Author Topic: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?  (Read 1404 times)

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dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2017, 11:24:18 AM »
A table gambler thinks he can predict the color of the next spin.
A cilinder player thinks he can predict the  sector or the neighbors on the cilinder the next spin.

After 6x the Voisins du Zero the probability is not changed.

The fallacy is for both gamblers the same. Cilinder players can also use statistic phenomena.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2017, 12:23:34 PM »
 To put it on simple terms... AP is limiting degrees of freedom.
    Let's see what is HE . It's just existence of 1 number ( in USA 2) that casino do not pay. Obviously if you bet zero and it hits they do pay, but payment is reduced comparing with real odds of the event.
   If player gets to " take out some numbers out equation " ( limit degrees of freedom) he will have advantage over casino. It's not because player is superman, but because wheel and ball themselves offer this advantage to the player.
    Anyone can do a scatter chart, take a casino card and look distance between first number ball beat and last number( result)... mark these distances on casino card. Collect 100 trial's this way and you will see yourself where that magical " half of wheel that offer advantage" is.
    Obviously such a test will be a misrepresentation of what is really going on there and good vb player does it a bit different, but such a test is good enough for the purpose.
   Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself. You can repeat the test and compare results if any doubts persist. Ball has only that much to jump. 
 
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kav

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2017, 12:36:23 PM »
Mr Perfect,

You didn't answer my question about biased numbers going cold.

But to your comment that "ball has only that much to jump:
1. Then there is the difficulty of predicting the 1rst number that ball hits.
2. have you observed online live games where balls do all crazy things?
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2017, 01:28:49 PM »
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2017, 01:55:26 PM »
Sry, Kav, didn't realise sleeping numbers question was directed to me... the thing is that bias is not numbers, but imperfections(defects). This defects affect ball jumps and result in some numbers getting hit more often and others less often then expected probability dictates. All what affects ball jumps will affect resulting numbers as well (conditions). Thats why if player do not want his numbers 'go to sleep', he should stay awake as well in both his data taking and during playing session.
     1. To predict first number ball will hit, player should develop some vb skills, its a good tool for a task, this is exactly what vb is supposed to do.
     2. Online or offline, ball jumps are crazy thing, however can be statistically limited. l wouldn"t advise to play online wheels for someone who can not beat b&m ones first...
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2017, 02:13:20 PM »
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
And what? Everyone will become a player suddenly, or wheel manufacturers will create a perfect wheel? Not in my life time, l gess. If someone told me from the start how much effort is needed to perform AP properly, l would consider to so something else instead. How many players you know, how many tables were closed in front of your nose because someone else was playing? l know 5 players worldwide and l lost one table only to others so far...
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2017, 03:26:05 PM »
Nobody will become winners and manufacturers also not worry about that. You simply not get mine mind - talk is about forums....
 

Real

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2017, 05:45:37 PM »
Quote
Even biased numbers can have fluctuations and disappear or get cold for considerable periods of time. Believing otherwise is Gambler's Fallacy.

Of course biased numbers have fluctuations.  So what?  It's called variance.  Over time the players edge handily dominates the variance.  This means the longer the AP plays, the more they will win. 
« Last Edit: August 22, 2017, 05:47:16 PM by Real »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2017, 09:11:50 PM »
Nobody can define the advantage  and edge of an AP player. Without definitions opponents speak different languages.
 
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Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2017, 10:21:15 PM »
Yes strange guy. Next time you will say, that nobody can define advantage  world chess champion against you , then world boxing champion...

I remember mine maybe first wining more or less serious was against such man,  maybe like you ....He also was certain that i cant prove him, but he was very brave and he accepted mine proposittion to compete against me. We played 100 spins and i must hit right 65 times for big win and 57 for small win . I hitted more than 70.
That guy lost quite serious amount money.
But he was very brave ( or maybe stupid ) but after loss he try his luck second time... and lost again ... :)

You can do something similar,  if you are so sure, that you are right :). I think you can find competitors .....
 
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Real

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2017, 02:18:52 AM »
Bebediktus,

I've explained to him what the advantage means and how it's computed, but he doesn't understand it.  It's the language barrier.  If he knew what it meant to have an advantage then he wouldn't be claiming to have one with his "random rows."
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2017, 08:01:14 AM »
Advantage play (VB and Bias) is NOT a gambler s fallacy thing.
But its not practical.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2017, 08:53:41 AM »
You can not compare a match between humans and our struggling with the roulette without a mind.
The advantage of a chess player is his knowledge of the game,  his experience his talent and in my case my age.
Bias roulette devices does not consist. Manipulated ones many.

How can we compare an AP player and a statistic player  in a match. I play roulette more than 40 years in a landbased casino and I have never met an real AP player. AP players exist only at forums on internet.
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2017, 09:02:00 AM »
Maybe you have meet an advantage player but you didn t realize he was one.
Simply because you do not know what AP means.
So you didn t see the signs.
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2017, 09:07:06 AM »
Seriously now...
In my casino I have spotted some tilted wheels ( we need them to apply VB)
In order to be an APer you have to gather at least 100 spins clockwise and 100 anticlockwise to check the scatter after ball drop and see IF there is a constant one.
Then in all these data gathering you have to train your eyes and brain to recognize a cairtain ball rev to the end.
And also make a map wheel speeds in order to follow the rotor speed changes.
Then you have to have at least 100 chips BR to risk.
And then you have to have at least one trained partner that he is betting for you ( in order for the play to be undercovered)
A lot of requirements that are not possible to happen.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2017, 09:18:35 AM by Duncan »
 
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