**Debt Recovery** -- Method (Goal Setting) [cont.]

The above chart shows the number of coup attempts, followed by the total number of progression failures (PLE's) achieved at that coup attempt (generated over 16M spins), followed by the percentage chance of a PLE for that attempt.

For example, let's say we have 9 coups taken so far on a particular number (PMI; Progression Movement Indicator; the number of coups since the last PLE), we want to know the percentage chance of a progression failure (PLE) for our 10th coup attempt.

We see that the 9th coup had a percentage chance of failure (PLE) of .073 (7.3%) and our 10th coup attempt will thus fail .081 (8.1%) of the time.

This chart IS designed to scare you but its also designed to show the awesome power of RNG Bias

^{TM} and how we are able to achieve amazing improvements over probability when we are able to accurately identify it.

The point is that with probability working against us in proportion to the length of our recovery, we need to minimize our statistical exposure as much as possible. As you can see from the chart, this means cutting down the number of coups as much as possible.

One of the strongest ways to minimize our exposure is goal setting. Here is the advantage of setting goals:

**Average Coup:** 3 units

SCENARIO A -- Straight debt collection

-886 BU is the debt, recovering at Level 2 which is 4 chips and 12 BU per coup.

That is 74 coups which has a 46.7% chance of failure. So 4.7 times out of 10 we will fail and be forced to recover at Level 3 which looks like this:

-2658 BU is the debt, recovering at Level 3 which is 6 chips and 18 BU per coup.

That is 148 coups which has a 71.8% chance of failure. So over 7 out of 10 times we will fail and be forced to recover at Level 4 which looks like this:

-5316 BU is the debt, recovering at Level 4 which is 8 chips and 24 BU per coup.

That is 222 coups which has a 84.82% chance of failure. So over 8 times out of 10 we will fail and be forced to recover at Level 5 which looks like this:

-8860 BU is the debt, recovering at Level 5 which is 10 chips and 30 BU per coup.

That is 296 coups which has a 91.6% chance of failure. So over 9 times out of 10 we will fail and BUST OUT!

SCENARIO B -- Goal setting

-886 BU is the debt but we set a goal to recover 75% of it at Level 2 which is 4 chips and 12 BU per coup.

That is 56 coups which has a 37.8% chance of failure.

From there we would recover the rest of the debt, which is 222 BU from Level 1 which is what I call "locking in the profits" because NOW if we take a loss, it will only be for -886 BU instead of -2658 BU, saving 1772 BU.

We can set goals based on different things like the total number of coups (like 27 which is a 20% chance of failure), or different target amounts based on previous debt levels achieved, etc.

Goal setting is where the art comes into the science of debt recovery but we should always look to minimize our risk at the lower levels and experience higher risk at the higher levels.

Its not as bad as it first seems because we have a couple of things working in our favor:

1) After a substantial gap, numbers will tend to perform better (faster speed, less gapping).

2) We have a bet selection that identifies groups of numbers that perform far better than expectation and probability (RNG Bias

^{TM})

**Bet Selection** -- Terms

HS RatioThe HS Ratio is the speed at which a number achieves hits. It is the number of spins that a number is above or below expectation; a negative number means it is below expectation (less hits than expectation) and a positive number means above expectation (more hits than expectation). The number represents the actual number of spins that it is above or below, 0 being in perfect accord with expectation.

So looking at the image above, the HS ratio is the first number displayed underneath the cyan DS title. Right now, we have selected DS 25-30 which is why its highlighted in purple; it has a HS Ratio of +493. This means that it has experienced 493 LESS spins than expected for the number of coups generated.

PMIThis is the Progression Movement Indicator which shows the number of coups since the last progression failure (PLE). It is the second number in the list below the DS title. Again, looking at DS 25-30, we can see there have been 17 coups since the last PLE. The PMI figure can be used with the chart from the Debt Recovery section to determine our percentage chance of encountering another PLE; in this case it is 13.38%.

PLE RatioThis is the Progression Loss Event Ratio which shows how many PLE's we have had vs. expectation; a negative number is MORE PLE's than expected and a positive number is LESS PLE's than expected. The number respresents the number of coups that the selection is over or under expectation, 0 being in perfect accord with expectation.

It is the third number in the list below the DS title and so we can see that DS 25-30 has achieved a +209 PLE Ratio.

