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BKS11

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Kavouras bet
« on: May 01, 2014, 02:24:53 PM »
As a card counter I stay mostly away from roulette. to my opinion ( I can be wrong) we can use strategies but strategies lose in the long run if we play a game what gives us no betting advantage what so ever. Yes you can win beating standard deviation in the short run. Also I agree there is some misunderstanding about gamblers fallacy and what is actually the long run. Another discussing might be that we can not play for the long run cause we are outlived by the long run. In that case we can indeed play for the short run and be lucky the rest of our lives.

 I have seen some interesting strategies here and the most interesting is kavouras bet. I would like to see a follow up on it and how to use it using it towards using some kind of progression. negative or positive. I use it as entertainment but it is a funny an chaotic bet and that is what I like about it. It hits very often actually so in a way we should be able to gain with a smart strategy around it. the point is what is the smartest strategy using this bet?

Look forward to the answers,

Stu

But again Kav we look  forward to your follow up on this.

newbielink:http://www.roulette30.com/p/kavouras-bet.html [nonactive]
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 03:56:47 PM by kav »


 
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palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2014, 05:11:14 PM »
[Admin. Update: You can now Buy the full strategy of the Kavouras Bet]

As a card counter I stay mostly away from roulette. to my opinion ( I can be wrong) we can use strategies but strategies lose in the long run if we play a game what gives us no betting advantage what so ever. Yes you can win beating standard deviation in the short run. Also I agree there is some misunderstanding about gamblers fallacy and what is actually the long run. Another discussing might be that we can not play for the long run cause we are outlived by the long run. In that case we can indeed play for the short run and be lucky the rest of our lives.

 I have seen some interesting strategies here and the most interesting is kavouras bet. I would like to see a follow up on it and how to use it using it towards using some kind of progression. negative or positive. I use it as entertainment but it is a funny an chaotic bet and that is what I like about it. It hits very often actually so in a way we should be able to gain with a smart strategy around it. the point is what is the smartest strategy using this bet?

Look forward to the answers,

Stu

But again Kav we look  forward to your follow up on this.

I mentioned earlier that I tested the KAVOURAS BET. It's not unusual that it wins relatively often (after all, you play 20 numbers scattered around the wheel and the table). But if you play it as an exclusive system, sooner or later you will run into situations where those 20 numbers in this bet will fail to come up for quite a few spins. And using a progression on 20 numbers can be very vey expensive, it can wipe out all the winnings you had up to that point, if those 20 numbers decide to disappear for a period of consecutive spins. 
In the few days that I tested this system I found that the 20 numbers in this bet  don't exceed 5 spins without the presence of any of those 20 #'s. Meaning that if you sit in front of the roulette, and place VIRTUAL BETS on those numbers, (betting them in your mind, rather than betting them in the table with actual $'s), and wait till you lose 4 consecutive bets, according to my testing, the 5th bet should come your way. In other words you saved all your money, that you otherwise would've lost in 4 bets (and it's a lot of money even without progression), and by betting real money only in the 5th and maybe the 6th spin, your chances are very high that you will hit one of those 20 numbers. Simply because, the testing proved that the limit of this bet failing to show up is no more that 5 consecutive spins.
But to get a more accurate picture I would test this system for thousands of spins to come up with a more robust figure. So whatever the limit of consecutive spins is, where the numbers in this bet don't come up, you can adjust the numbers of your VIRTUAL LOSSES accordingly , before you commence the actual betting. Even if it will seems that you lost many opportunities for profit if you had skipped the virtual bets. All you need is one time of consecutive actual losses, and your winnings of all the previous successful bets, will be wiped out in just one bad time. The price you pay  is WAITING TIME when you introduce the VIRTUAL BETTING, IN JUST ABOUT EVERY SYSTEM THERE IS, but the benefits of getting closer to the success chances are unmatched.
I use VIRTUAL LOSS betting in all my systems and it proved to be a life saver. It makes the difference between LOSING and WINNING in the long run.
Try this simple trick. Stand in front of a roulette and make a virtual bet on any 50% chance numbers ( R/B,  O/E,  H/L), Keep betting (virtually) spin after spin. See how many times you will lose  in a row. I bet you will hit it within maybe 5-7 bets. IF IT ever GETS THERE.
However if you bet right from the start with actual bets, and you lose, you have to double your bet each time only to win your initial bet. With $5 chip minimum, your 5 bet progression will look like   5  10  20 40  80  ( $155 risk to win just $5).
The same logic applies in the KAVOURAS BET.
As far as progression in the kavouras bet  is a personal choice. It's not easy to use progression on 20 numbers scattered around the table. I would use one of the groups in this bet ( the 6 number line 31-36) as an equalizer. Meaning I will sacrifice it to make no profit, only to give me my bet's money back if it hits. Then I will have extra money to increase the bets in the other 14 numbers. Where the profit will be more substantial, as I will only have 14 number progression instead of 20.
Besides I would only play the kavouras bet 2 times after 4 VIRTUAL LOSSES. Maybe 3. There is always another cycle where the small exception to the overwhelming winning chances will be too weak o prevail.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 03:58:56 PM by kav »
 
