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Author Topic: Using Martingale on Baseball Games  (Read 1117 times)

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Jake007

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Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« on: August 18, 2016, 10:30:24 PM »
We know Martingale doesnt work on roulette because of table/casino limits, but theoretically it works 100% of the time with no limits and unlimited funds.

So Ive been thinking of a way to employ Martingale elsewhere. I grew up playing baseball and I like that it is either a win/loss endgame. No tie games like in soccer. So how can we do Martingale on this?

Historically, the most any team has won or lost is 24 games in a row and that has not happened for 100 years. 20 or 21 game streaks happen once in a while... say every few years. Each year we see streaks like 13 or 16 win/loss game streaks.

Typical Martingale of 1/2/4/8/16/32/64/128/256/512/1024 which is so far an 11 step martingale. You can win for decades betting this way on sports betting sites if you see a win or loss streak of at least 10 games and then beginning Martingale betting. Im not sure how often that happens in a 162 game season x 30 teams.

So what do you guys think of this idea? How can I make this better? A smaller step martingale? Are their calculators for that? GL!
« Last Edit: August 18, 2016, 10:34:45 PM by Jake007 »


 
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palestis

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Re: Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 10:56:56 PM »
We know Martingale doesnt work on roulette because of table/casino limits, but theoretically it works 100% of the time with no limits and unlimited funds.

So Ive been thinking of a way to employ Martingale elsewhere. I grew up playing baseball and I like that it is either a win/loss endgame. No tie games like in soccer. So how can we do Martingale on this?

Historically, the most any team has won or lost is 24 games in a row and that has not happened for 100 years. 20 or 21 game streaks happen once in a while... say every few years. Each year we see streaks like 13 or 16 win/loss game streaks.

Typical Martingale of 1/2/4/8/16/32/64/128/256/512/1024 which is so far an 11 step martingale. You can win for decades betting this way on sports betting sites if you see a win or loss streak of at least 10 games and then beginning Martingale betting. Im not sure how often that happens in a 162 game season x 30 teams.

So what do you guys think of this idea? How can I make this better? A smaller step martingale? Are their calculators for that? GL!
Jake this is hardly a new idea in roulette anyway. Just as your studies conclude that the average win/lose streak is about 13 games and the max. streak is about 20 games  (since the record of 24 was 100 yrs. ago), then it makes sense to bet the 14-20 games range.
The same idea can be applied in roulette. In fact this is the basis of all my systems.
You have to get used to the idea of missing winning opportunities, by betting more often, and instead concentrate on a range of bets between the frequent average length of a streak, and its maximum. All previous bets before the streak reaches its average, are considered virtual losses, as long as you would've lost if you played them. If you won in the virtual simulation period, then you have to restart.
If it didn't  make any difference how long the past streak was, as some members claim, then you wouldn't be able to determine the maximum length of a streak. And you would be seeing 10 red in one moment, then 20 in another and then 30 in another. But this simply doesn't happen, except in extremely rare occasions.
 
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Jake007

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Re: Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 11:30:49 PM »
No its not new at all, just thinking out loud how to capitalize on this. It seems much better to run a martingale on baseball streaks than to run it on roulette since you would never have a baseball team losing or winning 40 games in a row (win/loss=red/black). Payouts are even better in many cases than 1:1.

Here are a couple of articles I came across...

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx/?theart=420867

http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2015/04/28/winning-streaks-in-baseball/

A team going on an 11 game streak is big news, so even that is rare. About half of all 3 game streak end on the 4th game.
 

Reyth

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Re: Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2016, 07:02:58 PM »
Not being a sports bettor but only having observed posts of sports bettors, the only downside I can think of is of when a bookie realizes what you are doing, they will simply try and screw you or ban you.

So I would set up multiple bookies to work with that are not affiliated.

Man it soulds so awesome because after a significant losing streak, the odds go up don't they and you look INSANE betting large against the strong team...
« Last Edit: August 19, 2016, 07:27:40 PM by Reyth »
 

Jake007

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Re: Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2016, 07:19:49 PM »
Not being a sports bettor but only having observed posts of sports bettors, the only downside I can think of is of when a bookie realizes what you are doing, they will simply try and screw you or ban you.

So I would set up multiple bookies to work with that are not affiliated.

Man it soulds so awesome because after a significant losing streak, the odds go up don't they and you look INSANE betting large against the strong team...

Exactly what I am thinking. I use NitrogenSports since you can bet 10 cents or $10,000 since its all bitcoin and dont need to worry what the bookie thinks. I need to create a betting system based on my idea. Here is one, a bit different since they bet on streaks... Say a team has 3 wins and the opponent has 3 loses, you bet on the winning team...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/565465-anybody-using-system-streak-system-bases.html
 
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GameNeverOver

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Re: Using Martingale on Baseball Games
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 05:24:44 AM »
Hey guys. Long time no see. Lots of things happened in the meanwhile. Lots of new hard lessons learned. And few sweet, damn sweet victories fought. :)

Enough talking sh*t - let me get to the point:
Dear Jake007, I like your approach. I like it a lot. I like it to the point where few yrs ago I was using something similar of this on football (soccer) but one day I woke up and realized that YES, IT IS WORKING, but the profit you get for the time you invest is simply not worth it. Time, that invisible tasteless ingredient brother, is the only thing that is really limited. Let me draw you a picture:
1) you wait for a team to lose 10 in a row: how many times this happens in one season?
2) after this happens, you start the Marti: 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512: you risk 1023 to get a profit ranging from -100 to +360. No, I'm not wrong: if you take the time required to analyze the odds offered from bookies, you'll notice that after lots of consecutive lost games they offer lower odds than the expected high odds.
3) you might say that this approach won't take lots of your free time, but think about that again: checking the results will take at least half or hour from your waking day.

Now lets take these three and mix them all into one big pina colada:
1) there are too few of these in one season to build a profitable approach on them.
2) lets say that there are 5 opportunities to cash on in one season: 2 are of the (-100) and 3 of the (+360) = +880$ (this is just an example, so don't punch me).
3) the MLB season lasts around 6 months. There are games every day, sometimes one team got 2 games in one day. Ok, let get blind for a moment on that fact, but 6Mx30D=180 daysX0.5-1h=90-180hrs. Let take the middle - 135 hours from your life. 880/135=6.5$. You are from USA right? The hour rate is somewhere 8.5$-10$ for the easiest job out there: 135 x 8.5 = 1147.5$. Where is the motive to risk your hard earned money + nerves to get less then what you can earn doing easy jobs?

What I want to tell you is this:
RESPECT YOUR TIME! RESPECT THE HOURS YOU ARE GIVEN! AND INVEST THEM WISELY.
To be honest, its wiser to spend these 135 hours reading novels (thats enough time to consume 20-30 (150-250 pages) books), or hanging with your family / close friends (create memories - these are priceless), or furthering your education and expanding your minds capacities for procession of data (and use that working brain to earn big bucks) on whatever way you please then wasting them waiting for Baltimore Orioles or the Cubs to lose 10 consecutive games.. I think you get the point.

Trust me - I walked your way and its not worth the pain you'll feel few years later when you'll realize how short life actually is.

=GNO=
 
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