**Bet Selection** -- Criteria

The primary criteria for bet selection is the HS Ratio. We are looking for numbers that consistently hit within expectation and almost never go far outside of it; think about it, how else are they able to gain such favorable statistics?

Like Forest Gump would say, "A HS Ratio is, as a HS ratio does!". We can very quickly tell if a selection is not performing to its standard; i.e. slowing down in speed.

Generally speaking, we are looking for the selection that is performing the fastest; the highest HS Ratio.

What we are also looking for is

its neighbors to also share a fast speed. Looking again at DS 25-30, we see that the neighbor 22-27 has a +184 HS Ratio and the neighbor 28-33 has a +116 HS Ratio. Note that DS 1-6 & DS 31-36 only have one neighbor, which is actually better!

The reason neighbors come into play is because each immediate neighbor shares 3 numbers with our chosen selection. In a sense, the neighbors are a rating of our overall selection; if both neighbors have a high HS Ratio, that means that our entire selection of 6 numbers is performing very well.

A classic sign that a number is soon to slow down is when one of the neighbors starts losing its HS Ratio. Also, PLE's tend to spread their negative effects to their neighbors; it is very common to see PLE's & BSE's (Black Swan Events; PLE's occurring less than 56 coups of each other) cause their neighbors to do the same.

Let's look at DS 4-9 for a moment. It is the second fastest number on the board with a HS Ratio of +462. It has 810 more coups than expectation (PLE Ratio)! It has also been 243 coups since the last PLE (PMI)!

This DS is truly peforming fantastically but since we already know that, we are only concerned about whether it is likely to have a PLE or not. When we take a deeper look at its neighbors, we start seeing cracks in the armor, specifically DS 1-6.

Two things stand out immediately about this neighbor. First, it has a NEGATIVE PLE Ratio, which means that it has 121 LESS coups per PLE than expected -- it is plagued by PLE's by 121%! Secondly, the red "B" next to the PLE Ratio indicates that it has had (at least) two PLE's in the last 56 coups.

These ugly things about the immediate neighbor of DS 4-9 are very likely to cause it to have a PLE. I would rather enter the shelter (bet virually, just spin through) than actually bet this DS.

Sure, DS 1-6 has an incredible HS ratio of +326 but

the HS Ratio is not the only determiner of the likelihood of a PLE. Even the best numbers on the board will crack eventually and even though they will likely recover very quickly, that doesn't change the fact that we lost money during that short period of time.

Let's briefly examine the other neighbor of DS 4-9, DS 7-12. Everything looks fine here but did you notice a subtle warning sign nearby?

Yes, another BSE with DS 10-15, the neighbor of DS 7-12. Normally, this will not stop me from betting the main DS (4-9 in this example) but as far as the future is concerned it is a strong sign that DS 4-9 is likely to encounter more problems shortly.

**Betting Method** -- Technicals

1) Select the DS you wish by moving the purple cursor with the "Q" and "W" keys; "Q" to move the cursor to the left and "W" to move the cursor to the right.

2) Spin the wheel in your casino.

3) Select the spun number with your mouse from the selection of grey "buttons" at the bottom of the output screen

4) Review the output results:

a) If you received a hit, you will hear a cash register sound and the progression will reset

b) if any number had a PLE, you will hear a "bubbling" series of tones and you can see which selection experienced this by searching for the one with a PMI of 0.

c) if any number had a BSE, you will hear a "steady & repeated" series of tones and you can find that selection by looking for the red "B" next to the PLE Ratio & the PMI of 0.

d) If the progression requires you to change your bet, you will hear a mono-tone beep and the "Bet:" number in the bottom right will indicate the number of units required.

e) If you wish to review the chart for the HS ratio of any number, simply select the proper number with the purple cursor and press "C". The chart screen will show up, showing the entire HS Ratio history for that number. You can also change the selection from the chart screen, using the same keys

**Betting Method** -- Method

TermsKoH -- King of the Hill. Generally speaking, this is the fastest DS on the board; the HS Ratio is the highest. Sometimes a number will be "heir apparent", where the HS ratio hasn't reached the fastest but due to recent performance and the overall statistical picure, it is most likely the actual KoH to be; sometimes we should bet the "heir apparent" due to the risk of a PLE on the current KoH.