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BKS11

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2014, 04:19:43 PM »
That is a good piece of information you have there. I fully agree with it, waiting 3 times until you start betting. I
have a few questions about it what I not fully comprehend. I quote...

"As far as progression in the kavouras bet  is a personal choice. It's not easy to use progression on 20 numbers scattered around the table. I would use one of the groups in this bet ( the 6 number line 31-36) as an equalizer. Meaning I will sacrifice it to make no profit, only to give me my bet's money back if it hits. Then I will have extra money to increase the bets in the other 14 numbers"

lets say the 4Th bet does not hit you play the 5Th bet in a up when you lose progression?. Not really know how that looks like when you talk about equalizing, sacrificing in order to break even. Could you give me visual example.
Lets say the 4Th bet does hit. is it not better waiting for a virtual not hit 3x before you bet again?

Thanks a lot and again very good info.

 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2014, 11:10:28 PM »
Ok.
The kavouras bet is played as in the picture attached. 1 chip on (0-1-2-3) 5 chips on the 5 splits, and 2 chips on the street 31-36. Total bet
 8 chips. The NET profit (if it hits) is 1 CHIP  if 0-1-2-3 hits, 10 chips if any of the 5 splits hits, and 4 chips if 31-36 hits.
If the number in the bet doesn't come out with the first actual bet (remember you play 3 bets VIRTUALLY and wait till you lose all 3 of them. Then you play 2 bets with actual money). So I you lose the 4th bet, you play the 5th bet with more chips (meaning 3 chips on 0-1-2-3,  -  2 chips on the 5 splits, and 5 on 31-36. TOTAL bet 18 chips. And the total chips with the previous lost bet is 26 chips. If it hits the NET profit will be as follows: 1 chip if 0-1-2-3 hits, 10 chips if any of the 5 splits hits, and 4 chips if 31-36 hits. After 2 bets I don't think it's worth using a HIGHER PROGRESSION, to continue. The risk of losing a large bet is not worth what you will get back for profit.
What I mean by EQUALIZER in general means that when you bet on a system, in some of the numbers of the system you don't place enough chips to make a profit . Instead you put just enough chips to get your total bet back, without profit. But if the rest of the numbers in the system hit then you make a bigger profit. This way the progression doesn't become expensive.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2014, 04:15:52 PM by palestis »
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2014, 11:28:35 PM »
By the way personal choice( in the kavouras bet),  I mean is that if you have a big bank roll the second time you place the bet (if you lost the 1st bet), instead of putting 18 chips you can increase all the bets by putting more chips, and you will have a much bigger profit. On the other hand if you lose the 2nd bet too, you are faced with a very large progression.
That's y I avoid betting on many numbers, like Black /Red or 2 dozens or 2 columns. The progression becomes very very expensive and the profit very small. That's y I prefer a few numbers like 3 corner bets (12 numbers), or 2 street bets (12 numbers). And I use a longer VIRTUAL BETTING period, like 5-8 TIMES, before I start with real money bets.

