streaks end during our progression.

Of course the cause of a short-term streak ending is the sleeping of the numbers in our selection but what is the cause of that?

The cause is that other selections have a short-term streak.

So the key to avoiding PLE's on our selection is to predict:

A) When the short-term streak on our selection is going to end/slow down

B) When the short-term streak on other selections is going to start

This brings me back to the Forecasting mod that I started working on. This will indicate to us the baseline schedule for the performance of our selection and we should be able to see when other selections are stronger throughout the forecast.

I must implement this mod. Implemented.

**Hit Frequency Cycle**Every bet selection goes through these cycles. A long-term hot selection will cycle through more quickly than other selections.

The keys to success are accurately indentifying "A", betting on the selection & accurately identifying "B" where we cease betting.

If we are between A & B, the question we always need to ask is, "Is our short-term hot streak about to end?", which we ask before beginning to bet and if we are between B & A its, "Is a short-term hot streak about to begin?", which we ask on every spin.

With proper implentation of a system using this criteria, PLE's can be used as a source of profit; i.e. larger gaps will also be used as a betting signal and when the peak signs of a hot streak is no longer present, we cease to bet.

Hit_Prediction_2This is how I used to play. We have a KoH in DS 13-18, it has 5 active numbers within the last 27 spins, totaling 14 hits in row -- thats a VERY hot streak! Nothing on the board comes close, with the closest being DS 4-9, having 4 active numbers that total 7 hits in a row.

I would simply bet DS 13-18 without question. However, this is how I play now:

The pink 5 in the Forecast screen, is the horizontal line which represents DS 13-18. DS 4-9 is horizontally represented in the row entitled "2". This is a forecast of when the numbers drop off. Clearly, DS 4-9 has a more powerful streak, as does DS 1-6.

More importantly though, my selection drops off completely in only 12 spins. So here, with a more complete picture, I will choose not to bet and wait to see more spins.

In other words, I would rather bet:

444444444444444443333332 2/1 2/1 2/1 = 80 (DS 7 -12)

in my progression (where each value represents the quantity of active numbers) than:

555544444432222211111111111 = 68 (DS 13-18)

Furthemore, notice the red numbers down right side of the Forecast screen? That is the entire board gapping more than my selection (this is the reason streaks end); in order to beat this level of competition consistently, I need a STRONG streak. Any sign of weakness and its best not to bet.

So I am operating on the assumption that our selection has cycled through to the "B" point in the Hit Frequency Cycle. Could I be wrong and miss out on hits? Yes, but I would much rather bet on a fresher streak that provides the most active numbers during each bet.

**Random Notes**There are two betting perspectives:

A) My selection versus the board (hot streak) --

**getting hits despite the whole board gapping**B) The board versus my selection (cold streak) --

**getting hits despite the whole board getting hits**The key is knowing when to switch between the two.

Hot streaks are when multiple numbers (STR Rating) are working synergistically (SQ Rating) to provide a better hit rate (HS Ratio) than expectation.

Idea for a new status indicator:

Hit Perentage Indicator

The question is how to make it work. I have a series of 11 numbers, each of them are a statistical chance of a selection hitting on the next spin. All of them together add up to more than 100% and so I figure that if I can "pro-rate" them somehow, I can create a percentage...

122 = 22.40125 = 3.18% ===> 10

101 = 13.11828 = 1.86% ===> 11

169 = 47.08872 = 6.68% ===> 8

272 = 86.0783 = 12.20% ===>

**5**274 = 86.51707 = 12.27% ===>

**4**173 = 49.18493 = 6.97% ===> 7

143 = 33.17781 = 4.70% ===> 9

345 = 95.96862 = 13.60% ===>

**3**401 = 98.60735 = 13.98% ===>

**1**359 = 96.87852 = 13.73% ===>

**2**236 = 76.35414 = 10.82% ===>

**6**

**Synergy Theorem***Groups of hot numbers that are all currently hitting above expectation are more likely to produce a subsequent hit that is also above expectation, in proportion to the size of the group and the proximity of their individual hits.***Cumulative Disparity Theorem***Groups of hot numbers are more likely to produce a hit that is above expectation in dynamic proportion to their current cumulative gap since each number hit.*

Great potential idea to increase the earning power:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1108.msg15568#msg15568

Cumulative_Gap_TriggerIt continued for a few more hits before number 18 finally hit.