QoH -- Queen of the Hill. This is a very fast DS that is contesting for KoH but is not performing as well. We have to be very cognizant of this number and its neighbors because it is the number one threat to our selection (KoH). This is due to the fact that if the QoH heats up, it can overtake the KoH and cause a PLE by "hogging up all the hits"; this is called "the changing of the guard".

Rival Princess -- This is a 3rd DS that is contesting for the QoH spot. This is not always present, but when it is, it can be quite dangerous. Just like with musical chairs, we don't want to be without a seat when the music stops, we want the other guy to be!

The March -- This is the section of the progression that runs: 4 5 6 7 8. If our betting goes beyond this point (10 and beyond), our selection status as KoH is potentially in jeopardy.

**Betting Method** -- Opening

To start we should choose a DS at random and just simply bet it normally. We should make our first few/several/x amount of coups at Level 1 and the rest from the sun deck (half unit). I personally am using 3 bets at Level 1 which has a 2.34% chance of failure.

We need to use the sun deck at some point, so the chances of our recovery getting out of control is minimized due to the 4:1 ratio on the losing bet amount.

We should monitor the hits we receive, if they are within or close to expectation, we should stay on the DS. If our HS Ratio goes strongly negative in relation to the rest of the board, we should switch as soon as we take a coup.

We should keep switching to the fastest DS that has the best neighbors. We are hunting for the KoH that will outperform probability for many hundreds and even thousands of spins.

Eventually we will identify a clear KoH, the HS Ratio is obviously higher than every other DS and its neighbors are at least close to satisfactory.

We should also be able to identify our main threat(s) in the QoH & "rival princess" (if there is one).

**Betting Method** -- Standard play

Betting guidelinesThe KoH should always hit within or close to expectation; as long as we are hitting within or close to expectation, nothing else concerns us. Expectation is 7 spins.

To make sure we are cognizant of any threats, we need to monitor every spin and mentally sort them into the following categories:

Irrelevant -- DS's that pose no threat. They will be slow and not connected to any threat. Sometimes an irrelevant DS will become relevant due to a very large move. We should check after every coup to see if this is happening.

QoH Leeching -- This is when we get 1, and more importantly, 2 or more hits on the QoH before our selection hits. It indicates that the QoH is outperforming our selection and could indicate an impending "changing of the guard" (COG).

QoH Neighbor -- The QoH has allies and they are planning a rebellion! Strong neighbor performance is not in our favor.

Rival Princess Leeching -- The same as QoH leeching.

Rival Princess Neighbor -- The same as QoH Neighbor.

Our Neighbor -- We have allies too!

By mentally sorting these categories we can tell, we can feel the pull, if our number is being heavily opposed to the point of potentially causing a PLE.

Normal behavior is getting a hit in The March that is immediately follwed by at least 1 (more than 1 is preferable) hit within expectation.

Anytime we get two hits outside of expectation in a row, it is cause for concern and we should know the reason why, having mentally identified which threat(s) are leeching our hits.

Anytime our HS Ratio is surpassed by another selection it is grave cause for concern.

Anytime there is a BSE with one of our immediate neighbors, it is grave cause for concern.

Anytime one of our neighbors has a PLE and its HS Ratio goes negative or we just went deep in the progression, it is cause for concern.

If we have reason for concern and feel it is no longer safe for our selection we need to take one of the following actions:

1) Switch to the QoH/Rival Princess (QoH Apparent)

2) Enter the Sun Deck (bet 1/2 units)

3) Enter the Shelter (bet virtually, spin through)

Sometimes we will switch between QoH/KoH, back and forth until one side finally wins -- one side WILL finally win and we must strive to always be on the dominant side or at least on the Sun Deck or in the Shelter when the battle is over.

General Betting Rules**GREEN**KoH status assured. No worries if a YELLOW hit preceded this. If a RED hit preceded this, proceed with caution as another GREEN hit is needed to maintain KoH status.

**YELLOW**KoH status is strong but an immediate GREEN hit is required. Something is most likely wrong if a second YELLOW hit is obtained or if RED-GREEN-YELLOW.

**RED**KoH status is in serious question. Without an immediate GREEN hit, this is most likely no longer the KoH. Strongly consider switching numbers, hit the sun deck or take shelter if there is no GREEN hit, immediately following this. Two of these in a row is no longer KoH.

Let's be clear, the goal is to dodge the bullet when it comes, or at least take a flesh wound [Sun Deck

^{TM}].

When it stops looking like a KoH, we need to minimize our risk.