Here is a system that I posted today in the system section with a picture. It works nicely and has very little risk because it's only 9 numbers. .
On a score card like the one I show in the pic. below, you place a DOT next to the line where each spun number belongs to. By line I mean 3 numbers in the same line ( I call it TRAVERSE). As numbers come out you keep posting them in their respective line by a dot. After a while you will notice that some lines (traverses) will appear more frequently than others. ( HAVE MORE DOTS). What you are looking for is just 3 lines (9 numbers total), that clearly prevail among all 12 lines in the table.
Once you determine the 3 front runner lines you start betting on them. (in the pic. they would be 4-5-6,  19-20-21,  and 28,29,30 ).
The LOGIC behind it is that when some groups become trendy (appearing more often than others), as it is the case with these 3 lines in the pic. they cannot simply shut down and stop appearing after you start betting. NOT ALL 3 OF THEM AT THE SAME TIME. One of the 9 numbers in the 3 groups of lines is bound to appear at least one more time in the next 1 to 7 spins. Once you hit it, you stop and start all over again with another score card. It's not that hard to make a progression schedule for 3 lines to make sure there is profit at any time you hit it. And being only 9 numbers the progression is very cheap and won't wipe out your bankroll. I would bet these 3 lines for about 8 spins, and if they don't appear I would stop. YOU CAN ALSO APPLY VIRTUAL LOSS BETS for the first 3-4 spins and then actual money bets for another 5 spins. I found this system very hard to lose. VERY NICE SYSTEM, few numbers (bigger payoffs), LOW PROGRESSION RISK, and a LOGIC behind it that makes a lot of sense. (A clear trend in 3 different groups cannot normally shut down, in all 3 groups at the same time).
 

kav

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2014, 07:22:38 PM »
Hi Palestis,
Thank you very much for the interesting posts. You are a great asset to our forum.
At this point I don't want to disclose more about the Kavouras bet.
However, the work you have done around it is extremely interesting. I appreciate it. I especially like the "equalizer" idea of keeping your bets low. Though this is not how the original system is played, is a very good example of what I mean, when I talk about the "flexibility" of this bet. For example you can divide the main bet into smaller bets and follow a different money management for each.
Thanks again.

PS: I think I know these casino cards  ;-)
« Last Edit: May 03, 2014, 07:30:35 PM by kav »
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2014, 11:55:58 PM »
PS: I think I know these casino cards  ;-)

Yup from Loutraki casino.
Very nice score cards, something you don't get in US casinos.
I spent 10 years there, never missed 1 day. Though I didn't play every day, I recorded hundreds of numbers every day, same roulettes. After every system I was told about or discovered myself, I went to work and field tested it against thousands and thousands of spins in live roulettes. Not online RNG. That's how I came up with many many statistics about a lot of things. Statistics, anyone can use for practical applications rather than philosophical arguments. That's how I know that a corner bet cannot fail to appear for more than 74 spins 98% of the time. A dozen or column, cannot fail to appear in 22 consecutive spins by 92% of the time, in more than 26 spins 96% of the time, and by 99% no more than 28 spins. And many other combinations of numbers either on the table or the wheel itself. Unfortunately there in no 100%. There is always a possibility that a record can be broken somewhere in a casino in some part of the world. The nice thing about having recorded close to 500,000 spins is that the statistics derived will be there for ever, unchanged. THERE IS NO EXPIRATION DATE ON ROULETTE NUMBERS.
 

Mario12346

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2014, 10:00:45 PM »
Palestis 2 questions: How much long term success have you had with the Kavouras bet, and also do you play different systems on a daily basis or switch every so often?

-Marios
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2014, 12:15:13 AM »
Palestis 2 questions: How much long term success have you had with the Kavouras bet, and also do you play different systems on a daily basis or switch every so often?

TO MARIOS
Actually I don't play CAVOURAS BET. Though it looks very good. I prefer to play 12 numbers or less. I just read it in the website, and tested it for a few days just to prove a point to someone.
Meaning I tested it to see how many spins go by without a number in the cavouras bet showing up. I found to be about 5 spins max.
But the test was only for a few days. To come up with a better more secure figure you have to test it for thousands of spins. To play it you wait by playing VIRTUAL BETS and lose, up to  2-3 spins before the observed and tested limit. Then you bet with real money 2-3 times, or more if you can afford it and you are willing to risk the bankroll just in case you fell into a rare exception.  Just like after 10 REDS, usually
the next spin or 2 will be BLACK. But rarely it can go up to another 6 reds. I play the same system too, when I see 10 same EC's. But only for 2-3 times. If I don't catch it , I'll get it in the next cycle when the same conditions reappear. it's extremely rare to run into 2 rare exceptions in  2 different consecutive cycles.
I play a bunch of systems.
When I write on the score card, I look out for conditions that fit my systems. I usually have 6 going at the same time. Missing DOZENS, COLUMNS, 3 MISSING CORNER BETS, MISSING REDS AFTER 10 blacks  ETC.
 MY EXPERTISE is in the missing spectrum, rather than the TREND, because I found out that when you observe a trend it's usually too late to continue. and when I get in to follow it, it turns the opposite direction.
I also like the missing numbers system using the formula  700/X. Where X is the numbers that have not shown up. For example 10 numbers have a maximum (ultra conservative) consecutive missing  limit of 70 spins. (700/10).
So if I see 10 number missing for 65 spins I jump in and play them.
12 numbers have a missing limit of 58 spins (700/12). You get the point. The problem is, that those conditions are hard to run into. It's at the edge of the extreme. Meaning that you wait for a long long time to see a group of numbers to come close to their missing limit that I SET. But that's the only way to play with 99.9% certainty. it's not unusual to wait 10 hours to see a condition I just described. But i don't mind.
PATIENCE IS THE GREATEST VIRTUE IF YOU WANT TO WIN IN THE LONG RUN.
 