CGT_2

Currently established four betting triggers:

1)

**Synergy Streak** -- 4 or more numbers hitting in close proximity

2)

**Disparity Streak** -- Cumulative gapping in the selection creating favorable statistics

3)

**Board Disparity** -- Greater cumulative gapping than at least 24 numbers

4)

**Statistical Gap** -- A significant gap prior to any bets being placed

The first trigger bets on the postive streaks that occur but is the most dangerous; the PLE's, when they occur, take place on this trigger. I raise 1/2 unit when 6 numbers have hit rapidly.

The other 3 triggers take advantage of favorable statistics as the selection slows down.

I raise 1/2 unit on the second trigger.

Some PLE's have occurred on the third trigger but so far, none when at least 24 numbers have less cumulative gapping.

No PLE's have yet occurred on the fourth trigger. This trigger works extremely well for dodging PLE's and instead of taking a loss, turning a profit! I am considering raising with this trigger as the static odds are 1:1000 to miss.

I also raise 1/2 unit when more than one trigger coincides; i.e. 3&4, 2&3, 2&4

The goal is to play WITH variance, not against it. It has a certain degree of predictability overall and we can certainly know its effects, AFTER each spin.

Maybe a key is to track individual number histories in a graphical way. After all, its individual numbers that go hot and cold that create the variance.

Its the Return FrequencyTM that holds the key to the onset of postive variance and its the Exit FrequencyTM (R) that measures the end of streaks!!!

I have in mind a simulation whereby I track the STR rating on a normal DS and count the number of gaps for each STR rating 1-6.

I need to find the formula that generates the total number of spins that the STR rating being tracked will persist. This is a tangled difficulty and I need to think about this to determine exactly what I want to track and why...

The Synergy Theorem states that given a certain sequence length that is shorter than expectation, a hot streak can be measured in its strength by how many spins before it ceases to be a streak (without a hit) and that the longer it would take for it not to be a streak, the stronger the streak is (using the given sequence length).

I am currently holding

at least 4 numbers hitting within 27 spins as a bettable hot streak

if the streak would continue for at least 15 spins. The question is, what is the best way to test this assumption while allowing for different results with other configurations?

Output**STR**:::::

**Streak Length**:::::

**STRQ**::::::::::

**NSP**::::::::

**# of Gaps**:::::

**# of Hits**[1-6]:::::::::::[1-27]:::::::::::::::::::[1-???]::::::[5-874]:::::::::[16M]:::::::::::::::::[16M]

With this being applied across the board in 4 categories, we should clearly see the difference in performance of the various streaks. Once the data is generated, I can chart the results from various perspectives.

I need to run 16M tests on each of the 6 STR figures in order to properly quantify each of the streaks.

I can finally generate data on hot streaks!

A new statistical test:

**Percentage of the Board NSP State**This will track the number of hits for each NSP percentage of the selection vs. the total from the rest of the board.

The reason for this test is to make the NSP statistics

more informed than just the static percentages. Right now the NSP percentage chances to hit are based on the statistics from 16M spins

without taking into account the status of the rest of the board at the time of the coup.

The percentage rate output will be "board informed" which should substantially improve our statistical accuracy, providing more triggers, that are more "situationally accurate".

**BOMB SHELTER ALERT! INCOMING MESSAGE FROM TURBO GENIUS!**Run 1,000 spins and note the top 15 hottest numbers.

Run another 1,000 and re-check.

A few will have dropped off of the list right ? Of course - but.... some of them will remain and continue

to stay hot.

Another 1,000 spins ? More drop off, some stay.

Another 1,000 spins ?

Now someone can say - "what good is that, you don't know which ones are going to do what - it's random !!!" but they aren't thinking really.

We can use progressions - which make up for the fact that we have no idea with 100% accuracy which ones will do which.

No one can predict that kind of info, and we don't have to. We're not playing ALL of the numbers on the table.

Cold number staying cold - we don't lose on them. Hot numbers going cold - we don't lose on them.

Hot numbers staying hot - we don't win or lose on them - and numbers becoming hot ? We make a killing with the progression in place that covers any loss from not being 100% accurate with the other categories.

The anti-system people are first to jump in and say that it's mumbo-jumbo and some "mystery" that no one can figure out - it's up to you to agree with them or not.

They won't deny though that the only way to win is to play numbers that show above expected (which are hot numbers) and to NOT play numbers that aren't showing up (common sense).