Mario12346

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2014, 09:08:32 AM »
 
Palestis,
Thankyou for your expertize it is of exstreme importance! Without going into too much detail as Im going to work shortly and just checking the internet with a coffee before I go...but I just want to clarify something. For example usually I will wait for a string of 10 EC then bet against it with a 5 stop loss in which case I would accept a defeat which can be dissheartening for a while as a couple of days of hard concentration and money earned are lost; but you will bet only 3 times and then if it loses you will continue the martingale on a seporate cycle?
For example:  10 blacks have spun on table 1 so I bet £5 on red. black spins again so I bet £10 on red, black spins again so I bet £20. I leave the table and wait. Table 2 has just spun 10 reds so I would now bet £40 on black on table 2?
Its an interesting idea. If I have interpreted your idea correctly then what is your experience with this strategy? What happens if red spins another 3 times, would we move table again and wait for another cycle of 10 and then bet £320, £640, £1280 or call a defeat earlier on in the strategy?

-Marios
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2014, 12:59:31 AM »

Palestis,
Thankyou for your expertize it is of exstreme importance! Without going into too much detail as Im going to work shortly and just checking the internet with a coffee before I go...but I just want to clarify something. For example usually I will wait for a string of 10 EC then bet against it with a 5 stop loss in which case I would accept a defeat which can be dissheartening for a while as a couple of days of hard concentration and money earned are lost; but you will bet only 3 times and then if it loses you will continue the martingale on a seporate cycle?
For example:  10 blacks have spun on table 1 so I bet £5 on red. black spins again so I bet £10 on red, black spins again so I bet £20. I leave the table and wait. Table 2 has just spun 10 reds so I would now bet £40 on black on table 2?
Its an interesting idea. If I have interpreted your idea correctly then what is your experience with this strategy? What happens if red spins another 3 times, would we move table again and wait for another cycle of 10 and then bet £320, £640, £1280 or call a defeat earlier on in the strategy?

-Marios

If you got the money you can do it the way you are telling. My experience with this system is that I haven't seen 2 lost cycles in a row yet. (in live casino I mean)
Meaning I have not seen 2 cycles where there were 10 REDS and continued with another 5 RED, twice in a row in 2 different or the same roulette. That has not happen to me yet. so it must be VERY RARE.
However you can try the system differently. instead of waiting for 10 EC's (which takes time to happen), you can play it when you see 6-7 same EC's  in a row, or even 5. Then play the other for 2-3 times. You save time and at the same time the progression won't do you big damage if you lost. Try it for fun just to test how it works this way. You can test it with a casino   like Parklane casino which is live dealer with live players. The real thing, only one in the world. (if you don't know it already). They have an option that you can play without real money. Not even anything to download. you enter any name and password and you can play with $500 they give you. After some time they disconnect you, but you can go back in, in 3 seconds without missing any numbers on the score board, with any password. you can do it for as many times as you want. But my research was done in a live casino. I played the one in Dublin before and also WILLIAM HILL CASINO, but where I am now (USA) ,they don't allow me to play with money, because USA doesn't allow online gambling.
But another way I play is not only lose by VIRTUAL BETTING, (10 REDS means you lost virtually if you were playing black 10 times right?), but losing the entire cycle virtually. In your case you wait for 10 EC's and then play the opposite 5 times.  In effect you wait for 15 reds. then play the system next time you see 10, with real money. But you are going to wait for ever. Because after 10 red 98% of the time it will bring a black in the next 5 spins. So you are never going to play. I do it because I play 12 numbers like a dozen or 3 corner bets that hasn't come up for 7 spins or more, and I play it 5 times because the progression is very cheap. THERE YOU CAN USE VIRTUAL LOSS CYCLE because it happens faster.
By the way I posted a big article about the conversation you had with BERETTA. Read it is very interesting.
bye

/
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 12:28:07 AM by kav »
 

Mario12346

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2014, 01:21:41 AM »
I responded a little on the other thread and Ill write more on this one tomorow night after Ive been at work all day, Im tired now. But Im interested in the LIVE Irish Casino, even just for fun or small bets, the idea of a real Casino online entices me. Another thing, when we talk about for example 10 reds in a row if there is a zero in there do you count the zero as part of the string of reds? Because I have been doing. If I see 9 reds and then a zero I will still bet on black!
Another thing as you were talking about virtual bets. Usually after Ive been betting on a string of 10 my progression will always be £5, £10, £20, £40, however if Ive had a day off work and plenty time and Ive made a decent amount of money that day I will sometimes wait for 11 spins and then start at £10, or 12 or 13 spins and start at £25 or £50 but most times it changes before I can bet!
-Marios
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2014, 04:12:47 PM »
I responded a little on the other thread and Ill write more on this one tomorow night after Ive been at work all day, Im tired now. But Im interested in the LIVE Irish Casino, even just for fun or small bets, the idea of a real Casino online entices me. Another thing, when we talk about for example 10 reds in a row if there is a zero in there do you count the zero as part of the string of reds? Because I have been doing. If I see 9 reds and then a zero I will still bet on black!
Another thing as you were talking about virtual bets. Usually after Ive been betting on a string of 10 my progression will always be £5, £10, £20, £40, however if Ive had a day off work and plenty time and Ive made a decent amount of money that day I will sometimes wait for 11 spins and then start at £10, or 12 or 13 spins and start at £25 or £50 but most times it changes before I can bet!
-Marios

YES if you see 9 REDS and a ZERO it's still 10 spins of NON-BLACK. and it counts as 10 spins. Sure if you have more time the more you wait (11, 12 spins), the closer you come to success without having spent any money, which means  the money you saved you can bet them for a bigger damage. This is what WINNING THE ROULETTE is all about. HAVING THE PATIENCE TO WAIT (VIRTUAL LOSS), UNTIL YOU COME VERY CLOSE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT YOU HAVE FOUND TO WORK EACH AND EVERY TIME, 99% of the time, as opposed to probability that  the textbooks mandate applied liberally WITHOUT REFERENCE IN THE  REAL LIFE FACTS
these 3 pics are from the Irish casino in Dublin. One the  LOGIN DEMO page and the other from an actual scene inside. There are no players shown because it's early in the morning in Dublin. Later you will see live customers playing. And it's under many names  1spin.com
or luckylivecasino.com
 

palestis

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2014, 06:57:50 PM »
for Mario.

here is the Irish casino in Dublin in action with LIVE PLAYERS.
Where you place bets along with other people present in the casino. It's the best of all of online casinos, RNG or live dealer ONLY out of a STUDIO like WILIAM HILL. AT least you know that they can not cheat you.. The number that comes out is the same for the online player as it is for the live player.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2014, 11:00:14 PM by palestis »
 

Real

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Re: Kavouras bet
« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2014, 12:32:52 AM »
Quote
YES if you see 9 REDS and a ZERO it's still 10 spins of NON-BLACK. and it counts as 10 spins. Sure if you have more time the more you wait (11, 12 spins), the closer you come to success without having spent any money, which means  the money you saved you can bet them for a bigger damage. This is what WINNING THE ROULETTE is all about. HAVING THE PATIENCE TO WAIT (VIRTUAL LOSS), UNTIL YOU COME VERY CLOSE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT YOU HAVE FOUND TO WORK EACH AND EVERY TIME, 99% of the time, as opposed to probability that  the textbooks mandate applied liberally WITHOUT REFERENCE IN THE  REAL LIFE FACTS-Palestis

The probability of seeing black on the very next spin is 18/37.

After having witnessed a run of 10 reds in a row, the probability of seeing black on the very next spin is still only 18/37. 

The probability of seeing two blacks in a row from the very first spin is (18/37)^2
The probability of seeing two more blacks in a row after 10 blacks have just hit is also (18/37)^2
The probability of seeing two reds in a row after 10 blacks have just hit is also (18/37)^2

Past spins have no effect, whatsoever, on future spins since:

1. The dealer does not block a number after it has just hit.

2. The same number of pockets remain on the wheel at each spin

3. Therefore the odds remain the same, regardless of what has hit in the past.

Playing the virtual loss game is a complete waste of time since the odds don't change from one spin to the next.  This means that waiting around is pointless.

Sorry, but those are the real facts.

-Real

« Last Edit: May 11, 2014, 02:29:31 AM by Real »