They can throw rocks at the idea that a system and progression based on repeaters is nonsense - but at the same time they surely have to understand that it makes complete sense, and that the road to always winning is down that road.'' TurboGenius

**Think of a butterfly slowly flapping its wings.**Individual selections go through periods of intense speed, relative speed & slowdown -- in no particular order.

**Think of a racecar, slowing down for curves and speeding up on straight-aways.**The

**Butterfly** tells us WHAT to bet on and the

**Racecar** tells us WHEN to bet.

I spin at least 37 times before betting and usually wait a bit longer beyond that. The reason is because I must differentiate between

**short-term trends** and

**the long-term trend**.

Sometimes it can take up to around 300 spins for this to finally become clear.

What is the best way to measure the

**Return Frequency** and

**Exit Frequency** of individual numbers?

Return Frequency -- Hot streak measurement; how long a hot streak lasts

Exit Frequency -- Cold streak measurement; how long a cold streak lasts

What is the definition of a hot streak and a cold streak?

A hot streak is when a number hits within 27 spins and is measured by the SQ (Streak Quality) rating.

A cold streak is when a number doesn't hit within 27 spins as is measured by the NSP (number of spins since the last hit) rating.

The SQ rating shows the

number of times in a row that a number has hit within 27 spins but the NSP rating only shows

the number of spins since the last hit -- I can see now that they really are reverse sides of the same coin and thus can be measured as

one number that is either positive or negative!

The following NSP figures for example:

17 40 112 6 39 52

would instead be:

**2 -1 -4 3 -1 -1**This shows a selection with high

disparity that has hit 5 times in a row above expectation but has missed 7 times in a row below expectation (a hot streak and cold streak at the same time)!

This is a selection that is statistically more likely to hit above expectation.

The questions we need to always ask are:

1) How likely is it that the hot streak (2 & 3) will continue (Return)?

2) How likely is it that the cold streak (-1, -4, -1, -1) will end (Exit)?

Without a doubt, it is the cold streak that makes this enitre selection more likely to Return.

If I only knew what would make

individual numbers more likely to Return...

The only way to figure this out is to track individual numbers in their Return/Exit Frequency (REF).

It should also be noted here that the same numbers referenced above have been hitting above expectation (37 spins) over the last 208 spins (HS Ratio):

+88 +14 +14 +125 +51 +88

The entire selection has a HS Ratio of +63.

Interesting... Totaled we have 380 and divided by 6 we get 63.34 (the HS Ratio is always rounded down).

112 spins later (of course I bet every spin and went up about 150 BU) we eventually encounter:

2 -2 1 2 1 1

and

+161 +50 -61 +87 +50 +13

which totals at 300 and yes, the selection HS Ratio is 50.

Funny, I didn't know the HS Ratio is the average of the individual HS Ratios of the numbers in the selection (I certainly don't calculate it that way intentionally), LOL.

Ok! The PERFECT statistical test!

Track the the REF Rating FROM GAP TO GAP and study the sequences to determine how they line up with a TOTAL GAP (PLE) to try and learn when it is safest to bet.

So there are 6 numbers to track, each with their own history...

1) Track the HS Ratio for all DS

2) Analyze the DS with the highest HS Ratio

2a) Track the REF Ratings on the 6 numbers until the first gap is encountered

2b) Output the full REF Rating sequence for analysis

3) Repeat

The goal is to create criteria that eliminate the most number of sequences from the output (they would be skipped). The lower the number of sequences output, the stronger our criteria.

Documenting a new betting method.

With every bet we can choose to minimize (

*1/2 unit*) or raise (

*2 chips* [1 full unit],

*3 chips* [1.5 units] or

*even more* [confidence keeps climbing with each coup]:

**Sometimes our confidence is blocked by 1 particular event occurring and if it occurs EARLY in the progression, from each bet forward we can bet the raised amount we would have bet at our "unblocked" confidence level.**This can really help our profits because the first few bets were at the minimum amount and then we raise

which increases the profit ABOVE what the raise would have earned from the beginning!

I guess I will call this a Delay Raise.

Examples1) We receive a Board Disparity trigger but our NSP figure is relatively low (below a Cumulative Gap trigger) and the selection(s) with a higher NSP causes some doubt about the bet because it/they could run away with the hits and so we only bet 1/2 unit. On our 3rd bet the selections with the higher NSP get a hit and our selection becomes the highest NSP and so we raise to a full unit and treat the bet as if we had started with a full unit.

Test_Video_100_BU[1]Test_Video_100_BU[2]Test_Video_100_BU[3]Test_Video_100_BU[4] (part 1)